Putin's End Game?

[grip]

If Russia eventually succeeds in taking over enough of the Ukraine to secure it's petroleum assets, will they invade another country?
And if so, will the US or NATO actively attack them with a military offensive?

 

[Glen Contrarian]

If Russia eventually succeeds in taking over enough of the Ukraine to secure it's petroleum assets, will they invade another country?
And if so, will the US or NATO actively attack them with a military offensive?

I understand the Ukraine's trying to fast-track NATO membership. That would have a significant effect on events.

 

[grip]

I understand the Ukraine's trying to fast-track NATO membership. That would have a significant effect on events.

That's almost scary, because of the implications of defending a NATO member. It probably wouldn't stop Putin either, because he believes Obama and NATO are ***** whipped.

I sure hope we don't see another "Cuban Missile Crisis", like we went thru in the 60's.

 

[Glen Contrarian]

That's almost scary, because of the implications of defending a NATO member. It probably wouldn't stop Putin either, because he believes Obama and NATO are ***** whipped.

I sure hope we don't see another "Cuban Missile Crisis", like we went thru in the 60's.

No, I really don't think that will be the case. As evil and as cunning as Putin certainly is, he's not stupid. He is a rational actor. He's not going to start a nuclear exchange. What's more, he realizes that Russia's military is a mere shell of what it once was - short of using nukes, it couldn't take on the NATO forces in Europe alone, much less America's.

 

[grip]

No, I really don't think that will be the case. As evil and as cunning as Putin certainly is, he's not stupid. He is a rational actor. He's not going to start a nuclear exchange. What's more, he realizes that Russia's military is a mere shell of what it once was - short of using nukes, it couldn't take on the NATO forces in Europe alone, much less America's.

There won't be a direct conventional conflict between Russian and US/NATO forces for any significant amount of time. They'll either back off quickly or it'll escalate out of control.

Just because of what you said that Putin isn't stupid, though he could be arrogant enough to call a bluff and go to DEFCON 4. I believe Europe would **** their pants over that situation, and give back Putin anything he wanted. Obama though reminds me of Kennedy, one of those walk softly, until he's had enough and pulls out a cannon.

 

[Sherman123]

If Russia eventually succeeds in taking over enough of the Ukraine to secure it's petroleum assets, will they invade another country?
And if so, will the US or NATO actively attack them with a military offensive?

Russia isn't overly concerned with Ukraine's petroleum industry, what they want is to secure Ukraine as a satellite state with all the attendant benefits that provides. Where will they stop? I think if you see this as a long term process then no they wont stop at Ukraine. Transnistria and Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan, potential political bridges into Central and Southern Europe, and menacing the Baltic States all strike me as extremely plausible. Fully returning Ukraine to Russian orbit would put Russia back on the frontiers of Central Europe for the first time since 1991.

 

[Wiggen]

Putin will continue in the hopes that his soul mate Rand Paul gets elected President. Then peace will break out and both Vlad and Rand have exactly the same viewpoint as to how much the US should be involved in world affairs. Which is not at all.

 

[Ockham]

Putin will continue in the hopes that his soul mate Rand Paul gets elected President. Then peace will break out and both Vlad and Rand have exactly the same viewpoint as to how much the US should be involved in world affairs. Which is not at all.

Putin will continue because Obama has more flexibility after his re-election.

 

[Wiggen]

Putin will continue because Obama has more flexibility after his re-election.

The more I read of Rand Paul's foreign policy positions, the more I think he and Vlad are sharing the same speech writer. They are indeed soul mates.

 

[grip]

Russia isn't overly concerned with Ukraine's petroleum industry, what they want is to secure Ukraine as a satellite state with all the attendant benefits that provides. Where will they stop? I think if you see this as a long term process then no they wont stop at Ukraine. Transnistria and Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan, potential political bridges into Central and Southern Europe, and menacing the Baltic States all strike me as extremely plausible. Fully returning Ukraine to Russian orbit would put Russia back on the frontiers of Central Europe for the first time since 1991.

How does not having Ukraine's petroleum reserves, especially in the West and Crimea not be an incentive for Russia? They pretty much rely on oil and gas economically, and the Ukraine is a direct connection to Europe's pipelines. I don't think few people would agree with that assessment, though they obviously want to regain as much of the former regions they once incorporated for power.

