Other.
I found the President’s strategy a mixed bag. There were parts I agreed with: airstrikes against ISIS, aiding Kurdish and Iraqi forces, expanding Intelligence-gathering and counterterrorism efforts, and continuing humanitarian assistance. Unfortunately, there were also parts that were counterproductive, namely the tactic of aiding actors in Syria’s vicious sectarian conflict with no mention of controls or mechanisms to assure that such assistance is directed at ISIS. Toward that end, the President declared:
Across the border, in Syria, we have ramped up our military assistance to the Syrian opposition. Tonight, I again call on Congress to give us additional authorities and resources to train and equip these fighters.
Assisting sectarian factions in Syria’s multifaceted civil war would be a counterproductive step. While the U.S. need not partner with the Assad government, it should not assist sectarian elements that have displayed little regard for civilian welfare, have engaged in shifting alliances of expediency resulting in weapons leakage to radical elements, have made no meaningful commitments toward American interests and those of regional American allies, and have contributed significantly to the instability that ISIS has exploited.
In the broader geopolitical framework, allies of the Assad regime can reasonably worry that increasing arms deliveries to various sectarian actors in Syria’s conflict is, at least in part, a backdoor “regime change” initiative. If so, one can expect them to step up their own assistance to that dictatorship. The end result could be a more intense sectarian conflict in Syria. Such an outcome could diminish the effectiveness of the air campaign against ISIS, as it could also create new opportunities for the terrorist organization from the expanded instability. Furthermore, there was no mention of helping Jordan and Egypt, both key American regional allies, deal with potential threats from ISIS.
Another point that I found troublesome is that the strategies in Yemen and Somalia were described as successful. In fact, both areas continue to face substantial terrorist activity. Just as President Bush famously erred in his “mission accomplished” address, I believe President Obama is prematurely proclaiming success in two initiatives that remain far more works in progress than concrete successes.
Finally, the President declared, “I can announce that America will lead a broad coalition to roll back this terrorist threat” but provided no examples to demonstrate the breadth of this coalition. In fact, later in his speech, his remarks hinted that
key parts of such a coalition are not yet in place. He stated:
Secretary Kerry was in Iraq today… and in the coming days he will travel across the Middle East and Europe to enlist more partners in this fight, especially Arab nations who can help mobilize Sunni communities in Iraq and Syria to drive these terrorists from their lands.
IMO, given their direct and large interests in the situation, the White House should already have put together the Arab coalition. That it hasn’t is not exactly encouraging. This begs the question as to whether the White House is promising more than it can deliver when it comes to putting together such a coalition.
All said, the speech was a mixed bag. There were some strong points, but also the glaring weakness of aiding sectarian factions in Syria with no mention of controls or other mechanisms to assure that such assistance would be used strictly against ISIS rather than in the pursuit of those organizations’ own sectarian goals. In short, my guess is that the fight against ISIS is unlikely to be close to resolution in the near-term. Furthermore, there is a risk that ISIS will remain a fairly formidable regional threat even by the end of the President’s term in office.
The transcript can be found at:
Text of Obama