Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes?

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Here is the most rational study I've ever seen on the issue. The methodology is to look at the records of politicians before they announce retirement and after they announce retirement. This is important because after a politician announces retirement, the donations stop flowing and the "influence of the money" evaporates.

So what do you think? Is there evidence that donations influence the way politicians vote?

http://www.campaignfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Bronars-1997-Money-And-Votes.pdf

cpwill · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

This is an excellent piece, thank you for posting it.

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
Here is the most rational study I've ever seen on the issue. The methodology is to look at the records of politicians before they announce retirement and after they announce retirement. This is important because after a politician announces retirement, the donations stop flowing and the "influence of the money" evaporates.

So what do you think? Is there evidence that donations influence the way politicians vote?

http://www.campaignfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Bronars-1997-Money-And-Votes.pdf

Depends on the politician doesn't it?

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

cpwill said:
This is an excellent piece, thank you for posting it.

You're welcome. It's the most empirical study I've seen on the matter.

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Redress said:
Depends on the politician doesn't it?

Does it? Read the study and see what they found.

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
Does it? Read the study and see what they found.

Study does not address individuals. You might want to read it yourself.

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Redress said:
Study does not address individuals. You might want to read it yourself.

No, it was discussing "politicians" just like you quoted. What's with the goal-post moving exercise here?

But since you want to go there, how do "individuals" sign up to get paid for their vote?

oncewas · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Just asked KY.Mitch McConnell,he know's better than most.He's made a living doing it.:2wave::mrgreen:

eace

iliveonramen · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
No, it was discussing "politicians" just like you quoted. What's with the goal-post moving exercise here?

But since you want to go there, how do "individuals" sign up to get paid for their vote?

There are a couple of issues. The stud is decades old before recent Supreme Court rulings have led to an influx of dark money.
Second of all, it's pretty broad. So, for example, how does the study account for the rider that "magically" appeared scaling back financial regulation on a bill that was to keep the government operating? The vote was to keep government funded but somehow attached to it was deregulation? Corporation/Labor etc are broad categories. There's a lot that goes into writing a bill and there are a lot of giveaways to corporations that are attached to bills that are for other purposes.

radioman · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

So what do you think? Is there evidence that donations influence the way politicians vote?

I "think" donations influence politician's votes.

http://www.campaignfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Bronars-1997-Money-And-Votes.pdf

Thirty four pages, eh?
I'm guessing there is no Cliff Notes version available.
I'll try and muscle my way through this report today.
I'll withhold my vote until then.

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
No, it was discussing "politicians" just like you quoted. What's with the goal-post moving exercise here?

But since you want to go there, how do "individuals" sign up to get paid for their vote?

It is now abundantly clear you have not read the report. It looks at voting trends and money, it does not look at individuals. Some individuals certainly do take money for votes, and some have been convicted of doing that. That is why my answer is the only accurate one, which is that it depends on the politician.

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

radioman said:
I "think" donations influence politician's votes.

Thirty four pages, eh?
I'm guessing there is no Cliff Notes version available.
I'll try and muscle my way through this report today.
I'll withhold my vote until then.

The abstract: Do Campaign Donations Alter how a Politician Votes? by Stephen G. Bronars, John R. Lott :: SSRN

[FONT=Myriad Roman, Arial, Helvetica, Sans-serif;]Despite all the work on how campaign donations influence politician's behavior, the nagging question of whether contributions alter how the politician votes or whether these contributions constitute support for like-minded individuals remains unresolved. By combining the campaign contributions literature with the work on politicians intrinsically valuing policy outcomes, we offer a simple test that examines how politicians' voting patterns change when they retire and no longer face the threat of lost campaign contributions. If contributions are causing individual politicians to vote differently, there should be systematic changes in voting behavior when future contributions are eliminated. On the other hand, if contributors donate to candidates who intrinsically value the same policies, there should be no changes in how a politician votes during the last period.[/FONT]

Note that the paper if from 1997. ALso note that one of the authors had issues with supplying a survey he claimed to have taken for another of his papers. Does not make the conclusions about this paper wrong, but is important for full disclosure,

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Redress said:
It is now abundantly clear you have not read the report. It looks at voting trends and money, it does not look at individuals. Some individuals certainly do take money for votes, and some have been convicted of doing that. That is why my answer is the only accurate one, which is that it depends on the politician.

