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100 years since the start of the first world war

Do you think there will ever be another world war?

  • Yes, within the next 100 years

    Votes: 7 29.2%

  • Yes, but not within the next 100 years

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Maybe, and if it happens it will be within the next 100 years

    Votes: 2 8.3%

  • Maybe, but not in the next 100 years

    Votes: 2 8.3%

  • No, there will never be another world war

    Votes: 5 20.8%

  • I simply do not know if there will be one or not

    Votes: 7 29.2%

  • The next big war will be an intergalactic one with an alien species/war on another planet

    Votes: 1 4.2%
  • Total voters
    24
Peter King

Peter King

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Tomorrow July 28 2014 will be the centenary of the beginning of the first world war.

Since then we have had 2 world wars with millions of killed soldiers and innocent civilian victims.

We have seen the rise and the fall of the league of nations.

We have seen the formulation of Geneva conventions on war crimes.

The start of the world court to prosecute war criminals around the world.

The start of the cold war and the Warshaw pact and the fall of the Soviet Union.

But the question is, do you think there will ever be another world war?
 
Peter King said:
Tomorrow July 28 2014 will be the centenary of the beginning of the first world war.

Since then we have had 2 world wars with millions of killed soldiers and innocent civilian victims.

We have seen the rise and the fall of the league of nations.

We have seen the formulation of Geneva conventions on war crimes.

The start of the world court to prosecute war criminals around the world.

The start of the cold war and the Warshaw pact and the fall of the Soviet Union.

But the question is, do you think there will ever be another world war?
Click to expand...


I believe we are amidst one today propagated largely by the US. The difference today being we have found that we do not need to always use direct military force but can instead use economic and political means to the same end. Why put solderers on the ground when you can replace them with CIA operatives and manipulate things to a desired outcome instead of directly forcing the outcome by military means.
 
No. Einstein knew what he was doing when he proposed atomic weapons.
 
We are watching the start of a world war right now. Too bad people won't realize it until they are dead thanks to Enrico Fermi (Not Einstein who provided no scientific work to the idea).
 
Peter King said:
Tomorrow July 28 2014 will be the centenary of the beginning of the first world war.

Since then we have had 2 world wars with millions of killed soldiers and innocent civilian victims.

We have seen the rise and the fall of the league of nations.

We have seen the formulation of Geneva conventions on war crimes.

The start of the world court to prosecute war criminals around the world.

The start of the cold war and the Warshaw pact and the fall of the Soviet Union.

But the question is, do you think there will ever be another world war?
Click to expand...

Since 1945 the probability of world war has been strongly reduced by the architecture of international power. With one or two poles of power and MAD it is relatively easy to keep a lid on things. As the structure advances to three and more poles and a multiple of more or less armed secondary powers, the situation becomes increasingly less calculable and thus more instable. In a few years the situation will be back to the "normal" structure of international affairs and we will have continuous small wars until one explodes.
 
KevinKohler said:
No. Einstein knew what he was doing when he proposed atomic weapons.
Click to expand...

I wish it were so. Sorrily the MAD stability solution does not apply to multi-polar systems.
 
austrianecon said:
We are watching the start of a world war right now. Too bad people won't realize it until they are dead thanks to Enrico Fermi (Not Einstein who provided no scientific work to the idea).
Click to expand...

Fermi was okay. His bomb gave us a good life.
 
I have absolutely no idea.
 
Baralis said:
I believe we are amidst one today propagated largely by the US. The difference today being we have found that we do not need to always use direct military force but can instead use economic and political means to the same end. Why put solderers on the ground when you can replace them with CIA operatives and manipulate things to a desired outcome instead of directly forcing the outcome by military means.
Click to expand...



Is the world in flames with shooting conflicts on 5 out of seven continents the "desired outcome" of this administration?
 
Peter King said:
Tomorrow July 28 2014 will be the centenary of the beginning of the first world war.

Since then we have had 2 world wars with millions of killed soldiers and innocent civilian victims.

We have seen the rise and the fall of the league of nations.

We have seen the formulation of Geneva conventions on war crimes.

The start of the world court to prosecute war criminals around the world.

The start of the cold war and the Warshaw pact and the fall of the Soviet Union.

But the question is, do you think there will ever be another world war?
Click to expand...

