View Poll Results: How will SCOTUS rule?

Voters
60. You may not vote on this poll
  • States can ban SSM and not recognize them from other states

    2 3.33%
  • States can ban SSM but have to recognize them from other states

    8 13.33%
  • States cannot ban SSM but do not have to recognize them from other states

    1 1.67%
  • States cannot ban SSM and have to recognize them from other states

    45 75.00%
  • No ruling, lack of standing

    1 1.67%
  • Something else

    3 5.00%
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Thread: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

  1. #121
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by WorldWatcher View Post
    That is an issue of Public Accommodation laws, and has nothing to do with Civil Marriage. Civil Marriage is between the spouses and the government. Anytime you are talking about "third parties" (i.e. businesses providing services) you are not talking Civil Marriage law.

    You know that there was no Civil Marriage for same-sex couples in the Sweetcakes (Oregon), Masterpiece Cakes (Colorado) and Elane Photography (New Mexico) cases right? Those were issues under Public Accommodation laws since there was no Civil Marriage in those States at the time.


    >>>>
    -I do not know the way the law would interpret it, but the underlying fact is economic and financial inter-connectivity. And that means that everyone is connected and Civil Marriage is not only between the primary actors as superficially possibly thought. It has consequences via many laws and connected rights for later payments to and from government. The external effects of these payments affect everybody. It goes further, however, as the court rulings have shown.

    -I am not sure, what you want to say. That we have more than one problem that need sorting surrounding the changes gay rights are bringing about? Therein you are certainly right. The Public Accommodation laws will need correcting.

  2. #122
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Inter-racial marriage didn't change the definition of marriage so not sure if that is a valid comparison either. Apparently, the court is wary of changing the definition of marriage as it's been understood for thousands of years....

    '...Justice Anthony Kennedy said that marriage has been understood as the union of one man and one woman for "millennia-plus time," according to an Associated Press reporter in the courtroom. "It's very difficult for the court to say 'We know better,'" Kennedy said during gay rights lawyer Mary Bonauto's presentation of arguments...."
    Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy says definition of marriage has stood for 'millennia' | MLive.com

    Inter-racial marriage didn't change that definition of marriage, but SSM would definitely would, don't you agree? It was also a younger generation that was more accepting of abortion and got Roe v Wade passed. But as you know, public opinion has recently changed on that, too.
    Interracial marriage being legal changed a "definition of marriage" in the same way same sex marriage does, whether it matched your definition doesn't matter. Both removed a restriction on marriage itself. In reality, it didn't change marriage at all. It simply allows more people to enter into marriage.

    And no, the younger generation was not more accepting of Roe v Wade in nearly the same way that we see with same sex marriage. There is no age divide when it comes to abortion opposition like we see in marriage opposition/support. The graphs for them look nothing alike.

    Abortion | Gallup Historical Trends

    One of these things is not like the other two.

    Crystal Ball Time:  SCOTUS and SSM-interracialmarriagesupport-gifCrystal Ball Time:  SCOTUS and SSM-rvw-jpgCrystal Ball Time:  SCOTUS and SSM-ssmsupport-jpg

    Despite denial of this fact, the similarities between interracial marriage support/opposition and same sex marriage support/opposition from these graphs are obvious. There is no similarity between the graph on same sex marriage and abortion.

    The only significant difference when it comes to abortion can be seen when you look at those with no religion, then you end up with a large percentage being pro-choice, which is the only thing similar to same sex marriage. However, the numbers are still different there too. And again, the difference in generational support/opposition for legal abortion is small, unlike same sex marriage where it is huge.

    And I think Justice Kennedy actually can see that this really isn't true. There have been many places in that millenia plus time that have had a different view on marriage, including it being one man and multiple women, even here in the US. That is discussing a restriction on marriage, not what marriage really is defined as.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  3. #123
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    It's been suggested that Prop 8 (the bill to ban SSM) wouldn't have passed if it weren't for the black evangelical vote....

    "....According to exit polls, 70 percent of African-Americans said they voted yes on Proposition 8, which passed with 52 percent of the vote.

    The new poll's sample size of black voters was too small to draw many conclusions, but this much seems clear: Proposition 8 received a total of 6.8 million votes, according to the California secretary of state's final tally, and, at most, about [B]900,000 of those votes came from African-Americans. If black voters had voted the same way as whites—50 percent for same-sex marriage and 50 percent opposed—the net gain for same-sex marriage supporters would have been slightly more than 500,000 votes. Prop 8 passed by a margin of just under 600,000 votes....."

    The article said 70% of blacks voted for Prop 8....that's would be about 600,000. Prop 8 passed by a margin just under 600,000.

    Guess Who's Coming to Dinner? It's was the black parents that were against inter-racial marriage...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6QiEqWcYrA


    Anyway, the point is, blacks are lot more conservative in their beliefs than a lot of people give them credit for. So maybe we're on the same page here....somehow.
    It doesn't matter which groups don't approve of same sex marriage. That is irrelevant. They are people too.