Unless you want to pretend that the exceptions are actually the rule, you have to accept that the money doesn't actually influence the votes in any way that can be measured or determined. I know this conflicts with lots of peoples' "gut feelings" but "gut feelings" aren't very scientific and liberals really want to claim they're the "scientific" ones, right?

Jetboogieman · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

If people think that corporations and individuals give millions of dollars to campaigns just because... they're missing the point.

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
Unless you want to pretend that the exceptions are actually the rule, you have to accept that the money doesn't actually influence the votes in any way that can be measured or determined. I know this conflicts with lots of peoples' "gut feelings" but "gut feelings" aren't very scientific and liberals really want to claim they're the "scientific" ones, right?

My answer is not a "gut feel", but based entirely on the fact(not opinion) that some politicians have been convicted of selling votes. Therefore some people do in fact take money for votes in whatever form. Therefore some politicians(note that does not mean all, and does not in any way, shape or form dispute the paper) are influenced in their votes by money. I am sorry if my answer is not the one you want, but it is the accurate answer.

faithful_servant · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
Here is the most rational study I've ever seen on the issue. The methodology is to look at the records of politicians before they announce retirement and after they announce retirement. This is important because after a politician announces retirement, the donations stop flowing and the "influence of the money" evaporates.

So what do you think? Is there evidence that donations influence the way politicians vote?

http://www.campaignfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Bronars-1997-Money-And-Votes.pdf

This article has sought to answer the causality question of whether campaign
contributions are made to support politicians with the ‘‘right’’ beliefs
or whether politicians’ support can be bought. Our tests strongly reject the
notion that campaign contributions buy politicians’ votes. While it is not
possible for us to conclude that none of the congressmen ever sold their
votes for donations, our estimates demonstrate a remarkable degree of stability
in voting patterns over time, thus lending support to past work emphasizing
that it is costly for ideological politicians to alter their positions.
Contrary to the usual presumption, the article shows that campaign donations
can be ‘‘rational’’ even when they do not alter how an individual politician votes.
Just like voters, contributors appear able to sort into office politicians
who intrinsically value the same things that they do.
Both the ‘‘ideological sorting’’ and the ‘‘vote-buying’’ hypotheses are
able to explain the positive correlations observed between PAC contributions
and voting behavior. Yet our evidence also indicates that there is usually
no relationship between changing campaign donations during a congressman’s
last term and how he votes during that last term. The results
remain essentially unchanged even after alternative explanations are accounted
for, such as whether politicians were able to divert campaign funds
toward personal use and what the politician or his offspring do after he
leaves elective office.

I've heard this before, but never so well researched and explained so clearly. At the end of the day, on the whole, people support the politicians who vote for the things they support. Politicians do not vote according to who's paying the bills. Are there exceptions?? Of course there are and on all sides. So what we should be focusing on is identifying the miscreants and not simply lumping everyone together into one pseudo-homogenous mass and treating them all like they are selling their votes. Let's cull out the bad eggs and do it fast.

faithful_servant · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Jetboogieman said:
If people think that corporations and individuals give millions of dollars to campaigns just because... they're missing the point.

You didn't read anything the article said, did you?? Let me give you the "Cliff's Notes" version:
Basically there two possibilities in the money/votes scenario. One is that politicians react to the money and vote according to who's paying them. The other is that the people paying them are paying them because they vote according to what they support. The study compared the voting records of politicians before and after they announced their retirement (when campaign contributions dry up) and found little in the way of changes to how they voted. This shows that the money wasn't what was driving the votes, but the votes that were driving the money.

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Redress said:
My answer is not a "gut feel", but based entirely on the fact(not opinion) that some politicians have been convicted of selling votes. Therefore some people do in fact take money for votes in whatever form. Therefore some politicians(note that does not mean all, and does not in any way, shape or form dispute the paper) are influenced in their votes by money. I am sorry if my answer is not the one you want, but it is the accurate answer.

