View Poll Results: What do you think about the economic situation in the US?

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  • Everything is completely falling apart, there is nothing we can do now.

    4 10.53%
  • Everything is falling apart fast, if we act fast we can stop a collapse.

    5 13.16%
  • Its dier, we need to do something quickly.

    4 10.53%
  • Bush is the cause of this decline, he must resign now.

    4 10.53%
  • The dollar will do the work, everything will even out over time.

    5 13.16%
  • We will manage it, but it will take time and missery.

    9 23.68%
  • Its alright, shouldnt be to difficult to fix.

    0 0%
  • Everything is fine as it is.

    3 7.89%
  • Other.. (explain)

    2 5.26%
  • Everything is the fault of John Kerry..

    2 5.26%
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Thread: The fall of the dollar..

  1. #31
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    I've taken Macro and Micro and read alot about the subject so much so that I know the trade deficit has nothing to do with the value of currency and that the value of currency is determined by the amount of money supply and the size of the GDP.
    Yes it does, in a market economy, people will buy less with a low value dollar, exports will fall, and people from foreign countries will buy more from the US, since things are cheaper.

    And yeah, just to your information, a trade surplus is a nice money SUPPLY.
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  2. #32
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    Yes it does, in a market economy, people will buy less with a low value dollar, exports will fall, and people from foreign countries will buy more from the US, since things are cheaper.
    The U.S. has intentionally undervalued their currency and so has China which is about 100 years behind us on the industrialized scale.

    And yeah, just to your information, a trade surplus is a nice money SUPPLY.
    A service based industry is way better, we have evolved on the capitalist chain, labor is pretty much a non-factor, we're a service based economy with a higher GDP than any country or group of countries put together.

  3. #33
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    The U.S. has intentionally undervalued their currency and so has China which is about 100 years behind us on the industrialized scale.



    A service based industry is way better, we have evolved on the capitalist chain, labor is pretty much a non-factor, we're a service based economy with a higher GDP than any country or group of countries put together.

    The US dollar is overvalued. Thats the point and its indisputable.


    Why are you mixing service economy into this?
    And you are wrong, the Eurozone-13 is a larger economy than the US.. Not only that, the EU-27 is 1/10th larger than that again..

    China is valued at 2 trillion $ in GDP terms while in GDP puchasing power parity the Chinese economy is worth 8 trillion.. With exports of 700 billion a year its more likely Chinas economy is worth 8 trillion than 2 trillion.

    All these relations are playing in, which is why the US dollar is loosing value, and the interests in the US is just about keeping the bubble from bursting.

    Now, the US exports have to grow, while their import has to decline.. Their dollar is falling now to close the GAP, as long as the gap is so wide the US currency is wrongly valued.

    Now the falling dollar has made the EU-27 economy approximately 14.5 trillion $(in comparison to the US).
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  4. #34
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    The US dollar is overvalued. Thats the point and its indisputable.
    No point is indisputable Max, especially the one you are trying to make.


    And you are wrong, the Eurozone-13 is a larger economy than the US.. Not only that, the EU-27 is 1/10th larger than that again..
    So 13 countries added together have a larger economy than a US? and 14 more added on to that are only a little bit larger? I'd say that speaks pretty damn well for the US.
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  5. #35
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Maximus Zeebra View Post
    The US dollar is overvalued. Thats the point and its indisputable.
    Yes it is disputable because the U.S. intentionally undervalues its currency by increasing the money supply.

    Why are you mixing service economy into this?
    Because its not foreign trade that is responsible for the value of currency it is the size of the GDP and the amount of money in circulation. The U.S. economy is heavily serviced based which is why we have such a large GDP yet import more than we export. The trade deficit signals how strong our economy and dollar really are in that we trade paper money for made goods.

    And you are wrong, the Eurozone-13 is a larger economy than the US.. Not only that, the EU-27 is 1/10th larger than that again..
    You're right my bad I thought the U.S. had a higher GDP than the EU.

    China is valued at 2 trillion $ in GDP terms while in GDP puchasing power parity the Chinese economy is worth 8 trillion.. With exports of 700 billion a year its more likely Chinas economy is worth 8 trillion than 2 trillion.
    This doesn't take into account that the U.S. is a well diversified economy the fact that a dollar can buy much more in China than it can in the U.S. is proof of how strong the dollar actually is and how inefficient and undiversified the Chinese market is. Their market is where the U.S.'s was at the begining of the industrial revolution.

    All these relations are playing in, which is why the US dollar is loosing value,
    No the reason why the dollar is loosing value is because we have increased the money supply so that we can trade more paper for made goods. That is not a signal that the $ is weak it is a sign of how efficient and diversified the U.S. economy is.

    Now, the US exports have to grow, while their import has to decline..
    Why would we have to do that? Our GDP is still going to be huge no matter what, we don't have to manufacture made goods, the U.S. economy has evolved to the point that we can purchase those goods in exchange for services.

    Their dollar is falling now to close the GAP, as long as the gap is so wide the US currency is wrongly valued.
    Our dollar value has fallen because we increased the money supply.