    And there are black people who do not/did not approve of interracial marriages as well.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  4. #124
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    But I don't think the court wants to redefine "marriage", either ...but it is something they might eventually have to do. Anyway, I haven't listened to the whole audio tape yet but I have heard Kennedy speak more favorably about gay marriage as well.
    Legally, there is no "redefining" marriage when you simply allow more people, those people of the same sex to enter into marriage. You are just removing a restriction. That is all. Marriage stays the same. People still enter into it for a variety of reasons, the most common being love. People still get all the same rights, privileges, benefits, and even responsibilities as when it is was restricted to just opposite sex couples. People still can get out of it the same way.

    So then the question should be, what exactly does functionally change by allowing same sex couples to enter into marriages? What difference does it truly make when it comes to marriage?
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  5. #125
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    I highly doubt the issue will die out if left to the states....especially now that it's already legal in 36 states.
    It reduces the pressure sharply on both sides. It takes the threat of top-down imposition on the traditional marriage side, while still allowing same-sex couples to get married. Neither side then poses a major threat to the other. Liberal states can issue marriage licenses to gays, conservative states don't have to, gay couples in conservative states who want a license can make a weekend road trip to get it and their home state has to recognize it.

    Will it go away? No. But it will be reduced as an issue.

    As long as there is religious belief against it, it's never going to go away. The chart below shows how often public opinion can change.....



    Abortion in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    This would be an excellent example of what I'm talking about - partially because the Court imposed a top-down one-size-fits-not-quite-anyone solution (and the poll question is somewhat misleading), abortion has remained an incredibly divisive and corrosive issue. Had they left it to the States, it would be much less so, because it would be a local/state issue, rather than one in which both sides seek to use the national government to force their beliefs on the other.

    After the Civil Rights bill passed a lot of people thought racism would end, too.
    And by and large, it has. Oh sure, there is still plenty out there to find if you go looking (the most racist demographic I've run across - and this surprised me - is actually black women), but by and large America is one of the least racist countries on the planet.
    “In America we have a two-party system,” a Republican congressional staffer told a visiting group of Russian legislators. “There is the stupid party. And there is the evil party. I am proud to be a member of the stupid party. Periodically, the two parties get together and do something that is both stupid and evil. This is called: bipartisanship."

  6. #126
    warrior of the wetlands
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Which still kinda does not answer the question of what they will do. You are just saying that Roberts and Kennedy are a third faction if I understand.
    I don't know what they will do. Roberts opinion in the AHCA was nothing anyone predicted. Kennedy is a catholic from California-that's an interesting mix for a vote on gay rights
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    why would any sane person want to repeal the second (Amendment).
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    Why would any sane person not want to?

  7. #127
    Outer space potato man

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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    I don't know what they will do. Roberts opinion in the AHCA was nothing anyone predicted. Kennedy is a catholic from California-that's an interesting mix for a vote on gay rights
    He's also a Supreme Court justice and will make the proper and obvious constitutional decision.
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    Well, certainly the customer is not an N-word.
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  8. #128
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    Legally, there is no "redefining" marriage when you simply allow more people, those people of the same sex to enter into marriage. You are just removing a restriction. That is all. Marriage stays the same. People still enter into it for a variety of reasons, the most common being love. People still get all the same rights, privileges, benefits, and even responsibilities as when it is was restricted to just opposite sex couples. People still can get out of it the same way.

    So then the question should be, what exactly does functionally change by allowing same sex couples to enter into marriages?
    What difference does it truly make when it comes to marriage?


    It gives everyone in the USA the same rights.




    "Tolerance is giving to every other human being every right that you claim for yourself."
    ~ Robert Green Ingersoll

  9. #129
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    Interracial marriage opposition hasn't gone away either, but is so irrelevant that no one considers it worthy of anything more than scoffing at when someone who is against such things rears their head. There are so few people who legitimately oppose interracial marriages, especially their being legal, that it actually has become a nonissue, despite the rare occasion when someone does something to try to prevent an interracial marriage from happening in some way or from someone having to participate in such an event.
    Not only that, there is generally a social stigma against being publicly racist. (Not everywhere but mostly)

    That is what time and progress brings...fortunately. And it will happen for the LGBT community as well.

    How much do you want to bet that there are bakeries and venues that will not do weddings for interracial couples? But they just dont speak out that that is why the service was denied.
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  10. #130
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Napoleon View Post
    I wish Bonauto would have challenged them more on that line of questioning. It is one thing to simply make the point to express the gravity of the question before the Court, but it is something else to go on about it for an extended period of time. The way it has been understood for thousands of years is irrelevant. That isn't a legal/constitutional argument nor should our Constitution be interpreted through the lens of the values of Ancient Greece.
    Exactly. Women had few to no rights and were considered property for thousands of years too.
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Jerkoffness is protected by The Constitution. That's what makes America great.
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