View Poll Results: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

Voters
211. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes

    13 6.16%
  • No

    198 93.84%
Page 9 of 14 FirstFirst ... 7891011 ... LastLast
Results 81 to 90 of 137

Thread: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

  1. #81
    Sage
    Sherman123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Northeast US
    Last Seen
    11-23-17 @ 11:12 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    7,774

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    I thought it would be interesting to take a stab at calculating how many nukes you would need to totally destroy Iran. I looked it up and Iran is approximately 640000 square miles in area. That is equivalent to a square that has 800x800 as its dimensions. Let's assume that with a powerful nuke you could totally destroy an area with an eight mile radius. That means you would need 100 x 100 or 10000 powerful nukes to completely destroy Iran. I don't think we currently have that many, but I suppose we could make them.
    Why would anyone do this? Furthermore 'totally destroy' a country with nuclear weapons doesn't usually refer to atomizing every square inch of territory.

  2. #82
    Professor
    SBu's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Washington State
    Last Seen
    01-18-16 @ 03:52 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    1,523

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    It appears that some feel that Iran's nuclear program can be stopped by military force alone. But this is a flawed notion because it requires that such force be applied for an infinite amount of time. It will not work.
    It can be stopped by force, but it would require an invasion to secure the sites and topple the regime. I don't buy the infinite amount of time thing, there is a known opposition against the current regime and Iran is more politically sophisticated than Iraq was with fewer internal divisions.

    The whole point of the negotiations now are to avert this, however. It seems to me that it's worth the effort, so long as we don't sell the farm to get a bum deal. I don't like that the negotiations thus far have succeeded only in giving Iran more time to develop etc. The negotiations have missed nearly ever deadline.

  3. #83
    Sage
    Sherman123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Northeast US
    Last Seen
    11-23-17 @ 11:12 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    7,774

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Like I said, it appears you don't know a thing about the process of enriching uranium. Do you even realize something so basic as a nuclear reactor is not needed to enrich it? Basically the uranium is mined, crushed, milled and converted into yellow cake using various chemicals. The yellow cake is then converted uranium hexafluoride by chemical reactions using nitric acid, hydrofluoric acid, fluorine, etc. Once you have the uranium hexafluoride, it can be heated to form a gas. The U235, which is what you need for a fission bomb, can be separated from the U238. You don't need a nuclear reactor to do any of that. Since you like to use the phrase "in fact", IN FACT any freshman physics student knows about the cyclotron formula. Using that formula one could separate the U235 by putting the gaseous uranium hexafluoride into a magnetic field at a certain velocity. I said that because it could be done, even without centrifuges and certainly without a reactor. However one could simply run a small number centrifuges, and over many years have enough U235 for a bomb. Now what I just said is a fact. And even I, with the little knowledge of physics that I have know that. That is how common that knowledge is. Someone who is expert could do all that, undetected on a small scale.
    Which is an insanely ineffective way to yield the amount of uranium needed for a nuclear weapons program with a useful delivery schedule. We aren't overly concerned that Iran is going to build a calutron bomb program. It also isn't an 'invisible' program.

  4. #84
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Last Seen
    08-18-15 @ 09:36 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,974

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    What do you mean? The premise behind the 'force option' is that by launching an attack that is sufficiently effective you will destroy the bulk of the progress Iran has made with the destruction of years of effort, billions of dollars, and the like. In doing so you make the cost of reconstruction under the likely possibility of bombardment untenable or impossible. Furthermore once you destroy the nuclear infrastructure it isn't as though it just pops up again you have to start from the beginning and this puts you in an advantageous position if you've already committed to a military option of destroying nascent facilities instead of a well developed and dispersed program.
    A few points

    1. You assertion that the possibility of bombardment makes the cost of reconstruction untenable or impossible, is questionable. On the surface of it one can merely question your assessment of impossible. I doubt seriously that you could demonstrate the the mere possibility of bombardment would make it impossible. Now untenable, that is debatable as it is possible that it could be tenable.

    2. You have casually brushed aside that even if you destroy the infrastructure, it can be rebuilt if one knows how. And Iran knows how. You can't bomb knowledge.

    3. You do not account for the possibility that it is possible to carry on a program that was not detected by an attack.
    Last edited by MildSteel; 02-21-15 at 02:00 PM.

  5. #85
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Last Seen
    08-18-15 @ 09:36 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,974

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Why would anyone do this? Furthermore 'totally destroy' a country with nuclear weapons doesn't usually refer to atomizing every square inch of territory.
    It was more just a knee jerk reaction to the previous proposition that the U.S. COULD destroy everything in Iran. I had been thinking a little about physics and that conditioning led me to take a stab at doing such a simple estimation. You know, make some assumptions, collect some data, and present a conclusion. That type of thing.

