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Prediction Time - Will Hillary Survive the Scandals?

Where does Hillary end the 2016 campaign?

  • Total voters
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ReverendHellh0und said:
Trump may be that "mickey mouse".... The American people are saying "if you want to run this country like clowns, we will elect one!"

Though honestly, how can he do worse? lol
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The YOLO election. :doh Awesome
 
Simple reasons she will become the next President.

First of all there is no real opposition to her in the Democratic primaries. Sure if Biden entered but he has his own issues.

Secondly the republican opposition is so poor.

Finally, this email scandal is mostly partisan bull****. It is a vain attempt of payback not only against the Clintons, but of course the Democrats for their attacks on Bush and his cronies having 22 million emails "poof" and run on private servers. Funny how people have forgotten all about that.
 
Ask me 4 weeks ago and I'd say no.

I'm still not sure I'd say yes, but I'm truly beginning to wonder if Sanders may capitalize on this. His popularity growth reminded me a lot of Ron Paul in 2008. The difference, however, was there were numerous "viable" candidates seemingly running in 2008, without a far and away front runner right off, and where once a front runner formed there wasn't overwhelming distaste.

Right now it's Hillary, Bernie, and seemingly no one else. Bernie doesn't even need to necessarily convince people to vote for him, he just needs to be the only person seen as viable enough to beat Clinton for all of those voters that just don't want Clinton. Essentially, Sanders could be a Rock...but if that Rock is the only other person polling over 20% in a competition with Hillary, the rock was going to get votes.

The only person I see throwing a hiccup in this right now is Biden once/if he fully jumps into the race, as he has the national recognition while also having a more palatable gen election aura about him than Sanders.

I still think ultimately it's Clinton, but it's not the sure thing it seemed to be a short while ago.
 
cpwill said:
It suddenly gives me the thought: what if there is a national campaign to turn the whole thing into a joke that gets out of hand... and we really do end up electing Mickey Mouse (or some other write-in candidate) as President?
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You mean like electing DEEZ NUTS!
 
PeteEU said:
Simple reasons she will become the next President.

First of all there is no real opposition to her in the Democratic primaries. Sure if Biden entered but he has his own issues.

Secondly the republican opposition is so poor.
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I think you are thinking "they would not do well in a European election", rather than how they would do in an American election, which is the relevant measure.

Clinton trailing Republicans in every swing state tested


Finally, this email scandal is mostly partisan bull****. It is a vain attempt of payback not only against the Clintons, but of course the Democrats for their attacks on Bush and his cronies having 22 million emails "poof" and run on private servers. Funny how people have forgotten all about that.
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The email scandal is partisan BS.... with investigations being led by a Democrat Administration, and being circulated in the left-leaning press?

:roll: She broke the law. She broke very serious laws, designed to protect national security. It's about as partisan as the charges against General Petraeus.
 
I suspect that what will happen is that Biden gets in the race, draws Dem establishment support from Clinton, the scandals persist, more steam goes out of her campaign, maybe Sanders and Biden do better in the first few primaries - and she just says chuck it farley and departs leaving the stage to others. I really do not see the proverbial fire in the belly that a candidate needs for her to succeed put up with all this crap. And the buzz and energy for her is a pale ghost of what it was eight years ago.

Her time has passed.
 
cpwill said:
I think you are thinking "they would not do well in a European election", rather than how they would do in an American election, which is the relevant measure.

Clinton trailing Republicans in every swing state tested
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And there was another poll yesterday that stated the opposite.. in fact most do.

Plus we are a year out. It does not however change the fact that most if not all the GOP candidates that have a chance in hell of winning the nomination, are poor candidates.

The email scandal is partisan BS.... with investigations being led by a Democrat Administration, and being circulated in the left-leaning press?

:roll: She broke the law. She broke very serious laws, designed to protect national security. It's about as partisan as the charges against General Petraeus.
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So did most of the Bush White House on the issue.. Hence this is partisan as hell.
 
PeteEU said:
And there was another poll yesterday that stated the opposite.. in fact most do.
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Most that I've seen split both ways depending on which GOP candidate she is put up against. Walker and Rubio beat her, while Jeb doesn't, for example. But the polling is fairly close in all areas, the idea that the Republicans are "so poor they can't win" is, at this point, a mathematically untenable position.

Plus we are a year out.
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Yup. Another year of drip-drip-drip as more and more of this continues to come out, and her favorability figures continuing to drop.

If Hillary had a compelling message, she'd have something to replace this narrative about her with. But her message basically boils down to "it's my turn". So, she's got.... :shrug:

It does not however change the fact that most if not all the GOP candidates that have a chance in hell of winning the nomination, are poor candidates.
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Walker is an uninspiring candidate, but faced off against Hillary, who is not only an uninspiring candidate, but a depressing candidate, that remains a relative advantage.

