View Poll Results: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

Voters
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  • 0-2 years

    10 31.25%
  • 3-4 years

    7 21.88%
  • 5-6 years

    7 21.88%
  • 7-8 years

    1 3.13%
  • 9-10 years

    4 12.50%
  • 11-15 years

    0 0%
  • 16-20 years

    0 0%
  • 21-25 years

    0 0%
  • 26+

    0 0%
  • Never

    3 9.38%
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Thread: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

  1. #1
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    Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    Its that time again. About 13 months ago I asked this same question and then 18 months before that.
    I asked 13 months ago because the number hit around 11 i think but now its time again because the number is at 19+ with around 10 or so pending/stayed and EVERY SINGLE STATE is fighting for SSM/Equal rights. THere are no states left that don't have court cases and or legislation to achieve SSM.

    Will SCOTUS step in a make a national ruling, or will they just say the lower courts are fine and theres nothing to really review, will they fall or be in stay one by one before that? who knows but I know Im changing my answer and poll structure. It was based on every 5 years.
    about 13 months ago. http://www.debatepolitics.com/polls/...-legal-us.html
    about 31 months ago http://www.debatepolitics.com/polls/...its-legal.html

    I think by 2016 SSM/Equal rights will be national. im voting 0-2 years. What do you think in light of all the victories for equal rights?

    0-2 years
    3-4 years
    5-6 years
    7-8 years
    9-10 years
    11-15 years
    16-20 years
    21-25 years
    26+
    Never

    dont know if this is currently accurate, havent checked recently, please update if not. Thanks
    Changes/Updates in RED
    7/27/14 Version 16.0

    21 States with Equal Rights and 14 Stayed/Appealed/Pending


    21 States with Equal Rights

    Massachusetts - May 17, 2004
    Connecticut - November 12, 2008
    Iowa - April 27, 2009
    Vermont - September 1, 2009
    New Hampshire - January 1, 2010
    Washing D.C. - March 9, 2010
    FALL OF DADT Dec 18, 2010
    New York - July 24, 2011
    Washington - December 6, 2012
    Maine - December 29, 2012
    Maryland - January 1, 2013
    FALL OF DOMA - June 26, 2013
    California - June 28, 2013
    Delaware - July 1, 2013
    Rhode Island - August 1, 2013
    Minnesota - August 1, 2013
    New Jersey - October 21, 2013
    Illinois - (ruled on Nov 20th 2013) June 1, 2014 effective
    Hawaii - December 2, 2013
    New Mexico – December 19, 2013
    GSK v. Abbott Laboratories - January 21, 2014 (could be huge in gay rights, discrimination/heightened scrutiny)
    Oregon May 19, 2014
    Pennsylvania May 20, 2014
    Colorado July 23, 2014 (partial)
    Virgina - July 28th, 2014 (could affect NC, SC, WV)



    14 Stayed/Appealed/Pending
    Utah – December 20, 2013 (Stayed) June 25th 2014 10th upheld banning is unconstitutional. Ruling stayed.
    Oklahoma - (Stayed) (10th ruling could impact this)
    Kentucky - February 14, 2014 (Must recognize out-of-state marriages which will lead to their ban being defeated)
    Virginia - February 14, 2014 (Stayed)
    Texas - February 26, 2014 (Stayed)
    Tennessee March, 2014 (Direct US Constitution Challenge)(Prilim in and 3 couples are recognized, later broader ruling coming)
    Michigan - March 21, 2014 (Stayed)
    Ohio - April, 2014 Trial had narrow ruling that Ohio will recognize OTHER state marriages but didn’t impact bans. New cases expected.
    Arkansas - May 5, 2014 (Stayed)
    Idaho - May 13, 2014 (Stayed)
    Wisconsin - June 6, 2014(Stayed)
    Indiana - June 25th, 2014(Stayed)
    Kansas - June 25th, 2014(Stayed)
    Wyoming - June 25th, 2014(Stayed)
    Florida - July 17th, 2014





    20 States Working Towards Equal Rights

    13 States with Pending Court Cases to Establish Equal Rights
    Alabama
    Georgia
    Kansas (10th ruling could impact this)
    Louisiana
    Mississippi
    Montana
    Nebraska
    North Carolina
    North Dakota
    South Carolina
    South Dakota
    West Virginia
    Wyoming (10th ruling could impact this)

    4 States with Court Cases and Legislation to establish Equal Rights
    Alaska
    Arizona
    Missouri
    Nevada



    thats 50 states that could have equal rights by 2016 and some much sooner!