    Your response bears witness to its effectiveness in illustrating the point that destroying everything in Iran is somewhat absurd.

    That is the point.

  6. #86
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Last Seen
    08-18-15 @ 09:36 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,974

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    Which is an insanely ineffective way to yield the amount of uranium needed for a nuclear weapons program with a useful delivery schedule. We aren't overly concerned that Iran is going to build a calutron bomb program. It also isn't an 'invisible' program.
    It is not ineffective when one considers what its goal is. The goal would be to make a nuclear weapon that would not be detected or destroyed by the type of attack you made reference to when you made the comment on destroying infrastructure. When considered in that light, doing it in a very small way, over many years makes it effective.

  7. #87
    Sage
    Sherman123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Northeast US
    Last Seen
    11-23-17 @ 11:12 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    7,774

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    A few points

    1. You have said that the possibility of bombardment makes the cost of reconstruction untenable or impossible is questionable. On the surface of it one can merely question your assessment of impossible. I doubt seriously that you could demonstrate the the mere possibility of bombardment would make it impossible. Now untenable, that is debatable as it is possible that it could be tenable.

    2. You have casually brushed aside that even if you destroy the infrastructure, it can be rebuilt if one knows how. And Iran knows how. You can't bomb knowledge.

    3. You do not account for the possibility that it is possible to carry on a program that was not detected by an attack.
    1. The assertion being made is relatively simple and could almost be taken as an axiom. If you have very expensive infrastructure that took years to put into place and it is destroyed it will be extremely expensive for you to put it back together. Especially with your economy in tatters, dwindling financial reserves, and the threat of renewed bombardment.

    2. Anything can be rebuilt. A dam can be rebuilt, but it is going to be an expensive and laborious process--just like it was the first time around. Except this time the economy is much more fragile and the risk of military attack is a near certainty unless it can be hidden. I'm doubtful Iran would be able to prioritize such a program under those circumstances anymore than Iraq was able to after the destruction of Osiraq.

    3. Always possible but extremely difficult. If this is the only plausible route Iran has after the destruction of its facilities I think such a coalition would sleep peacefully.

  8. #88
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Where I am now
    Last Seen
    09-11-17 @ 03:00 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    16,386

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by spangledbanner View Post
    I don't see why they can't have one. Israel has one. And Israel didn't ask anyone if they could make nukes. They just made them. And nobody knows how many they even have. Do they?

    Why can't Iran have nukes? What is the big deal? If BB was really worried about it would he want all Jews in Europe to move to Israel? I doubt it. Nobody cares about Iran getting nukes. North Korea has them. Why would Iran having them be worse than North Korea or Pakistan. Normal people do not care about this issue at all.
    I agree...great post.


    And the reasons people care are, IMO, basically three fold.

    1) Paranoia.

    2) Pro-Israeli lobby groups/extremists

    3) Neo cons trying to push the 'Iran is evil and must be destroyed' angle because Neo cons are always looking for new enemies to justify the massive Military Industrial Complex.

  9. #89
    Sage
    Sherman123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Northeast US
    Last Seen
    11-23-17 @ 11:12 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    7,774

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    It is not ineffective when one considers what its goal is. The goal would be to make a nuclear weapon that would not be detected or destroyed by the type of attack you made reference to when you made the comment on destroying infrastructure. When considered in that light, doing it in a very small way, over many years makes it effective.
    So they are going to plow through another decade or more of sifting Uranium through a calutron to yield a single bomb? The last time a country build a weapon this way it was during the Manhattan Project and we built gigantic facilities to make sure we were moving at an industrial scale. Tens of thousands of acres of land were appropriated for these instruments, an entire city's worth of infrastructure to provide for the program, and the Y-12 calutron program still took more than a year to produce 50kg of enriched uranium. Not to mention the years we spent building it and the billions we spent on it. I think we can both agree that Iran doesn't have the luxury of building a city scope nuclear program.

  10. #90
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Last Seen
    08-18-15 @ 09:36 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,974

    Re: Can Iran's nuclear program be stopped by military force alone?

    I also wanted to make it perfectly clear. I AM NOT AT ALL SUGGESTING THAT IRAN IS ACTUALLY DOING THIS. My point is that if Iran really wanted to build a nuclear weapon, it could do so despite military action.

Page 9 of 14 FirstFirst ... 7891011 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •