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What happens if the ebola outbreak from West Africa spreads in the West?

What happens if the Ebola virus spreads in the West?


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Greetings, WCH. :2wave:

I read somewhere that Ebola could be within two mutations of becoming an airborne problem. Since there is currently no cure - at least I haven't read that there is - and considering that it takes 21 days to start showing symptons - could it mean that anything that would normally draw large crowds, like sporting events or even the midterm elections coming up in a few weeks will be cancelled? I wonder.....

This can happen just as easily, if not more easily, with other diseases, like the flu. Most people still survive Ebola, esp if they are healthy to begin with which isnt always the case in Africa.

That said, I'd much rather get the flu than Ebola....Ebola is very painful and horrible. There can be residual health issues for life.
 
How about 1+m dead impotent government intervention

In any serious epidemic....the govt will fail to contain it and to prevent widespread infrastructure collapses, rioting, and loss of life due to more than just the disease.
 
In two cases ( in North America) it has become airborte. GOOGLE EBOLA MONKEY ACCIDENT


But how convenient if the elections were to be postponed. :roll:

Since everything happening lately seems to be based on strictly political reasons, it would not surprise anyone. Ebola has been a problem in parts of Africa for quite some time now - odd that it would choose to jump from half way around the world and make an appearance here at this time in Texas of all places! Possible, but still strangely coincidental ....
 
Since everything happening lately seems to be based on strictly political reasons, it would not surprise anyone. Ebola has been a problem in parts of Africa for quite some time now - odd that it would choose to jump from half way around the world and make an appearance here at this time in Texas of all places! Possible, but still strangely coincidental ....

No it's not strange.

Ebola has not made many 'appearances' in Africa since it's initial outbreak in the '70's. It was sporadic outbreaks, not that big. However it found a population that it could exploit and spread...this is what diseases do. It just reached proportions now so that we cannot (not that we ever attempted to) control peoples' movements globally. The odds just went up that an infected person would get on a plane. It's statistics, not conspiracy.

BTW, IMO no administration would orchestrate an epidemic in the US....it would do massive harm to the economy. The minute people are afraid, they stay home....they dont go spend their money. They dont go to their jobs, and they dont go vote.
 
Sorry but I find these to be extremely poor analogies.

In most countries people with active, open TB are hospitalised and looked after in respiratory isolation until they've had several days of anti-TB therapy and are no longer infectious. That's a reasonable measure and the vast majority of hospitalised TB patients don't pass on their infection to others. No panic. In many places it's mandatory for health care workers to have had the BCG vaccine (against TB). TB cannot be compared to Ebola.

And neither can AIDS. AIDS is a pandemic, not an epidemic. Quarantine would have been and still is totally unnecessary as to limit its spread you limit at risk behaviours, that's all. Without HIV testing the whole world you wouldn't know who to quarantine anyway. What was missing in the early days was education and adequate access to counselling, testing, condoms, needle exchange etc. As somebody else has pointed out, society didn't really care if it was only gays and drug addicts dropping dead. And a few Haitians? Well they're black, and poor, and not going to enrich the pharmaceutical industry particularly, and there perhaps we have the reason why we've to date not seen massive funds put into researching diseases like Ebola, Malaria etc.

Ebola is not new. But we've waited until we we perceive a potential threat to ourselves to get upset about it. Funny that.

There are several types of TB, some never stop being infectious. Some strains become infectious again the moment the infected get weak, or stop taking their medication. We used to isolate those folks, we don't have the will for it anymore. And I suggest you look up the words pandemic and epidemic. There is no such distinction.

So much of your post gets it wrong. We have indeed researched the heck out of malaria and the only reason we haven't done so with ebola is the way it begins and then burns out. Makes it bloody hard to find the vector. And we've always been concerned about it. It's the #1 disease named when you ask folks about a bio-apocalypse.
 
No it's not strange.

Ebola has not made many 'appearances' in Africa since it's initial outbreak in the '70's. It was sporadic outbreaks, not that big. However it found a population that it could exploit and spread...this is what diseases do. It just reached proportions now so that we cannot (not that we ever attempted to) control peoples' movements globally. The odds just went up that an infected person would get on a plane. It's statistics, not conspiracy.

BTW, IMO no administration would orchestrate an epidemic in the US....it would do massive harm to the economy. The minute people are afraid, they stay home....they dont go spend their money. They dont go to their jobs, and they dont go vote.

:agree: And we could also add the fact that many businesses like grocery stores might close down temporarily in an attempt at self defense to protect themselves and their families. Many people I know are already stocking up, "just in case." Have you read anything about what Europe is doing? They are closer to Africa than we are, and there appears to be many Africans emigrating to Europe - has Ebola made an appearance there, and/or could it become an unwanted problem for them, too? It certainly seems possible. :eek:
 
There are several types of TB, some never stop being infectious. Some strains become infectious again the moment the infected get weak, or stop taking their medication. We used to isolate those folks, we don't have the will for it anymore. .

Yes, we could get into the many different types of TB: bovine, MDR etc. etc. not to mention that TB is not always pulmonary and not always infectious, but in very general terms, what I have outlined is what happens. I don't accept your comparison to Ebola.

And I suggest you look up the words pandemic and epidemic. There is no such distinction. .

I'm being pedantic, but I stand by the distinction.


We have indeed researched the heck out of malaria .

We have done far less than we would have done were it a disease of the west.

and the only reason we haven't done so with ebola is the way it begins and then burns out. Makes it bloody hard to find the vector. And we've always been concerned about it..

Come off it. Most people now panicking hadn't even HEARD of Ebola until recently.

It's the #1 disease named when you ask folks about a bio-apocalypse.

See above, media exposure and manipulation. A few years back we were all going to die of SARS. And bird flu. And pig flu.
You conveniently ignore the points about the way AIDS is spread which similarly cannot be compared to Ebola in the way you do so.
 
:agree: And we could also add the fact that many businesses like grocery stores might close down temporarily in an attempt at self defense to protect themselves and their families. Many people I know are already stocking up, "just in case." Have you read anything about what Europe is doing? They are closer to Africa than we are, and there appears to be many Africans emigrating to Europe - has Ebola made an appearance there, and/or could it become an unwanted problem for them, too? It certainly seems possible. :eek:

No I havent read anything about Europe and yes, the potential exists for it to arrive there too. If they do find it there, I dont believe that they will hide it from the media. It's a good question tho.

OTOH I have been reading post-apocalyptic fiction for 40 years and have a very good idea of what can happen. My favorite book is The Stand by Stephen King and it started my fascination with epidemiology, which I also started studying (as a layman) after loving microbiology in college.
 
Yes, we could get into the many different types of TB: bovine, MDR etc. etc. not to mention that TB is not always pulmonary and not always infectious, but in very general terms, what I have outlined is what happens. I don't accept your comparison to Ebola.

I didn't compare the two at all. Just stated that our government lacked the will to isolate and quarantine, and used TB as an example.

I'm being pedantic, but I stand by the distinction.

Now, look up "pedantic".

We have done far less than we would have done were it a disease of the west.

Wow. You couldn't be more wrong. It's been a "disease of the west" since WWII.

Come off it. Most people now panicking hadn't even HEARD of Ebola until recently.

Yeah, among those living under a rock maybe. Ebola has very high name recognition and that's not a recent thing.

See above, media exposure and manipulation. A few years back we were all going to die of SARS. And bird flu. And pig flu.
You conveniently ignore the points about the way AIDS is spread which similarly cannot be compared to Ebola in the way you do so.

It seems YOU are just now cluing in to ebola and so you believe everyone else must be just as uninformed. It's not so. And again, I didn't compare AIDS to ebola, I used it as an example of treatment and government plans.
 
No I havent read anything about Europe and yes, the potential exists for it to arrive there too. If they do find it there, I dont believe that they will hide it from the media. It's a good question tho.

OTOH I have been reading post-apocalyptic fiction for 40 years and have a very good idea of what can happen. My favorite book is The Stand by Stephen King and it started my fascination with epidemiology, which I also started studying (as a layman) after loving microbiology in college.

:thumbs: on The Stand! Have you seen the movie "Contagion?" Scary!
 
:thumbs: on The Stand! Have you seen the movie "Contagion?" Scary!

Yes. And not a bad representation.

IMO, cautionary.
 
Why do you think that is?

"Constant mutation and adaptation are the survival mechanisms of viruses and other microbes," she said. "We must not give this virus opportunities to deliver more surprises."

Ebola moving faster than control efforts, WHO warns - CBS News

[notice this was Aug. 1st]

Mutations occur all the time in all genes...most are not ever even expressed. Those that are are almost always harmful to the organism. The ones that are beneficial dont necessarily have anything to do with with their virulence. Mutations are random and it would have to relevant to the danger to humans to matter.

The experts are saying the likelihood of a 'dangerous' mutation is low right now. That likelihood rises with the number of infected individuals.

So 'constant' does not mean significant. Please dont use science improperly....doctors are speaking to the media in generalities.
 
That was a related but different virus that only certain species of monkeys get. It was not transmitted directly to any people except one who cut himself and had blood to blood contact. He didnt get it.

It was not and did not become airborne.

Chill Chicken Little

The Ebola virus replicates itself differently in every victim, increasing the chance of mutation in each case. The reserachers at Resten were very lucky this strain didn't affect humans [even though they tested positive]

Internet Scientific Publications

BTW: which are you, a doctor or a scientist?
 