"Some" is valid. Some people use their cars to kill other people. That doesn't mean that you can legitimately argue that cars are murder weapons. Some politicians take bribes. That doesn't mean that campaign contributions are all bribes.

As long as we keep 'some' in perspective, I've no argument with you pointing out the fact that there are occasionally exceptions to rules.

faithful_servant · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Redress said:
My answer is not a "gut feel", but based entirely on the fact(not opinion) that some politicians have been convicted of selling votes. Therefore some people do in fact take money for votes in whatever form. Therefore some politicians(note that does not mean all, and does not in any way, shape or form dispute the paper) are influenced in their votes by money. I am sorry if my answer is not the one you want, but it is the accurate answer.

The point is that lumping them all in together and treating them all like they are criminals is the wrong approach. We should be seeking out those who are selling their votes and giving them a retirement plan that includes steel cages, one hour of yard time a day and a job making license plates.

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
"Some" is valid.

That is all you needed to say. My answer was the accurate answer.

Some people use their cars to kill other people. That doesn't mean that you can legitimately argue that cars are murder weapons. Some politicians take bribes. That doesn't mean that campaign contributions are all bribes.

That is a claim few people make.

As long as we keep 'some' in perspective, I've no argument with you pointing out the fact that there are occasionally exceptions to rules.

Accuracy is always important. Nothing I said ever in any way was contradicted by your report. This is something you would have realized if you had read my posts and the report.

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

faithful_servant said:
You didn't read anything the article said, did you?? Let me give you the "Cliff's Notes" version:
Basically there two possibilities in the money/votes scenario. One is that politicians react to the money and vote according to who's paying them. The other is that the people paying them are paying them because they vote according to what they support. The study compared the voting records of politicians before and after they announced their retirement (when campaign contributions dry up) and found little in the way of changes to how they voted. This shows that the money wasn't what was driving the votes, but the votes that were driving the money.

It was an excellent study looking at the only evidence that actually matters. If campaign money bought votes, we would see politicians doing mass flip-flopping once they announced retirement. The fact that they don't is the clearest possible evidence that it wasn't the campaign dollars that influenced their votes in the first place, but rather, as you and the study so clearly pointed out (and what actually makes the most sense) is that people support the politicians that side with them on the issues that are important to them.

Papa bull · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Redress said:
That is all you needed to say. My answer was the accurate answer.

That is a claim few people make.

Accuracy is always important. Nothing I said ever in any way was contradicted by your report. This is something you would have realized if you had read my posts and the report.

I read your posts and the report and merely clarified that you are absolutely correct that SOME people will break the law and SOME of those people are politicians and just wanted to make sure we were all keeping "some" in perspective and not giving it weight it didn't deserve. You shouldn't have a problem with that since keeping it in perspective contributes to a clear and ACCURATE picture of the dynamics involved. We don't want to lead people to infer something misleading, do we?

Redress · Feb 3, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

faithful_servant said:
The point is that lumping them all in together and treating them all like they are criminals is the wrong approach. We should be seeking out those who are selling their votes and giving them a retirement plan that includes steel cages, one hour of yard time a day and a job making license plates.

Absolutely. We should prosecute, and heavily, and corruption in our public officials, and should not care about which party they belong to. And if you read my posting history, you will find that I have long advocated that if we treat our politicians like they are trash, with no expectations of privacy for them or their families, then we really cannot complain when only trash runs for office. I have long complained about the cynicism people view politics and politicians with(see the quote in my sig).

JANFU · Feb 4, 2015

Re: Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes

Papa bull said:
Here is the most rational study I've ever seen on the issue. The methodology is to look at the records of politicians before they announce retirement and after they announce retirement. This is important because after a politician announces retirement, the donations stop flowing and the "influence of the money" evaporates.

So what do you think? Is there evidence that donations influence the way politicians vote?

http://www.campaignfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Bronars-1997-Money-And-Votes.pdf

They all have an agenda.

Do campaign efforts (contributions or ads) from PACS affect how a politican votes?

Do campaign donations influence politicians' votes?

Yes, campaign donations buy legislative votes

No, people/PACs just donate to politicians that reflect their own values.

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