View Poll Results: How will SCOTUS rule?

Voters
60. You may not vote on this poll
  • States can ban SSM and not recognize them from other states

    2 3.33%
  • States can ban SSM but have to recognize them from other states

    8 13.33%
  • States cannot ban SSM but do not have to recognize them from other states

    1 1.67%
  • States cannot ban SSM and have to recognize them from other states

    45 75.00%
  • No ruling, lack of standing

    1 1.67%
  • Something else

    3 5.00%
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Thread: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

  1. #111
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Don't kid yourself...everyone thought the Birchers were a thing of the past, too. But now they're baaaaack....and lots of people are taking them seriously. Nah, the issue of SSM will never go away anymore than religion will....and I don't see that happening in any of our lifetimes. But then there's a lot I thought I'd never see that has come to be. Like, I never thought I'd see gay rights achieve so much so fast...but here we are. So....we'll see.
    Interracial marriage opposition hasn't gone away either, but is so irrelevant that no one considers it worthy of anything more than scoffing at when someone who is against such things rears their head. There are so few people who legitimately oppose interracial marriages, especially their being legal, that it actually has become a nonissue, despite the rare occasion when someone does something to try to prevent an interracial marriage from happening in some way or from someone having to participate in such an event.

    Like this one:

    Interracial Couple Denied Marriage License By Louisiana Justice Of The Peace

    And yes this same sort of thing did happen 45 years ago after the Loving decision was made.

    https://www.aclu.org/news/nc-interra...t-against-sb-2

    "Thomas and Carol Ann, who are both legally blind, met in Raleigh and moved to Winston-Salem to work for the Industries for the Blind in the 1970s. Thomas proposed to Carol Ann in 1976, and the two eventually went to their local courthouse to receive a civil marriage ceremony. Instead, they were turned away by two magistrates who said their religious beliefs prohibited them from marrying a black man and a white woman. In 1977, a federal court ordered a magistrate to perform their marriage, and the two magistrates who originally refused were ordered to pay legal fees. The couple now lives in Robbins, North Carolina."
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  2. #112
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    Interracial marriage opposition hasn't gone away either, but is so irrelevant that no one considers it worthy of anything more than scoffing at when someone who is against such things rears their head. There are so few people who legitimately oppose interracial marriages, especially their being legal, that it actually has become a nonissue, despite the rare occasion when someone does something to try to prevent an interracial marriage from happening in some way or from someone having to participate in such an event.

    Like this one:

    Interracial Couple Denied Marriage License By Louisiana Justice Of The Peace

    And yes this same sort of thing did happen 45 years ago after the Loving decision was made.

    https://www.aclu.org/news/nc-interra...t-against-sb-2

    "Thomas and Carol Ann, who are both legally blind, met in Raleigh and moved to Winston-Salem to work for the Industries for the Blind in the 1970s. Thomas proposed to Carol Ann in 1976, and the two eventually went to their local courthouse to receive a civil marriage ceremony. Instead, they were turned away by two magistrates who said their religious beliefs prohibited them from marrying a black man and a white woman. In 1977, a federal court ordered a magistrate to perform their marriage, and the two magistrates who originally refused were ordered to pay legal fees. The couple now lives in Robbins, North Carolina."
    Lol, I forgot about that!
    "I'm not a racist. I just don't believe in mixing the races that way," Bardwell told the Associated Press on Thursday. "I have piles and piles of black friends. They come to my home, I marry them, they use my bathroom. I treat them just like everyone else."
    I, myself, have piles and piles of female friends. I just don't think they should be allowed to vote. I'm not sexist at all.

  3. #113
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    Lol, I forgot about that!

    I, myself, have piles and piles of female friends. I just don't think they should be allowed to vote. I'm not sexist at all.
    Honestly, I can see this as really being a deeply held belief because I have personally known quite a number of people who felt this was about mixing the races, some of whom were actually black. Now, I've also known some who actually were racist assholes too. The girl in bootcamp I knew who was against interracial relationships actually developed pretty good friendships with the black girls in bootcamp but had issues with me because I was in an interracial relationship. I still view such beliefs, even if not based in actual racism, as ignorant and backward.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  4. #114
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    So many try to point to Roe v Wade, when it is obvious that same sex marriage support/opposition graphs match interracial marriage acceptance/opposition graphs, not abortion graphs. It is dishonest to pretend that this issue is anything like abortion. It is like interracial marriage. The proof of this is in the group statistics that support/oppose same sex marriage compared to abortion. The groups, young and old, are pretty evenly split when it comes to opposition of abortion, and have been for quite some time (since about the decision was made or before. Support and opposition for same sex marriage is very much obviously more opposed by older generations than younger generations, just as interracial marriage was/is.

    So, although it is unlikely that opposition to same sex marriage will ever completely go away, it will get to such a low point that it won't matter and the rare cases where the next generation sees it, it will be treated very much the same way as we treat opposition to interracial marriages now.
    Inter-racial marriage didn't change the definition of marriage so not sure if that is a valid comparison either. Apparently, the court is wary of changing the definition of marriage as it's been understood for thousands of years....