Possibly...but unless there is a catastrophe that significantly weakens worldwide civilization, no. For instance, as long as the internet is functioning in a robust fashion, I think a true world war is unlikely. However, if for some reason the internet is torn down - say, deliberately by a nation's actions, or naturally, by a Carrington event or similar great disaster - then that may significantly increase the likelihood that the current great powers might devolve to the point where a new world war is a real possibility.

On a related note, even with all the crap going on in the Ukraine and in the Middle East, since the fall of the Soviet Union the world has been - relatively speaking to the size of the world's population - in a Great Peace. For the past quarter century, even with all the little and seemingly big wars that have happened, the world's been relatively more peaceful (meaning, fewer people dying due to war and war-related causes) than in any comparable stretch of time I can think of in the past.

So relax - the sky is not falling, and things are better than they seem. The glass is indeed more than half full.
 
joG said:
Fermi was okay. His bomb gave us a good life.
Click to expand...

Actually, I agree with this. We stood on the razor's edge of a worldwide catastrophe, but thanks to nuclear weapons, we did not go to all-out war with the Soviets...and as another example, India and Pakistan have not fought any truly major battles since they both acquired nukes.
 
code1211 said:
Is the world in flames with shooting conflicts on 5 out of seven continents the "desired outcome" of this administration?
Click to expand...

You've been watching too much of "The sky is falling!!!!!" crap coming off of Fox News and right-wing media.

Why?

Even with all the crap going on in the Ukraine and in the Middle East, since the fall of the Soviet Union the world has been - relatively speaking to the size of the world's population - in a Great Peace. For the past quarter century, even with all the little and seemingly big wars that have happened, the world's been relatively more peaceful (meaning, fewer people dying due to war and war-related causes) than in any comparable stretch of time I can think of in the past.

Think about it - can you point to any quarter-century period in all recorded human history where some relatively major war wasn't going on, where genocide and war-related famine and pestilence weren't ravaging different parts of the world, to a greater relative degree than has been occurring since the fall of the USSR?

I don't think you can.

So relax - and remember the reason why you see so much bad news is because bad news sells better than good news...see the Chicken-Little news broadcasts for what they are: a way to make money.
 
Baralis said:
I believe we are amidst one today propagated largely by the US. The difference today being we have found that we do not need to always use direct military force but can instead use economic and political means to the same end. Why put solderers on the ground when you can replace them with CIA operatives and manipulate things to a desired outcome instead of directly forcing the outcome by military means.
Click to expand...

Is this really any different than what the British East India Company did for generations?

And can you name a period in history where - relatively speaking - fewer people were being killed in war and by war-related causes than today?

No?

Think about that for a while.
 
Glen Contrarian said:
You've been watching too much of "The sky is falling!!!!!" crap coming off of Fox News and right-wing media.

Why?

Even with all the crap going on in the Ukraine and in the Middle East, since the fall of the Soviet Union the world has been - relatively speaking to the size of the world's population - in a Great Peace. For the past quarter century, even with all the little and seemingly big wars that have happened, the world's been relatively more peaceful (meaning, fewer people dying due to war and war-related causes) than in any comparable stretch of time I can think of in the past.

Think about it - can you point to any quarter-century period in all recorded human history where some relatively major war wasn't going on, where genocide and war-related famine and pestilence weren't ravaging different parts of the world, to a greater relative degree than has been occurring since the fall of the USSR?

I don't think you can.

So relax - and remember the reason why you see so much bad news is because bad news sells better than good news...see the Chicken-Little news broadcasts for what they are: a way to make money.
Click to expand...

The stats are pretty clear here.

qese3uty.jpg
 
Glen Contrarian said:
Actually, I agree with this. We stood on the razor's edge of a worldwide catastrophe, but thanks to nuclear weapons, we did not go to all-out war with the Soviets...and as another example, India and Pakistan have not fought any truly major battles since they both acquired nukes.
Click to expand...

Don't be too optimistic about the future though. The Pakistan India situation is not over and more proliferation spreads, the more probable technical or human mistakes or war escalating from regional conflicts and brouhahas loom as real dangers to us all.
 
Glen Contrarian said:
You've been watching too much of "The sky is falling!!!!!" crap coming off of Fox News and right-wing media.

Why?

Even with all the crap going on in the Ukraine and in the Middle East, since the fall of the Soviet Union the world has been - relatively speaking to the size of the world's population - in a Great Peace. For the past quarter century, even with all the little and seemingly big wars that have happened, the world's been relatively more peaceful (meaning, fewer people dying due to war and war-related causes) than in any comparable stretch of time I can think of in the past.

