I don't see anyone on the right who has a real chance of defeating Hillary Clinton.
She might be in the White House until 2025.
I think Obama fatigue has started to set in, not that he can't turn it around. But if so and it continues that could change some of what I call Democratic trustworthy states in the electoral college to swing states. For the last two election the Democrats with their trustworthy states started out with a 256-191 advantage over the Republicans. That could change if what I call Obama fatigue continues for the next two years like it did for Bush the second, Bush fatigue.
Look at the approval ratings of President Obama from a year and a half ago to today. The signs are there.
National approval rating, then 53% today 40% minus 13
Approval rating among Democrats, then 90%, today 78% minus 12
Approval rating among Republicans, then 13% today 7% minus 6 - he really can't go any lower.
Approval rating among Independents, then 47% today 36% minus 11
Party affiliation, those who affiliate themselves as Democrats, then 35%, today 29% minus 6
those who affiliate themselves as Republicans then 30%, today 26% minus 4
affiliate themselves as independents then 33%, today 42% plus 9
But what was probably the biggest change that brought the Republicans victory last week:
Independents that lean Democrat then 14% today 15% plus 1
Independents that lean Republican then 14% today 22% plus 8
the rest of independent fall into the category of either true or pure independents.
I am going to keep an eye on Obama approval ratings and on party affiliation. Especially the combined total of Democrat plus Independent lean Democrat and Republican plus Independent lean Republican. This will tell whether Obama fatigue is here to stay or is just a passing fancy that rose up and bit him last week in the butt.