    '...Justice Anthony Kennedy said that marriage has been understood as the union of one man and one woman for "millennia-plus time," according to an Associated Press reporter in the courtroom. "It's very difficult for the court to say 'We know better,'" Kennedy said during gay rights lawyer Mary Bonauto's presentation of arguments...."
    Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy says definition of marriage has stood for 'millennia' | MLive.com

    Inter-racial marriage didn't change that definition of marriage, but SSM would definitely would, don't you agree? It was also a younger generation that was more accepting of abortion and got Roe v Wade passed. But as you know, public opinion has recently changed on that, too.

  5. #115
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    Lol, I forgot about that!

    I, myself, have piles and piles of female friends. I just don't think they should be allowed to vote. I'm not sexist at all.
    You'd be a masochist if you said that in a room full of women. lol

  6. #116
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    Inter-racial marriage didn't change the definition of marriage so not sure if that is a valid comparison either. Apparently, the court is wary of changing the definition of marriage as it's been understood for thousands of years....

    '...Justice Anthony Kennedy said that marriage has been understood as the union of one man and one woman for "millennia-plus time," according to an Associated Press reporter in the courtroom. "It's very difficult for the court to say 'We know better,'" Kennedy said during gay rights lawyer Mary Bonauto's presentation of arguments...."
    Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy says definition of marriage has stood for 'millennia' | MLive.com

    Inter-racial marriage didn't change that definition of marriage, but SSM would definitely would, don't you agree? It was also a younger generation that was more accepting of abortion and got Roe v Wade passed. But as you know, public opinion has recently changed on that, too.
    I wish Bonauto would have challenged them more on that line of questioning. It is one thing to simply make the point to express the gravity of the question before the Court, but it is something else to go on about it for an extended period of time. The way it has been understood for thousands of years is irrelevant. That isn't a legal/constitutional argument nor should our Constitution be interpreted through the lens of the values of Ancient Greece.

  7. #117
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    Honestly, I can see this as really being a deeply held belief because I have personally known quite a number of people who felt this was about mixing the races, some of whom were actually black. Now, I've also known some who actually were racist assholes too. The girl in bootcamp I knew who was against interracial relationships actually developed pretty good friendships with the black girls in bootcamp but had issues with me because I was in an interracial relationship. I still view such beliefs, even if not based in actual racism, as ignorant and backward.
    It's been suggested that Prop 8 (the bill to ban SSM) wouldn't have passed if it weren't for the black evangelical vote....

    "....According to exit polls, 70 percent of African-Americans said they voted yes on Proposition 8, which passed with 52 percent of the vote.

    The new poll's sample size of black voters was too small to draw many conclusions, but this much seems clear: Proposition 8 received a total of 6.8 million votes, according to the California secretary of state's final tally, and, at most, about [B]900,000 of those votes came from African-Americans. If black voters had voted the same way as whites—50 percent for same-sex marriage and 50 percent opposed—the net gain for same-sex marriage supporters would have been slightly more than 500,000 votes. Prop 8 passed by a margin of just under 600,000 votes....."

    The article said 70% of blacks voted for Prop 8....that's would be about 600,000. Prop 8 passed by a margin just under 600,000.

    Guess Who's Coming to Dinner? It's was the black parents that were against inter-racial marriage...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6QiEqWcYrA


    Anyway, the point is, blacks are lot more conservative in their beliefs than a lot of people give them credit for. So maybe we're on the same page here....somehow.

  8. #118
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Napoleon View Post
    I wish Bonauto would have challenged them more on that line of questioning. It is one thing to simply make the point to express the gravity of the question before the Court, but it is something else to go on about it for an extended period of time. The way it has been understood for thousands of years is irrelevant. That isn't a legal/constitutional argument nor should our Constitution be interpreted through the lens of the values of Ancient Greece.

    But I don't think the court wants to redefine "marriage", either ...but it is something they might eventually have to do. Anyway, I haven't listened to the whole audio tape yet but I have heard Kennedy speak more favorably about gay marriage as well.

  9. #119
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    But I don't think the court wants to redefine "marriage", either ...but it is something they might eventually have to do. Anyway, I haven't listened to the whole audio tape yet but I have heard Kennedy speak more favorably about gay marriage as well.
    Kennedy was hung up on that, but my impression is that he was only reflecting on the gravity of the decision they're being asked to make. As opposed to Scalia, who really thinks it should be a deciding factor. Listening to the audio is worth it especially for Question II. Douglas Hallward-Driemeier's argument was masterful.

  10. #120
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    Re: Crystal Ball Time: SCOTUS and SSM

    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    I should explain more

    the liberal bloc are a given-Kagan, Breyer, Sotamayor and RBG are going to vote for gay marriage on all fronts

    we have seen that CJ Roberts wants to be seen as both clever and a wise King Solomon (remember Obama care-he didn't buy the commerce clause nonsense of the left but he split the baby with the tax argument even though the Obama advocates denied it was a tax)

    so he will do something like that here

    Thomas, Alito and Scalia will probably continue to say its a states rights issue-to the point that a state doesn't have to recognize gay marriage from another state

    Kennedy is another question mark
    Which still kinda does not answer the question of what they will do. You are just saying that Roberts and Kennedy are a third faction if I understand.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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