Think about it - can you point to any quarter-century period in all recorded human history where some relatively major war wasn't going on, where genocide and war-related famine and pestilence weren't ravaging different parts of the world, to a greater relative degree than has been occurring since the fall of the USSR?

I don't think you can.

So relax - and remember the reason why you see so much bad news is because bad news sells better than good news...see the Chicken-Little news broadcasts for what they are: a way to make money.
Click to expand...




The fall of the Soviet Union was one of the various results of the Pax Americana that has reigned since WW2 ended.

The withdrawal of the influence of the USA from the world stage perpetrated by the guy in the White House is producing the fruit of the last 4 years. The years that occurred before 2008 were not of his doing.

The stage was set for him to fail after Bush removed one of the cornerstones from the balance of power in the Middle East with no plan for the after fall. However, the failure that Obama has achieved is far and away greater than anything anyone could have predicted.

Obama is really nothing short of a savant in destroying the USA in order to destroy the world. With the help and the ideology of the leftovers of the Weathermen Underground, he is fulfilling the dreams of the left wing radicals of the 60's and the 70's.
 
Last edited:
Glen Contrarian said:
Is this really any different than what the British East India Company did for generations?

And can you name a period in history where - relatively speaking - fewer people were being killed in war and by war-related causes than today?

No?

Think about that for a while.
Click to expand...



You seem to be tinkling that the last 5 or 6 years is a great example of successful statesmanship.

The last 5 or 6 years has been an example of the mischievous nations and actors in the world in Europe, Africa, Asia, South America and the Middle East to measure the leader of our country. They have found him to be a gutless, witless, paper tiger with no courage, intelligence or ability to lead.

The preceding period of peace that you seem to be crediting to Obama that occurred before Obama got the chance to muddle things up is not so much different than the period from 1900 to 1910.
 
Glen Contrarian said:
Possibly...but unless there is a catastrophe that significantly weakens worldwide civilization, no. For instance, as long as the internet is functioning in a robust fashion, I think a true world war is unlikely. However, if for some reason the internet is torn down - say, deliberately by a nation's actions, or naturally, by a Carrington event or similar great disaster - then that may significantly increase the likelihood that the current great powers might devolve to the point where a new world war is a real possibility.

On a related note, even with all the crap going on in the Ukraine and in the Middle East, since the fall of the Soviet Union the world has been - relatively speaking to the size of the world's population - in a Great Peace. For the past quarter century, even with all the little and seemingly big wars that have happened, the world's been relatively more peaceful (meaning, fewer people dying due to war and war-related causes) than in any comparable stretch of time I can think of in the past.

So relax - the sky is not falling, and things are better than they seem. The glass is indeed more than half full.
Click to expand...

You don't need a catastrophe to significantly weaken "civilization". Looking at deaths as a measure is actually quiet asinine considering the advancement in modern medicine since WW2 For example.. Today after the creation of MASH (now Combat Support Hospitals) deaths resulting from combat wounds went down dramatically.. for example in the Korean War, if you made it to a MASH unit, you had a 97% survival rate. Then difference in type of combat. Low Intensity Conflict (Guerrilla warfare and Terrorism) is now the main way to fight. This also makes large standing armies pointless. You aren't gonna see a 1 million man army outside of China any time soon. So that also makes a difference as well.
 
Well, since it's been 100 years...let's start another one for old times sake.

Who wants to go to Sarajevo?
 
Well, since it's been 100 years...let's start another one for old times sake.

How do you get to Sarajevo?
 
code1211 said:
The fall of the Soviet Union was one of the various results of the Pax Americana that has reigned since WW2 ended.

The withdrawal of the influence of the USA from the world stage perpetrated by the guy in the White House is producing the fruit of the last 4 years. The years that occurred before 2008 were not of his doing.

The stage was set for him to fail after Bush removed one of the cornerstones from the balance of power in the Middle East with no plan for the after fall. However, the failure that Obama has achieved is far and away greater than anything anyone could have predicted.

Obama is really nothing short of a savant in destroying the USA in order to destroy the world. With the help and the ideology of the leftovers of the Weathermen Underground, he is fulfilling the dreams of the left wing radicals of the 60's and the 70's.
Click to expand...

Dude...you really need to lay off the grape Kool-Aid....

Lemme see here...the Dow's on track to perhaps even triple what it was two months after Obama took office, the deficit's been cut by more than 50%...and Obama's grown the government more slowly than any president since Eisenhower.