    US Court of Appeals Tracker
    Map: Court Locator
    1st - all states have equal rights
    2nd - all states have equal rights
    3rd - pending
    4th - RULED ON and probably going to SCOTUS
    5th- pending
    6th - pending
    7th- pending
    8th- nothing pending, talks of two cases
    9th- pending (statement released "as soon as possible")
    10-th - 3 panel judge ruled banning SSM is unconstitutional. Stayed

    State Attorney Generals no longer defending the bans due to their unconstitutionality
    California (Has equal rights now)
    Illinois (Has Equal rights now)
    Kentucky
    Nevada
    Oregon (has equal rights now)
    Pennsylvania(has equal rights now)
    Virginia(stayed)

    THERE ARE NO STATES LEFT NOT FIGHTING FOR EQUAL RIGHTS


    #EqualRightsAreWinning!!!!!!!!!!!!


    also please feel free to let me know of any corrections or updates that need made, equality is kicking so much ass its hard to keep up, thanks
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    If you are talking nationally, I think 5-6 years. Simply because there will be a few states that hold out which will force a SCOTUS ruling that will make SSM legal across the land.

  3. #3
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    If you are talking nationally, I think 5-6 years. Simply because there will be a few states that hold out which will force a SCOTUS ruling that will make SSM legal across the land.
    you dont think SCOTUS will rule before then? with the current stays some appeals directly to SCOTUS people in that area think SCOTUS will hear arguments as soon as 2015.


    Now they could punt . . .somehow but with the appeals it will make it hard. . . the appeals are pretty direct and if they uphold the federal court rulings that all mention some of these in some form equal rights, the 14th, references to Loving v. Virginia and scrutiny levels a punt will be magic to pull off.

    at this point i dont think they can even pass up ruling in some fashion can they? the direct appeals will have to be dealt with in some form . . .

    I guess anything is possible but id be shocked at anything longer than 2017
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    Quote Originally Posted by AGENT J View Post
    you dont think SCOTUS will rule before then? with the current stays some appeals directly to SCOTUS people in that area think SCOTUS will hear arguments as soon as 2015.
    I think they will punt for a while longer until more and more cases start making their way up. Eventually they are going to have to take it up. I'd like for it to be sooner, but I don't see it happening.

  5. #5
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    I think they will punt for a while longer until more and more cases start making their way up. Eventually they are going to have to take it up. I'd like for it to be sooner, but I don't see it happening.
    hmmm interesting, they will have to work some magic to punt. also since the appeals are coming from federal districts even a couple punts will make it legal for muiltiple states. 2 punts or even one punt if the combined the appeals could make it legal for like 8-12 states, theres not many left. . ..

    im starting to think that maybe thats more possible, maybe they will punt but then by default it will be national anyway of very close . . interesting

    like you thought i hope not i hope 2016
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    I say 5-6 years. Not sure why, but that's what my gut tells me.

  7. #7
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    I think they will punt for a while longer until more and more cases start making their way up. Eventually they are going to have to take it up. I'd like for it to be sooner, but I don't see it happening.
    I think they can more easily punt this with a case like Utah that would only open up marriage for same sex couples in states where the law allows for first cousins to marry only if they are unable to have children but then the state claims that one of the main reasons they have for denying marriage to same sex couples is because they cannot have children. This is a huge contradiction for them. But it also would allow the SCOTUS to make a very narrow ruling that would not fully open up same sex marriage to everyone, would allow them to deny to hear the other cases coming up, deferring back to the lower court decision, and basically put the entire argument off for another couple of years. Ultimately, such a thing would be cowardly.

    Luckily, I don't think this is likely to happen unless the more conservative members of the Court recognize that they could do this and band together for such a decision. Because the more liberal members of the Court are not likely to make such a narrow ruling on this given their past decisions.

    I don't think they can punt this very well though because most of the decisions coming up are going to open up marriage to same sex couples in many states already if they deny the hearing and any contradictory ruling would prevent them from even being able to put it off. If just one Circuit Court rules for the states, they will have to hear at least one of these decisions because otherwise they can't just send them back to the lower court ruling without being contradictory and not settling the question.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  8. #8
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheNextEra View Post
    If you are talking nationally, I think 5-6 years. Simply because there will be a few states that hold out which will force a SCOTUS ruling that will make SSM legal across the land.
    Err, this is what's been going on the whole time. Utah is appealing directly to SCOTUS. That case will be taken by next summer.

  9. #9
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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    I voted 9-10

    but my hope would be no more than 5.

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    Re: Same Sex Marriage, how long till its national?

    As I understand it marriage has always been a state issue (with the exception of certain federal domains like the military) so hopefully its not SCOTUS that will determine this.

    I am for gay marriage. I am not for the tactics of the left to achieve this...identity politics.

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