Since everything happening lately seems to be based on strictly political reasons, it would not surprise anyone. Ebola has been a problem in parts of Africa for quite some time now - odd that it would choose to jump from half way around the world and make an appearance here at this time in Texas of all places! Possible, but still strangely coincidental ....

Especially since the reporter flat out ask the doctor from the CDC if the man was a citizen of this country and he dodged it. Might make someone be suspicious of his family member's citizenship.
How many people escaped to come here?

Here's info on the Resten VA> incident.

Internet Scientific Publications
 
Mutations occur all the time in all genes...most are not ever even expressed. Those that are are almost always harmful to the organism. The ones that are beneficial dont necessarily have anything to do with with their virulence. Mutations are random and it would have to relevant to the danger to humans to matter.

The experts are saying the likelihood of a 'dangerous' mutation is low right now. That likelihood rises with the number of infected individuals.

So 'constant' does not mean significant. Please dont use science improperly....doctors are speaking to the media in generalities.

I listened to the CDC doctor...he was overly-confidant, evasive at times and contradicted himself on occasion. Sorry but, having seen how the government deals with internal problems of this country, I don't trust the CDC.
 
I listened to the CDC doctor...he was overly-confidant, evasive at times and contradicted himself on occasion. Sorry but, having seen how the government deals with internal problems of this country, I don't trust the CDC.

Your interpretation means little. There is scientific consensus on this at this time....possible but not likely. I also watched the hearings. I saw at least 3 doctors reiterate this.
 
The Ebola virus replicates itself differently in every victim, increasing the chance of mutation in each case. The reserachers at Resten were very lucky this strain didn't affect humans [even though they tested positive]

Internet Scientific Publications

BTW: which are you, a doctor or a scientist?

Ebola doesnt replicate any differently than other filo viruses. And please post some source that says that.

And I study epidemiology...as a layperson with a backgound in microbiology.
 
Especially since the reporter flat out ask the doctor from the CDC if the man was a citizen of this country and he dodged it. Might make someone be suspicious of his family member's citizenship.
How many people escaped to come here?

Here's info on the Resten VA> incident.

Internet Scientific Publications

You were already told that this was not Ebola and never developed disease in any human, despite the Reston virus antibodies being found in their blood titers.
 
The Ebola virus replicates itself differently in every victim, increasing the chance of mutation in each case. The reserachers at Resten were very lucky this strain didn't affect humans [even though they tested positive]

Internet Scientific Publications

BTW: which are you, a doctor or a scientist?

I'm both a doctor and a scientist, with considerable experience in infectious disease.

I agree with Lursa. Panic is unwarranted, and the hyped up media 'concern' is exaggerated.
 
Especially since the reporter flat out ask the doctor from the CDC if the man was a citizen of this country and he dodged it. Might make someone be suspicious of his family member's citizenship.
How many people escaped to come here?

Here's info on the Resten VA> incident.

Internet Scientific Publications

That was one of the most interesting documents I have ever read! :thumbs: It's amazing to me that a research facility like that is so close to DC, though. It seems for diseases like Ebola, an unoccupied island far from land would be chosen. There wasn't any mention of anything that would have indicated that a vaccine was being developed in the time periods talked about, and that is also interesting. I have to think that would have been a priority, especially since some humans working at the Reston facility did get the Ebola virus, so I have to further assume that a possible vaccine was being worked on. Puzzling..
 
That was one of the most interesting documents I have ever read! :thumbs: It's amazing to me that a research facility like that is so close to DC, though. It seems for diseases like Ebola, an unoccupied island far from land would be chosen. There wasn't any mention of anything that would have indicated that a vaccine was being developed in the time periods talked about, and that is also interesting. I have to think that would have been a priority, especially since some humans working at the Reston facility did get the Ebola virus, so I have to further assume that a possible vaccine was being worked on. Puzzling..

Reston is an Army facility and you dont even want to know what else is going on there. They are not only researching 'known' diseases.

But they have Class 4 containment facilities there which should contain anything....as long as it stays in there. I forget if they were working on the monkeys in that containment level. Not to mention that working with animals is dangerous....humans tend to cooperate.
 
Ebola doesnt replicate any differently than other filo viruses. And please post some source that says that.

And I study epidemiology...as a layperson with a backgound in microbiology.

DR. Lisa A. Beltz in the book Emerging Infectious Diseases. states, “On several subsequent occasions during 1989, 1990 and 1996, Ebola Reston killed monkeys in colonies in the United States.”

“Some of the people at the colony in Texas and several of the workers at the facility in the Philippines also produced antibodies to the virus but did not become ill.”

The 1989 incident validates concerns that a new, airborne strain of Ebola could infect humans, and if such a mutated strain already exists, it would easily explain why Ebola is currently spreading so rapidly in Africa.

"For one thing, because Ebola doesn’t replicate itself perfectly every time it infects a victim, each new infection represents a potential mutation of the disease."

There is no consensus on Ebola.
 
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