 

[Sherman123]

How does not having Ukraine's petroleum reserves, especially in the West and Crimea not be an incentive for Russia? They pretty much rely on oil and gas economically, and the Ukraine is a direct connection to Europe's pipelines. I don't think few people would agree with that assessment, though they obviously want to regain as much of the former regions they once incorporated for power.

It might be an incentive but it isn't their primary or even secondary motivation. Whether or not Ukraine was in their orbit is highly unlikely to effect whether they can ship gas to Ukraine or Europe considering both of the latter are hungry customers. Energy is probably a tertiary concern in this situation.

 

[Ockham]

The more I read of Rand Paul's foreign policy positions, the more I think he and Vlad are sharing the same speech writer. They are indeed soul mates.

Putin has a soul mate in this current administration.

 

[Linc]

Yes, Paul is the only GOP Presidential candidate running to the left of HRC and the rest of his GOP as a pre-WW2-type isolationist.

The more I read of Rand Paul's foreign policy positions, the more I think he and Vlad are sharing the same speech writer.
They are indeed soul mates.

Not to mention his daily rants on HRC, now back to Benghazi at the Koch head conferences.
The same secret conferences since 2009.

The one where Sen. McFilibuster was secretly taped a few days ago promising to shut down the gov't over a myriad of issues,
with POLICY RIDERS as Majority Leader .

 

[DaveFagan]

If Russia eventually succeeds in taking over enough of the Ukraine to secure it's petroleum assets, will they invade another country?
And if so, will the US or NATO actively attack them with a military offensive?

Russia subsidized Ukraine for the past 10 years in excess of $35 billion. Russia could have taken over Ukraine anytime. Lo and behold, instead Russia was helping them. Free money, discount gas, subsidies, and some moron insinuates that Russia/Putin wanted to conquer them? Get a grip, don't you think?

 

[Wiggen]

Putin has a soul mate in this current administration.

I know this is the current Right wing propaganda position, which makes no sense when you look a the facts. But then you guys never do, do you. You are so indoctrinated with hate for the President that you have no desire to be confused with facts. Rand Paul, on the other hand, makes no secret of his admiration for Putin and the Russian position that nothing that happens anywhere in the world is the business of the United States.

 

[Wiggen]

Russia subsidized Ukraine for the past 10 years in excess of $35 billion. Russia could have taken over Ukraine anytime. Lo and behold, instead Russia was helping them. Free money, discount gas, subsidies, and some moron insinuates that Russia/Putin wanted to conquer them? Get a grip, don't you think?

Thus speaketh Vladimir Putin's personal representative on this forum. You are so dependable.

 

[grip]

It might be an incentive but it isn't their primary or even secondary motivation. Whether or not Ukraine was in their orbit is highly unlikely to effect whether they can ship gas to Ukraine or Europe considering both of the latter are hungry customers. Energy is probably a tertiary concern in this situation.

I just don't buy that because Russia pumps gas thru 5 major pipelines in the Ukraine.

In 2007, 38.7% of the European Union's natural gas total imports and 24.3% of consumed natural gas originated from Russia. As of 2009, Russian natural gas was delivered to Europe through 12 pipelines, of which three were direct pipelines (to Finland, Estonia and Latvia), four through Belarus (to Lithuania and Poland) and five through Ukraine (to Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Poland). In 2011, an additional pipeline, Nord Stream (directly to Germany through the Baltic Sea), opened.

Russia subsidized Ukraine for the past 10 years in excess of $35 billion. Russia could have taken over Ukraine anytime. Lo and behold, instead Russia was helping them. Free money, discount gas, subsidies, and some moron insinuates that Russia/Putin wanted to conquer them? Get a grip, don't you think?

That was before we helped the majority of non Russian speaking civilians replace Viktor Yanukovych with a western favorable Petro Poroshenko. Putin has been putting the squeeze on Ukraine and using their resources for years.

 

[Cryptic]

Russia subsidized Ukraine for the past 10 years in excess of $35 billion. Russia could have taken over Ukraine anytime. Lo and behold, instead Russia was helping them.

