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Who wins the senate?

Who wins the Senate next week?

  • Im not American, the Democrats win.

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US Conservative

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The election is only a few days off and it will be close. Im mailing in my ballot tommorow.
LJS2012112901-map1.png


(barring recounts) Who wins the Senate next week?
 
The election is only a few days off and it will be close. Im mailing in my ballot tommorow.
LJS2012112901-map1.png


(barring recounts) Who wins the Senate next week?

As of right now:

I'll say Republicans take SD, WV, MT, AR, CO, and AK as well as LA in a runoff. They hold GA in a runoff in January and keep KY.

Democrats hold NC, NH, and IA.

Greg Orman wins in KS.

That would put Republicans at 52 and Democrats at 48 with Orman choosing to caucus with the Republicans as they'd have the majority.

The ones I'm least sure about are Alaska and Iowa and Kansas. I've been hearing an awful lot about the unprecedented ground game Begich has run, especially among native Alaskans who aren't likely to be reached by the polls. There are also two recent polls, though of dubious quality, that give Begich 8-10 point leads. However, with polling in Alaska difficult and often incorrect I'm expecting the redness of the state to ultimately put Sullivan slightly ahead.

In Iowa, polls are close to a tie and early voting numbers look pretty good for Braley. Democratic support has slightly overperformed polls here in the past so I think that might push him ahead as well as the blowback Ernst is receiving in the local press for not responding to their requests for interviews.

Kansas polls are all over the board and its always hard to evaluate non-major party candidates. Still I think Orman has a slight lead and Brownback's worse than Obama popularity might ultimately put he and Davis ahead there.
 
As of right now:

I'll say Republicans take SD, WV, MT, AR, CO, and AK as well as LA in a runoff. They hold GA in a runoff in January and keep KY.

Democrats hold NC, NH, and IA.

Greg Orman wins in KS.

That would put Republicans at 52 and Democrats at 48 with Orman choosing to caucus with the Republicans as they'd have the majority.

The ones I'm least sure about are Alaska and Iowa and Kansas. I've been hearing an awful lot about the unprecedented ground game Begich has run, especially among native Alaskans who aren't likely to be reached by the polls. There are also two recent polls, though of dubious quality, that give Begich 8-10 point leads. However, with polling in Alaska difficult and often incorrect I'm expecting the redness of the state to ultimately put Sullivan slightly ahead.

In Iowa, polls are close to a tie and early voting numbers look pretty good for Braley. Democratic support has slightly overperformed polls here in the past so I think that might push him ahead as well as the blowback Ernst is receiving in the local press for not responding to their requests for interviews.

Kansas polls are all over the board and its always hard to evaluate non-major party candidates. Still I think Orman has a slight lead and Brownback's worse than Obama popularity might ultimately put he and Davis ahead there.

Seems reasonable to me.
 
I think the Republicans will win control of the Senate. ....Although, unfortunately I was wrong about the outcome of the 2012 Election concerning the Whitehouse.
 
My blurb says "Libertarian - Left", but when voting and there are no Libertarian choices, I vote Republican, when that's an option. Imo, Republicans will take the Senate. I'm even willing to bet a virtual dollar on that, lol.
 
If we are to believe the media, Republicans take the Senate. The media is untrustworthy however so who knows.
 
I think the Republicans will win but not by as much as they should be able to given the President's low approval rating. I further predict nothing will change.
 
The election is only a few days off and it will be close. Im mailing in my ballot tommorow.
LJS2012112901-map1.png


(barring recounts) Who wins the Senate next week?

This from a Reform Party Member, you will wake up Wednesday Morning with the results being that the Democrats have 47 seats, the Republicans have 50 seats, Independents have 1 seat, (Orman from Kansas) and two states will have a runoff. Louisiana and Georgia.

We will have to wait until at least December 6th when Louisiana has its runoff and if the Democrat Landrieu were to win there, then we would be waiting until January 6th for Georgia.

That is unless Independent Orman decides he would caucus with the Republicans, then as soon as he does that, the GOP would gain control of the senate. If not, we wait till at least December.

