View Poll Results: Where does Hillary end the 2016 campaign?

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  • Hillary will drop out of the race alltogether

    5 14.29%
  • Hillary will lose the Primaries

    9 25.71%
  • Hillary will lose the General

    6 17.14%
  • Hillary will be the next POTUS

    15 42.86%
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Thread: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

  1. #1
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    Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


    I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.



    So - post your predictions Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't
    “In America we have a two-party system,” a Republican congressional staffer told a visiting group of Russian legislators. “There is the stupid party. And there is the evil party. I am proud to be a member of the stupid party. Periodically, the two parties get together and do something that is both stupid and evil. This is called: bipartisanship."

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


    I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.



    So - post your predictions Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't
    Still very early days of course, but my bet would be that she will tough it out and use her massive amounts of campaign money to wage unrelenting warfare against any opponents within the Democratic Party. And she has two things going for her.
    1. People have gotten used to the corruption and money-hunger surrounding the Clintons. It will take more than a scandal to derail her.
    2. Who is the alternative for the Democrats? Bernie Sanders? (way outside the American mainstream) Joe Biden ? (who takes him seriously) Elizabeth Warren? (A populist firebrand and somebody who can energize one wing of the party, but frankly unelectable at a national level) O'Malley? (doesn't look impressive) ...

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    I'm honestly not sure. I voted "will lose the Primaries" but under the assumption that eventually someone may convince Warren to run.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Quote Originally Posted by OrphanSlug View Post
    I'm honestly not sure. I voted "will lose the Primaries" but under the assumption that eventually someone may convince Warren to run.
    Should Warren run I agree she might pose a threat to Clinton within the Democratic Party. But if Warren were to be the nominee her chances of winning the actual election would be zero.

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    It's too early too say.

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


    I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.

    So - post your predictions Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't
    If the Democrats want to win, they will certainly need to nominate someone like.... gee, I can't think of one that I would want to vote for. But the woman is really not voteable with the murky track record she and her Hubby produced. Even he should not have been elected after the Governorship scandals. But she has gone on collecting more baggage and does not have the glib Teflon grin nor any charisma.

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Quote Originally Posted by joG View Post
    If the Democrats want to win, they will certainly need to nominate someone like.... gee, I can't think of one that I would want to vote for. But the woman is really not voteable with the murky track record she and her Hubby produced. Even he should not have been elected after the Governorship scandals. But she has gone on collecting more baggage and does not have the glib Teflon grin nor any charisma.
    Mornin Jog. What about Webb?

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Mornin Jog. What about Webb?
    He is certainly low profile.

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeoVlaming View Post
    Should Warren run I agree she might pose a threat to Clinton within the Democratic Party. But if Warren were to be the nominee her chances of winning the actual election would be zero.
    Perhaps so, depends on whom Republicans ultimately put up. The Independent vote is as much in play for Republicans as it is for Democrats.
    "Every time something really bad happens, people cry out for safety, and the government answers by taking rights away from good people." - Penn Jillette.

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    Re: Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

    Hillary will be defeated in the general election. There is no way that she doesn't win the Democrat nomination this time around. Democrats are blind zealots who couldn't care less about the character and integrity of their standard bearer. Their big tent is open to any crook with a checkbook and Hillary and Bill are the epitome of Democrat politics.

    Thankfully, independents and conservatives will see that she and Bill never set foot in the White House again. Once you take out the trash, you don't invite it back in.
    A Canadian conservative is one who believes in limited government and that the government should stay out of our wallets and out of our bedrooms.

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