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Jeb or Hillary for president in 2016?

Jeb or Hillary for president in 2016?

  • Total voters
    50
Without exception, every poll shows Clinton trouncing Jeb Bush. Polls show Clinton beating about any Republican in nearly every poll.

Yet the strongest showing of any polling for any Republican against Clinton the strongest (meaning losing by the least) is Romney. Romney also is the only Republican ever winning any poll against Clinton, such as in Iowa:
Iowa Poll: Romney leads Clinton in 2016 matchup

Historically, American voters like the comeback kid. They tend to keep the votes they had, so the question is can they pick up more? Having weathered every possible attack in the prior election, the same attacks are boring and worn out, so the candidate the is fairly immune to them the next time.

And many polls show people wish they had voted for Romney last time, a big plus.
 
joko104 said:
Your posting the same doesn't make a reality. Texas will vote for whoever is the Republican, so Texas is no example of anything. Both George W Bush and Jeb Bush came into office when both states otherwise were turning red. Texas had a particularly unusual dynamic when Bush ran because Texas was going red already and the Demo Ann Richards was seen as extremely pro-lesbian, which was particularly not acceptable in the Latino community.

Jeb Bush won because of the massive growth boom of old people to Florida ("God's waiting room for old people"), a boom the Bushes didn't create, and he had the big $$ behind him. But any Republican would have won that year because of a massive wave of Republican-voting seniors moving into the state.

If you were accurate, then every poll wouldn't be showing him resoundingly losing to Hillary Clinton, would they?

There are dynamics you like to disregard. For example, Hillary being female is an untested factor in a general election. The Latino culture is not adverse to women in leadership roles. There could be negatives to it in the African-American community. There could be huge advantages among white women.

The negative of the Bush name is massive, something you believe you can just jump past for the general election. Clinton is a positive last name. Bush is a negative last name. You also just jump past Jeb Bush on immigration policy and Common Core support in the Republican primary.

It is unknown how Jeb Bush would weather a total presidential campaign. Inner circles say he has a temper. Dangerous trait for a campaign. He has little education. He has been carried most his life by his money and connections. For example, he came into office on an appointment, then quit the job before seeking re-election.

Presidential campaigns are brutal. The Bush political machinery can certainly handle the mechanics of it. It is unknown if Jeb Bush can handle the pressure. I suspect in the end the media will look at Jeb Bush's lack of education and decide he's just not smart enough, and then selectively pick out gaffs to try to put him into a Palin-the-idiot role.

Of course, much is speculation as campaigns are dynamic. Jeb Bush is an unknown even to himself in that regards. It is known exactly the campaign Romney would run.
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Just a couple of points:

1. Current match up polls are totally irrelevant at this point because as I said before Jeb Bush is not widely known nationally while Hillary Clinton is. Jeb Bush suffers more negatives than positives from his last name, but that will change as voters get to see him in action.

2. You claim Jeb has a temper - I say he has an even temperament, at least in public. It is well known that Hillary gets very unattractive whenever pressed and has an uncontrollable, nasty temper, that many have seen. Hillary has a definite ceiling whereas Jeb has lots of upside and room to grow.

3. Hispanics didn't vote for Bush II just in Texas - they gave in 40% plus from lots of states. Jeb Bush will also benefit from that and once his family dynamic is better known, he'll benefit even more.

4. As for African Americans, they fully abandoned Hillary in 2008 and Bill and Hillary both have made negative comments about Obama both in the 2008 primaries and while Obama has been President, particularly after Hillary left the State Department. I don't think for a minute that African Americans are going to support Hillary in anywhere close to the numbers that Obama got and without those massive numbers, she can't win. She has none of the upside, fresh face, hope and changy stuff that Obama spewed to such affect. And I don't believe for a minute that Obama will actively campaign for her. Wouldn't surprise me if he tried to pull a GWB and stay out of the race entirely in 2016.
 
Fearandloathing said:
Actually, those are excellent polling numbers for Bush. The average is 7.7%. We have no date on the poll, but it was likely taken long before Bush made public noise about running, while the ex-first lady, ex-secretary of state, ex-senator has been stumping the country in the face of the nation, sometimes eclipsing Obama himself.

A move of 5% is rather easy and front runners typically tumble that much as soon as the race begins anyway. There has not been a discussion nor open debate about either's merits one on one, and few even know about Jeb's record. He is NOT his brother.

So I would say Jeb's people are seeing the same thing, know the old lady's weaknesses and have decided to spend a few hundred thousand to a few million to "test the waters".
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I think so too. But until the pollsters switch to more state by state polls instead of just one national poll, we really do not know where he stands when it comes to the electoral college math. The popular vote means nothing, it is the electoral math that counts.
 
Perotista said:
I think so too. But until the pollsters switch to more state by state polls instead of just one national poll, we really do not know where he stands when it comes to the electoral college math. The popular vote means nothing, it is the electoral math that counts.
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We're two years away from any meaningful numbers. We don't even know whether either will, indeed run. So, in the end what we're dealing with is political masturbation.
 