As an aside to the above, if Orman goes with the Republicans I wouldn't be surprised at all if Senator King from Maine, another so called independent decides to switch sides and also caucus with the GOP.
 
There are about 5 conservatives here, and despite being sent my ballot, I had to order another because it never came in my mailbox.
Interesting. Those mail-in ballots disappear around here, prior to delivery, as well.
 
There are about 5 conservatives here, and despite being sent my ballot, I had to order another because it never came in my mailbox.

I really don't miss having to vote absentee ballot through the mail like that. I did that for years, but nowadays I go to the voting place on Election Day, even though there is early voting.
 
As of right now:

I'll say Republicans take SD, WV, MT, AR, CO, and AK as well as LA in a runoff. They hold GA in a runoff in January and keep KY.

Democrats hold NC, NH, and IA.

Greg Orman wins in KS.

That would put Republicans at 52 and Democrats at 48 with Orman choosing to caucus with the Republicans as they'd have the majority.

The ones I'm least sure about are Alaska and Iowa and Kansas. I've been hearing an awful lot about the unprecedented ground game Begich has run, especially among native Alaskans who aren't likely to be reached by the polls. There are also two recent polls, though of dubious quality, that give Begich 8-10 point leads. However, with polling in Alaska difficult and often incorrect I'm expecting the redness of the state to ultimately put Sullivan slightly ahead.

In Iowa, polls are close to a tie and early voting numbers look pretty good for Braley. Democratic support has slightly overperformed polls here in the past so I think that might push him ahead as well as the blowback Ernst is receiving in the local press for not responding to their requests for interviews.

Kansas polls are all over the board and its always hard to evaluate non-major party candidates. Still I think Orman has a slight lead and Brownback's worse than Obama popularity might ultimately put he and Davis ahead there.

Kudos Anagram. I know you are quite young compared to most of us older farts posting on this forum, but I commend you on staying abreast of the election. Double kudos!!
 
This from a Reform Party Member, you will wake up Wednesday Morning with the results being that the Democrats have 47 seats, the Republicans have 50 seats, Independents have 1 seat, (Orman from Kansas) and two states will have a runoff. Louisiana and Georgia.

We will have to wait until at least December 6th when Louisiana has its runoff and if the Democrat Landrieu were to win there, then we would be waiting until January 6th for Georgia.

That is unless Independent Orman decides he would caucus with the Republicans, then as soon as he does that, the GOP would gain control of the senate. If not, we wait till at least December.

As an aside to the above, if Orman goes with the Republicans I wouldn't be surprised at all if Senator King from Maine, another so called independent decides to switch sides and also caucus with the GOP.

So it could take up to 2 months. Shoud be interesting to see.
 
Interesting. Those mail-in ballots disappear around here, prior to delivery, as well.

Interesting indeed. And when I checked with the voter registrar she said that had been very common for some reason. I know my ballot was sent, though.

I have probably the worst mail man in history, he used to actually open my netflix movies and if he liked them he'd watch em and send em back in. I had to go in and speak with his boss about that.
 
So it could take up to 2 months. Shoud be interesting to see.

About as interesting as the Franken-Coleman recount IMHO. I can't believe that clown is going to be re-elected (according to polling data).
 
I dont like waiting in line, its like the DMV.

With early voting and being a mid-term election, I don't think there will be much waiting where I vote at. Especially since I will purposely go when I think it will be the least amount of people there. I used to vote absentee when I voted in California for many years (when I was in the military living outside the State), but I vote in Georgia now.
 
The election is only a few days off and it will be close. Im mailing in my ballot tommorow.
LJS2012112901-map1.png


(barring recounts) Who wins the Senate next week?

Greetings, US Conservative. :2wave:

What do the light grey states represent? I live in one of them - Ohio. I'm surprised that California is grey?
 
I didn't use a mail in this election. I will be going to the polls although in Ohio, it is currently leaning all red across the board. And that does my heart good. Ohio has often been called the bell-weather state. And yes I will be voting for every R on the ballot. Don't do that often, but this year I see a need to. I see the Republicans taking the Senate. I think it will be at least an 8 senator gain. North Carolina at the moment is a tie but I bet a pan of hot cinnamon rolls that the R's take that seat too. I am also pleased to see the number of Republican governors that look to be victors. This will be very helpful in the days leading up to 2016.
 