Nobody gives anything for "free"- and that goes triple for nations.

Russia want Ukraine to revert to "little russia". Then they are going to push Belarus and Kazakhstan towards "voluntary" anchluss.

 

[German guy]

My guess is that Putin is testing his, or rather the West's, limits. So if he continues or not depends to a good part on our reaction. If our reaction hurts him and successfully sends the signal that we're strong and united enough to face Putin's challenge, he will settle for an option to save face. If not, he will take the next step soon. I doubt he has a clear-cut masterplan.

Should our reaction be underwhelming and give Putin the impression we're either too divided or cautious to draw a clear line, maybe the Baltics will be next. And they're the West's Achilles Verse -- allegedly almost impossible to defend. But if Putin pulls an "eastern Ukraine" on Latvia or Estonia and NATO does not react, NATO is dead. That would be the worst case.

 

[grip]

My guess is that Putin is testing his, or rather the West's, limits. So if he continues or not depends to a good part on our reaction. If our reaction hurts him and successfully sends the signal that we're strong and united enough to face Putin's challenge, he will settle for an option to save face. If not, he will take the next step soon. I doubt he has a clear-cut masterplan.

Should our reaction be underwhelming and give Putin the impression we're either too divided or cautious to draw a clear line, maybe the Baltics will be next. And they're the West's Achilles Verse -- allegedly almost impossible to defend. But if Putin pulls an "eastern Ukraine" on Latvia or Estonia and NATO does not react, NATO is dead. That would be the worst case.

I agree 100% that he's basically playing a game of poker. Though, I doubt even he believes that NATO will completely fold, but I'm sure he's hoping for it. I surmise, he's just going to ride this as far as he can, then cut his gains. Because he's had nothing to lose, so long as he doesn't push too hard, too fast and get an overwhelming response.

 

[Cryptic]

But if Putin pulls an "eastern Ukraine" on Latvia or Estonia and NATO does not react, NATO is dead. That would be the worst case.

I dont think Belarus and Kazakhstan are ahead of the Baltics in regards to "voluntary" union with Russia. Both are non Nato and have signifcant Russian populations (Kazakhstan) or significant russified populations (Belarus).

Putin has made several hints to Belarus over the years that full union with Russia was very desirable.

My guess is that Putin is testing his, or rather the West's, limits. So if he continues or not depends to a good part on our reaction. If our reaction hurts him and successfully sends the signal that we're strong and united enough to face Putin's challenge, he will settle for an option to save face. If not, he will take the next step soon. I doubt he has a clear-cut masterplan.

My guess is the only thing Putin respects is force. Economic sanctions may hurt him.
In the end, however, this is not about shuttered factories and played out mines in Donetsk.

Ukraine is going to be absorbed unless it becomes too costly in the lives of Russian conscripts. This means arming Ukraine with modern weapons- espescially ATGMS.

 

[Ockham]

I know this is the current Right wing propaganda position, which makes no sense when you look a the facts.

You seem more up on propaganda that me. I admit it.

But then you guys never do, do you. You are so indoctrinated with hate for the President that you have no desire to be confused with facts. Rand Paul, on the other hand, makes no secret of his admiration for Putin and the Russian position that nothing that happens anywhere in the world is the business of the United States.

Anything to defend any and all actions using any and all methods it seems is more important with "you guys". :yawn: Same old same old...

 

[Wiggen]

You seem more up on propaganda that me. I admit it.



Anything to defend any and all actions using any and all methods it seems is more important with "you guys". :yawn: Same old same old...

Which doesn't alter the fact that Putin's position on the U.S. role in the world is completely in line with Putin's. Your Libertarian and the old Commie KGB thug. Who woulda thunk it?:lamo

 

[face your]

If Russia eventually succeeds in taking over enough of the Ukraine to secure it's petroleum assets, will they invade another country?
And if so, will the US or NATO actively attack them with a military offensive?

If they attack a NATO country yes.

 

[grip]

If they attack a NATO country yes.

I'd assume so also, or at least put up some really serious sanctions and military defensive line. NATO just threatened more sanctions yesterday, while Russia is calling for the Ukraine to break up, with Russia annexing the Eastern and southern Crimea sections.