Fearandloathing said:
We're two years away from any meaningful numbers. We don't even know whether either will, indeed run. So, in the end what we're dealing with is political masturbation.
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LOL, yeah, but ain't it fun.
 
AJiveMan said:
I'd like to nominate Sherrod Brown of Ohio.
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One of my favorite thing was when Rush Limbaugh claimed that Sherrod Brown was chosen to fill his Senate seat because he's black. Sherrod Brown is white.
 
Dayton3 said:
What do you mean "little education". He has his college degree.
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A bachelors in Latin Studies.

Obama? Doctor Juris in Law - Harvard.

Romney? Doctor Juris in Law - Harvard & PhD in Business Administration also from Harvard.

Jeb Bush: An undergraduate degree in Latin studies; ie he learned Spanish. :lol:
 
joko104 said:
A bachelors in Latin Studies.

Obama? Doctor Juris in Law - Harvard.

Romney? Doctor Juris in Law - Harvard & PhD in Business Administration also from Harvard.

Jeb Bush: An undergraduate degree in Latin studies; ie he learned Spanish. :lol:
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You have proof that is all that is involved in a Bachelor's in Latin Studies?

And given Obama's abysmal performance, a doctorate apparently means little.
 
Kobie said:
One of my favorite thing was when Rush Limbaugh claimed that Sherrod Brown was chosen to fill his Senate seat because he's black. Sherrod Brown is white.
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Pretty funny.
Rush pronounced Brown's first name as sha-ROD when he thought Brown was black.
 
CRUE CAB said:
And that attitude is what got us here. Thanks for being part of the problem.
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I dunno CC.
Are you saying voter non-participation is the problem?
I'm guessing that if the current crop of passive, dis-interested non-voters actually decided to vote, things wouldn't change much.
I think your hope that these non-voters would vote GOP is wishful thinking at best.
 
Kobie said:
One of my favorite thing was when Rush Limbaugh claimed that Sherrod Brown was chosen to fill his Senate seat because he's black. Sherrod Brown is white.
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Most of us know that Limbaugh does extensive research before inserting his foot in mouth. :roll:

I know who Sherrod Brown is, I receive communications from his office at least once a week.
 
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Dayton3 said:
You have proof that is all that is involved in a Bachelor's in Latin Studies?

And given Obama's abysmal performance, a doctorate apparently means little.
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Well why don't you look for yourself. He got a Bachelor's degree in Latin Studies from the University of Texas.
 
Conservatives will sit-it-out due to Jeb Bush being to the LEFT of President Obama on immigration, with Jeb Bush's stance that children who are illegal immigrants should be given US citizenship, where Obama's actions only are not to deport them.

Some of the religious right will sit it out due to Jeb Bush's support of Common Core - federally required testing and federally required text books, which include teaching children to be submissive to government, that individual rights must be sacrificed for the good of the whole, advocacy of gay rights thru the school system, that climate change is a man-made crisis and other humanists agendas.

He would lose core support among Republican diehards on the right that no other Republican would. Republicans would have to try hard to find a worse general election candidate.
 
celticwar17 said:
To me, Jeb is the lessor of two evils and I think he is interesting and bold. His outline of his campaign seems to be something that hasn't been done before(or at least with popularity), and so far seems trustworthy. Clinton is just a typical snaky politician that's been there a long time... and a left wing one at that, so nooo.
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As a libertarian, are you really happy with Jeb wanting to spend government money on wars?
 
I guess no one hear thinks FDR should've been elected given he was the cousin of Theodore Roosevelt?

If you think Hoover should've been reelected or Alf Landon, Wendell Wilkie, or Dewey then you have no reason to whine about Bush or Clinton.
 
I think that a No or 3rd party vote is a vote for Hillary
 
According to retired US Admiral: [/B]

"[FONT=Times,Times New Roman]You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you have to focus on" – GW Bush[/FONT]
"[FONT=Times,Times New Roman]You have to look at the entire Bush Family in this context -- as if the family ran a corporation called ‘Frauds-R-Us,’[/FONT]
[FONT=Times,Times New Roman]George Jr.’s specialty was insurance and security fraud.
Jeb’s specialty was oil and gas fraud.
Neil’s specialty was real estate fraud.
Prescott’s specialty was banking fraud.
And George Sr.’s specialty? All of the above." -- Lt. Cmdr. Al Martin, US Navy,(Ret)

‘Frauds-R-Us’ - The Bush Family Saga
[/FONT]
 
Dayton3 said:
I guess no one hear thinks FDR should've been elected given he was the cousin of Theodore Roosevelt?

If you think Hoover should've been reelected or Alf Landon, Wendell Wilkie, or Dewey then you have no reason to whine about Bush or Clinton.
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So you are an FDR fan, are you?
 
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