So it could take up to 2 months. Shoud be interesting to see.

It could, but what I just said could change tomorrow. Give me a couple of new polls and the following states could change as to their forecasts.
Kansas today I give I Orman a 51% chance of winning vs. Roberts 49% chance of winning
Alaska today, Republican Sullivan a 52% change of winning vs. a 48% of winning for Begich. This is based mainly that polls in Alaska are inconsistent and unreliable.
Iowa Republican Ernst 55% chance of winning vs. Democrat Braley at 45%
North Carolina Democrat Hagan a 60% chance vs. Republican Tillis 40%
New Hampshire Democrat Shaheen 60% vs. Republican Brown 40%

The above states could change between now and election day, I do not think the others will. But you can see where the above states could easily change the numbers I gave you. Kansas stays Republican and the others remain the same, the GOP has control of the senate the day after election day. If Alaska and Iowa were to revert back to the Democrats as is very possible at this point the on the 5th it would be the Democrats with 49 and the Republicans with 47.

North Carolina and New Hampshire are the opposite way, if they happened to go Republican on election the GOP could end up with 52 seats the day after with Louisiana and Georgia still to be decided.

Yes, it is all very interesting.
 
Greetings, US Conservative. :2wave:

What do the light grey states represent? I live in one of them - Ohio. I'm surprised that California is grey?

They are just states without senate elections this year. Ive never been there, but Ohio is supposed to be a fascinating state, a microcosm of the US.
 
It could, but what I just said could change tomorrow. Give me a couple of new polls and the following states could change as to their forecasts.
Kansas today I give I Orman a 51% chance of winning vs. Roberts 49% chance of winning
Alaska today, Republican Sullivan a 52% change of winning vs. a 48% of winning for Begich. This is based mainly that polls in Alaska are inconsistent and unreliable.
Iowa Republican Ernst 55% chance of winning vs. Democrat Braley at 45%
North Carolina Democrat Hagan a 60% chance vs. Republican Tillis 40%
New Hampshire Democrat Shaheen 60% vs. Republican Brown 40%

The above states could change between now and election day, I do not think the others will. But you can see where the above states could easily change the numbers I gave you. Kansas stays Republican and the others remain the same, the GOP has control of the senate the day after election day. If Alaska and Iowa were to revert back to the Democrats as is very possible at this point the on the 5th it would be the Democrats with 49 and the Republicans with 47.

North Carolina and New Hampshire are the opposite way, if they happened to go Republican on election the GOP could end up with 52 seats the day after with Louisiana and Georgia still to be decided.

Yes, it is all very interesting.

Greetings, Pero. :2wave:

I'd like to go to sleep until then, but I'm so curious I know I can't! So...... :lamo: The mail has really been packed this time with campaign flyers, too - unusual for a midterm! I'm already dreading 2016!
 
9
It could, but what I just said could change tomorrow. Give me a couple of new polls and the following states could change as to their forecasts.
Kansas today I give I Orman a 51% chance of winning vs. Roberts 49% chance of winning
Alaska today, Republican Sullivan a 52% change of winning vs. a 48% of winning for Begich. This is based mainly that polls in Alaska are inconsistent and unreliable.
Iowa Republican Ernst 55% chance of winning vs. Democrat Braley at 45%
North Carolina Democrat Hagan a 60% chance vs. Republican Tillis 40%
New Hampshire Democrat Shaheen 60% vs. Republican Brown 40%

The above states could change between now and election day, I do not think the others will. But you can see where the above states could easily change the numbers I gave you. Kansas stays Republican and the others remain the same, the GOP has control of the senate the day after election day. If Alaska and Iowa were to revert back to the Democrats as is very possible at this point the on the 5th it would be the Democrats with 49 and the Republicans with 47.

North Carolina and New Hampshire are the opposite way, if they happened to go Republican on election the GOP could end up with 52 seats the day after with Louisiana and Georgia still to be decided.

Yes, it is all very interesting.



I wouldn't chalk up Colorado as a Republican gain just yet! I believe it will go Democrat!
 
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