Marco Rubio probably has the greatest raw political talent on either side of the aisle at this point - he is a fantastic candidate. The question is would he be an equally effective President.

Jeb is a moderate uninspiring-to-semi-good candidate, with a large, large, large, disadvantage due his last name, making him a net poor candidate.


So did most of the Bush White House on the issue.. Hence this is partisan as hell.
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How much classified information did members of the Bush White House store in private servers that were hacked by the Chinese and Russians?
 
haymarket said:
I suspect that what will happen is that Biden gets in the race, draws Dem establishment support from Clinton, the scandals persist, more steam goes out of her campaign, maybe Sanders and Biden do better in the first few primaries - and she just says chuck it farley and departs leaving the stage to others. I really do not see the proverbial fire in the belly that a candidate needs for her to succeed put up with all this crap. And the buzz and energy for her is a pale ghost of what it was eight years ago.

Her time has passed.
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What if Biden doesn't get in, or gets in too late to build much structure?
 
cpwill said:
What if Biden doesn't get in, or gets in too late to build much structure?
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If Biden does not get in I suspect Clinton will not be stopped within the party and will win . The only caveat there would be if the scandals really blow up and it becomes criminal. Then she would have to bow out and we are back to Biden.
 
haymarket said:
If Biden does not get in I suspect Clinton will not be stopped within the party and will win . The only caveat there would be if the scandals really blow up and it becomes criminal. Then she would have to bow out and we are back to Biden.
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You think if the inspections become criminal, Biden comes in as the "savior figure" promising the One-Term?
 
cpwill said:
You think if the inspections become criminal, Biden comes in as the "savior figure" promising the One-Term?
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I have no idea what he would promise and if it would have any real impact regardless if he did it or not. I simply think there is no other alternative besides Biden.

The Dems figured Clinton was a sure deal but her support even in the party is the proverbial a mile wide and one inch deep. And the Republicans and their constant attacks on her are starting achieve the death of a thousand cuts - at least the first few hundred. Combine that with the reception Sanders is getting and it just does not look good for Clinton. That is fine with me as I never liked her to begin with. But it leaves the party in a mess and Biden needs to step in fast and supply the viable alternative.

Sanders just cannot win in November barring a three or four way race where the GOP constituency is divided and I really do not see that happening as a likely scenario. The best Sanders could get would be mid 40's and that is not enough in a two person race.
 
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haymarket said:
I have no idea what he would promise and if it would have any real impact regardless if he did it or not. I simply think there is no other alternative besides Biden.

The Dems figured Clinton was a sure deal but her support even in the party is the proverbial a mile wide and one inch deep. And the Republicans and their constant attacks on her are starting achieve the death of a thousand cuts - at least the first few hundred. Combine that with the reception Sanders is getting and it just does not look good for Clinton. That is fine with me as I never liked her to begin with. But it leaves the party in a mess and Biden needs to step in fast and supply the viable alternative.

Sanders just cannot win in November barring a three or four way race where the GOP constituency is divided and I really do not see that happening as a likely scenario. The best Sanders could get would be mid 40's and that is not enough in a two person race.
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I hope her hubris keeps her unable to drop out until she loses the primaries.

But even if she does not, she's gonna loose.

I hope the dems continue to have difficulties with her.
 
haymarket said:
I have no idea what he would promise and if it would have any real impact regardless if he did it or not. I simply think there is no other alternative besides Biden.

The Dems figured Clinton was a sure deal but her support even in the party is the proverbial a mile wide and one inch deep. And the Republicans and their constant attacks on her are starting achieve the death of a thousand cuts - at least the first few hundred. Combine that with the reception Sanders is getting and it just does not look good for Clinton. That is fine with me as I never liked her to begin with. But it leaves the party in a mess and Biden needs to step in fast and supply the viable alternative.
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I've thought the bolded for some time.

But as for the red - really? The New York Times, MSNBC, and the FBI are "Republicans"? Hillary's wounds come from others, but are ultimately self-inflicted.

Sanders just cannot win in November barring a three or four way race where the GOP constituency is divided and I really do not see that happening as a likely scenario. The best Sanders could get would be mid 40's and that is not enough in a two person race.
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I am not positive Sanders could even pull it off in a three way race. Man. Trump v Jeb v Sanders? The cards would completely be up in the air on that one.
 
cpwill said:
I've thought the bolded for some time.

But as for the red - really? The New York Times, MSNBC, and the FBI are "Republicans"? Hillary's wounds come from others, but are ultimately self-inflicted.



I am not positive Sanders could even pull it off in a three way race. Man. Trump v Jeb v Sanders? The cards would completely be up in the air on that one.
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Please do not get me wrong - I agree that lots of this damage is self inflicted. I also believe 100% that there are those in the GOP who made a decision a year ago to help destroy her bit by bit by bit over time since it was believed she had the best chance of winning in November. Lets face it - the country really did NOT give a crap about all this Benghazi carping that seemed to possess and obsess so many on the right. But they kept beating that drum month after month in the hopes it would hurt Clinton.