We are now involved in ZERO major wars - Afghanistan's in the last few months of an occupation, and all we have in Iraq are a relatively few troops in an 'advisory' role.

Add to that the fact that Obama's gotten us closer to having universal health care (like ALL the other first-world democracies already have) than any other president...and the percentage of uninsured has already dropped significantly.

"Don't-ask-don't-tell" is gone and most of the nation's come to understand that discrimination against LGBT's is flatly wrong, just as any discrimination is wrong.

And on top of all that, he's been having to deal with the most obstructionist Congress since the Civil War. This Congress can't even pass VA reform because the Republicans refuse to pay for it, thinking that tax cuts will somehow pay for the tens of billions more tax dollars that will be required to pay for reform of the VA.

You can gripe all you want...but history is going to show that Obama was in retrospect a very good president indeed.
 
code1211 said:
You seem to be tinkling that the last 5 or 6 years is a great example of successful statesmanship.

The last 5 or 6 years has been an example of the mischievous nations and actors in the world in Europe, Africa, Asia, South America and the Middle East to measure the leader of our country. They have found him to be a gutless, witless, paper tiger with no courage, intelligence or ability to lead.

The preceding period of peace that you seem to be crediting to Obama that occurred before Obama got the chance to muddle things up is not so much different than the period from 1900 to 1910.
Click to expand...

Um, if you'll notice, I'm referring to the last quarter century. I know, I know, all you can see and think about is Obama - you've got a serious case of "Obama Derangement Syndrome" - but this is much bigger than Obama or even America as a whole.

And the period between 1900 and 1910 was NOT so peaceful - we were dealing with the Huk rebellion in the Philippines after we kicked out the Spanish during the Spanish-American War (and where we committed a small-scale genocide), the Russians and the Japanese had a major war, there was the second Boer War in Africa...

...and those are the ones I know of off the top of my head. I'm sure I could find more if necessary.

Try again, guy - we ARE in the middle of what is (relatively speaking) the most peaceful time in recorded human history. And yes, this DOES take into account Rwanda.
 
austrianecon said:
You don't need a catastrophe to significantly weaken "civilization". Looking at deaths as a measure is actually quiet asinine considering the advancement in modern medicine since WW2 For example.. Today after the creation of MASH (now Combat Support Hospitals) deaths resulting from combat wounds went down dramatically.. for example in the Korean War, if you made it to a MASH unit, you had a 97% survival rate. Then difference in type of combat. Low Intensity Conflict (Guerrilla warfare and Terrorism) is now the main way to fight. This also makes large standing armies pointless. You aren't gonna see a 1 million man army outside of China any time soon. So that also makes a difference as well.
Click to expand...

It's not just a measure of deaths, but of major conflicts. Yes, there have been quite a few low-intensity conflicts, but these do not come close to comparing with outright war...and outright wars have been few and far between since the fall of the USSR. The only ones I can think of are the Rwanda genocide, Afghanistan (which really wasn't much of a war in the historical sense), our (illegal and unprovoked) invasion of Afghanistan, and the civil war in Syria...and other than a few relatively minor rebellions like Egypt and Libya and some relatively minor actions like Russia's annexation of Georgia, that's about it. I cannot think of any other 25-year period that was as peaceful, relative to the world's population.

I quite agree that large standing armies are becoming less of a necessity, but we will always need a strong army - no matter what, a nation at war cannot occupy a location without boots on the ground (and I credit that particular lesson to a retired Marine back in the mid-80's who helped me install a badly-needed window in my navel so I could see where I was going).

I also quite agree that China will probably always need a large standing army - and I'm pretty sure you said that because they need it not for offensive actions against other nations, but for internal security like the almost-simmering revolt going on in Xinjiang by the minority Uighurs.

And just to tick you off, I'll sign,

Keynesianecon
 
Peter King said:
Tomorrow July 28 2014 will be the centenary of the beginning of the first world war.

Since then we have had 2 world wars with millions of killed soldiers and innocent civilian victims.

We have seen the rise and the fall of the league of nations.

We have seen the formulation of Geneva conventions on war crimes.

The start of the world court to prosecute war criminals around the world.

The start of the cold war and the Warshaw pact and the fall of the Soviet Union.

But the question is, do you think there will ever be another world war?
Click to expand...

I would hope that with modern technology it would be hard for the people to be that gullible to support another war like that.But all it would take is a bunch of politicians like John McCain their mouths on the cocks of the military industrial complex to manipulate the people into supporting another war like that
 
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