  6. #36
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    Yes it is disputable because the U.S. intentionally undervalues its currency by increasing the money supply.
    The combination is that the US is nagging China to change the value of their currency, because its clearly undervalued, and it is, clearly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    Because its not foreign trade that is responsible for the value of currency it is the size of the GDP and the amount of money in circulation. The U.S. economy is heavily serviced based which is why we have such a large GDP yet import more than we export. The trade deficit signals how strong our economy and dollar really are in that we trade paper money for made goods.
    Loads of economies are servicebased, so I dont understand your point.
    Chinas economy is in a complete change, not like you think that they are where the US was in the start of the industrial revolution. They clearly arent, their economy is now roughly the total size of the US. The Chinese economy is maturing faster than any economy in the world.

    One statistics says that Norway is the richest country in the world, when the fact is quite different.. Another statistic show the scandinavian/nordic country of who have the least money left after paying their housing and groceries every month is the Norwegians.
    In China this also means something, because the Chinese they get lots of things for far less, so their purchasing power is bigger inland, but abroad its still expensive. In Europe its relatively alright inlands, but anywhere you go in the world, everything is cheap. You will probably notice a huge difference if you take a trips across the atlantic or pacific on the prices and just how little the dollar is worth. Now, we all know the dollar is overvalued, because the US is buying much more abroad than they are selling.
    This is damaging, because if it continues the only way the dollar can go is down. If on the other hand the exports was bigger than imports, the dollar could only go up.


    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    You're right my bad I thought the U.S. had a higher GDP than the EU.
    Good to see that the confusion is over. The EU economy is just getting bigger and bigger in dollar terms. The Chinese economy like the Chinese currency is valued now is only worth 2 trillion $. If the Chinese currency were to strengthen against the dollar.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    This doesn't take into account that the U.S. is a well diversified economy the fact that a dollar can buy much more in China than it can in the U.S. is proof of how strong the dollar actually is and how inefficient and undiversified the Chinese market is. Their market is where the U.S.'s was at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
    Did I ever say the US economy was not a well and diversified economy?

    What you say there is not a strenght, its the fact that the Chinese have a "locked" currency which is set by the government and its far undervalued.. Just recently this is starting to change, The Chinese currency is slowly rising in value, and is estimated it should be 1 dollar for 2 Chinese currency. This would triple the "market value" of the Chinese economy.
    There is no market value on the Chinese economy, thats the whole point, thats why the dollar will fall to the Chinese currency.

    The Euro on the other hand is just the most stable and trustable currency there is, it will be used as a marker for both the US and China when they adjust their currency. Its going to be exciting to see the swings to get the currencies completely revalued.


    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    No the reason why the dollar is loosing value is because we have increased the money supply so that we can trade more paper for made goods. That is not a signal that the $ is weak it is a sign of how efficient and diversified the U.S. economy is.
    The Money supply? Lol, the money drain you mean? US assets abroad will be far less worth and in the US they will also be far less worth, it will be cheaper for Europe and China to buy American companies.



    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    Why would we have to do that? Our GDP is still going to be huge no matter what, we don't have to manufacture made goods, the U.S. economy has evolved to the point that we can purchase those goods in exchange for services.
    No its not, if the Euro is valued at 1.65$ = 1, and the 1 Chinese currency = 2 dollar.

    If that is the case, the US economy relative to the Chinese and the Euro economy is worth far less, a money drain has taken place, and the US economy is greatly devalued. As a result you interest rates will rise to high levels. Then you will save more and spend less, the imports will fall, the exports will hopefully increase.



    Quote Originally Posted by Trajan Octavian Titus View Post
    Our dollar value has fallen because we increased the money supply.
    Money drain you mean..?
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  7. #37
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    This thread is so interesting that it should be in the hall of fame of debates.
    It is necessary for you all to re-read this thread before respoding to this post.

    1. I knew already then that Obama would become president.. Wow.

    2. I saw the trend of the declining US dollar, the declining US economy and so fourth put against GDP. All of you contested that opinion/prediction that the US economy was in relative decline. This makes it interesting to compare GDP numbers of 2007 with those of 2009. In where:
    -All countries using the Euro has seen a great revaluation against the US economy.
    -Where most countries has seen a moderate or strong revaluation against the US economy.

    3. I argued that the dollar was overvalued. Which is was and still is with current economic evaluations. Dollar value has declined greatly not only against the Euro, but against most currencies between then and now.

    4. I argued that the US dollar would continue to decline and the US economy with it, until exports and imports reach parity and debts are payed down at state level and corporate level. This is a clear ongoing process and have been proven over the last 2 years to be true.

    5. I predicted actual economic decline that would be felt on all levels in the US as result of the debts and loose monetary policies of the past.

    I was right in many other things as well throughout the thread..

    I was wrong about some things..

    1. That Obama would cut spending and raise taxes.
    -Which can only mean he wants to devalue the dollar completely or drive the dollar into complete and utter collapse and from there revalue the economy on the world stage.
    2. The US dollar vs the pound.. I predicted 2.25 -2.5 as happening. It will not happen, my opinion on this is changed. The state of the UK economy, which was not of great interest to me at the time, is in a dreadful situation, the UK econonomy is the economy of the world which is facing the worst future of all economies, dreadful prognosis.



    Anyways, interesting points you all made, but then again you were all wrong.
    Last edited by Maximus Zeebra; 10-11-09 at 02:15 PM.
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  8. #38
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    What's up with the necrothread?
    "The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis."

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  9. #39
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    What's up with the necrothread?
    LOL @ necrothread .... but, it was interesting to scan.

  10. #40
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    Re: The fall of the dollar..

    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    What's up with the necrothread?
    I honestly thought this was a current threat until I saw TOT's posts.
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