So yes - she has hurt herself - and yes, there are those in the GOP who poured gasoline on that fire.

As far as a three way race with Bush vs. Trump vs.Sanders - I think Bernie could have the edge there in terms of getting the most popular vote - but the electoral vote would be a total toss up and mystery between he and Bush. I would not wager a dime on that speculation.
 
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I think Biden would have a good shot in the general.

I think Bernie Sanders would be the closest thing to Goldwater we'd have had in the modern era (IE, he wouldn't lose as bad as Goldwater because as the natural polarization of states have made certain areas unquestionable Red or Blue states for the forseeable future regardless of who's on the ticket, but relative to the past 20 odd years of presidential elections it'd be huge).

It's much the same as I felt if Ron Paul would've somehow secured the Republican nomination in 2008. I think his popularity and appeal is misrepresented to people like us because it's oversampled amongst the political junky and/or social networking crowd that frankly make up a minority of the people in this country imho.
 
It's hard to say. She's a Clinton, those guys are covered in so much slime that all sorts of **** just slides right off them.
 
cpwill said:
So - post your predictions :) Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't :D
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Not it will not effect her campaign.

1.Most voters have the attention span of a gnat so any outrage they have now will be gone by the time the elections come around.

2.Seeing how the media in general is liberally biased most voters won't be aware of her wrong doings. And if the media does air her wrong doings it will simply be played off as a republican witch hunt or simply not that big of a deal despite people going to to prison less.

3.Those who do know won't care. Because like die hard republican party-tards, the die hard democrat party-tards will vote for the democrat front runner regardless of how ****ty, morally bankrupt and ideologically opposite that candidate is from them just as long as that candidate is part of their party.
 
cpwill said:
My gut instinct is, No. News Stories that do the most damage are ones which confirm what the public already suspects about a candidate. Romney's "47%" remark was damaging not because it was necessarily untrue, but because it reinforced the narrative that he was an out-of-touch plutocrat that really didn't care about half the country. In the modern Presidential campaign, Define Your Opposition is one of the leading requirements, and few people are so easily Defined as Hillary. The loss of friendly media (NYTimes, WaPo, even MSNBC) is a brutal kick, as it makes it impossible to dismiss current stories involving influence-peddling as Right Wing Conspiracy nonsense. Voters rarely enough return a party to the White House for a third time, and Hillary's current (and future - and there will be future) problems involving the nexus of power and money will make that hurdle significantly higher. It would take a major meltdown on the Republican campaign for her to push past defending herself, successfully define and attack the opposition, and then present herself as the better option.


I also don't think she wins the primary. Democrats are willing to back Hillary as The Only Candidate, but I don't think they are as willing to back her as One Of Multiple Possible Candidates. It's not in the Democrat Party's instinct to run the Tired Old Worker Whose Turn It Is - that's a Republican Party tendency. The Democrat Party likes New and Fresh - Republicans spend their time looking for the next Reagan, Democrats for the next Kennedy. So, I think, the scandals give cover to Democrats who wish to jump ship from the Inevitable Hillary Train. O'Malley is still down in the polls, about where President Obama was at this point in the 2008 cycle - but he offers Democrats something to jump to that offers some level of experience, but also avoids the baggage of a Hillary campaign. For liberals, who prefer to think of themselves as sort of enlightened rebels (conservatives prefer to think of themselves as a sort of silent moral majority), jumping off the Hillary train will be an uplifting, freeing experience. Expect more stories like this and polls like this.



So - post your predictions :) Let's see who has political instinct here and who doesn't :D
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The past due date for Hillary has passed by the Dems. No one can really start at such a late date. They are literately stuck with her.
 
cpwill said:
You think if the inspections become criminal, Biden comes in as the "savior figure" promising the One-Term?
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I'd put Warren in a much better position than Biden to do this.
 
Hatuey said:
I'd put Warren in a much better position than Biden to do this.
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Warren isn't in a good position either.

I welcome the democrats realization that they didn't cultivate a competitive candidate pool, that will happen after the Republican candidate wins.
 
Hatuey said:
I'd put Warren in a much better position than Biden to do this.
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Well I don't know - Warren seems intent on staying out. Biden comes with the personal backing of the President, and basically incumbent advantage.
 
US Conservative said:
Warren isn't in a good position either.

I welcome the democrats realization that they didn't cultivate a competitive candidate pool, that will happen after the Republican candidate wins.
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Well, a lot of them found it easier to focus on their continued Executive Victories in the White House to notice the political massacres wiping out their benches below it.
 
cpwill said:
Well, a lot of them found it easier to focus on their continued Executive Victories in the White House to notice the political massacres wiping out their benches below it.
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Its denial. The same denial seen around here the night of the last mid-terms.

Its going to hit them hard.
 
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