If you had the choice between ONLY two things, a multi-polar world in which the US shared power with other countries or a nuclear war, which would you prefer?
Not a stupid question at all. In fact, I was thinking of this today.
I believe nuclear war is inevitable. Much like mankind transitioned from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age, We are currently in an era of transition from the carbon age to a nuclear age.
The only thing holding man back is fear. Fear of the power that nuclear energy carries with it. Fear of nuclear war, meltdowns, etc. That fear manifests itself in to political policy - anti proliferation is a current global theme and one upon which is placed perhaps more weight than any other geopolitical issue.
However, what we must understand is that, as man transitioned from bronze to iron, so too is the transition to a nuclear world inevitable. Progress can never be stopped, if history teaches us anything.
In other words, nuclear power is a genie that cannot be put back in its bottle, in spite of our fears or political efforts.
Proliferation is inevitable. The only question is how long it can be delayed. The nations of the Middle East will go nuclear, as will the Asian nations. One day, every nation on earth will have access to nuclear technology.
The question is then, how do we learn to exist in such an environment??
I believe very strongly that we will have to settle our differences one way or the other. We could do this peacefully, but if history is any teacher for us, more likely our differences will be settled by war.
I believe what divides us more than anything else is ego, thirst for power, and religion. I believe a holy war is inevitable. Islam will clash with the rest of the world, and the question will ultimately need to be settled.
I think the upshot of such a conflict could go one of two ways. Either, in the ashes of such a war, we do find a new equilibrium and mankind learns to forge ahead in a new, nuclear world, or the war will cripple us to such an extent that we are sent back to the Stone Age.
Either way, I believe these things are coming. I believe a multipolar world in the nuclear age will prove impossible, and that ultimately, this is a game from which some unified ideology needs to emerge victorious.