Re: Do you agree or disagree with Tony Dungys's comments about gay player Michael Sam
The problem is the "just as likely". No SEC DPOTY besides him lasted past the 5th, thus I am making the claim that he was likely to go in the fifth due to two reasons:
I'd argue he's the worst prospect of all the DPOTY from the SEC in the past decade+, so it's reasonable to suggest that he'd go lower than them.
2. He wouldn't have undergone the additional scrutiny that he received as part of the media hoopla regarding him being drafted.
He'd still be:
1. Poorly sized for DE or 3-4 OLB
2. Saddled with a HORRIBLE combine (of 28 DE's he finished 22nd, last, last, 19th, and second to last in the combine events).
3. Lacklust Senior Bowl
4. One good year
5. Sporadic production; he failed to register a sack in 8 of his 14 games. Less than 4 tackles in 8 of 14 games. Tackle for Loss was the only consistent stat he had, recording one in 9 of his 14 games.
None of that I point out above is "unusual scrutiny". That's standard scrutiny that any team would do on a draft pick. That's BASIC stuff.
I'd say the likelihood of him going in the 5th round is about as good as him going undrafted...unlikely but possible. Your only argument is primarily pointing at past SEC DPOTY, but a STRONG case can be made that he's far inferior of a prospect than any of those that came before him so there's no reason to assume he'd be a 5th rounder simply because others before him had been drafted high.
While I don't think it's preposterous, I do think it's unlikely he'd slip out of the draft all together. However, I think him being drafted in the 5th would've been relatively as unlikely. Even if we go by your logic, which seems to be solely focused on past SEC DPOTY's draft status, Sam is arguably a worse prospect than those that came before him so it'd make sense that he wouldn't go as high as they did...thus not prior to the 6th.
The bears drafted a guy in the 4th based entirely on college production. His combine was atrocious for his position, but his production made him worth a pick that high. (Michael Sam actually ran faster than Ka'Deem Carey at the combine and Carey's a much smaller running back).
You're seriously going to try to compare the two?
Carey did have a bad 40 time compared to his peers, being similar to Sam in how low he was within his group. However, as you continue to go across the line of combine measurements he is different than Sam. He's middle of the pack in the bench and 3 cone, and was in the bottom third (but clearly not at the bottom) of the rest. That's distinctly different than Sam, who was continually last or second to last in multiple measurements.
Second, that whole "inconsistent" and "lack of track record" thing I keep pointing out with Sam isn't there for Ka'Deem Carey.
First track record. Carey had two years as a feature back and eclipsed 1850 yards and 19 TD's BOTH years, showing a track record of success. He averaged over 4.5 yards a carry every year in college. He also showed himself a capable pass catcher out of the backfield, catching 25+ passes each starting year and averaging at least over 6.7 yards per reception. Which as you know is a big scheme fit for a backup to Matt Forte. He led the nation two years ago and was 3rd last year in terms of yardage and in the top 10 for total touch downs both years. Unlike Sam this was a guy who had a track record, as opposed to one year, of being a stand out player.
Second, consistency. Both in a general sense and in terms of giving you BIG performances on top of it. Carey eclipsed 100 yards in every game in 2013 (actually, he had 119 or more in every game). He scored Touchdowns in 10 of his 12 games. He recorded a reception in 8 of his 12. In 2012 he eclipsed 100 yards in 10 of his 13 games, recorded a TD in EVERY game, and a reception in every game. In 2013 6 of his 12 games had over 150 yards (with one at 149) and he had 6 multi-TD games. In 2012 he had 5 games over 150 yards of rushing (with one at 147) and 5 multi-TD games.
To say that the two things were equally likely is practically absurd.
To compare Sam to Ka'Deem Carey is practically absurd. If Sam had a "Great" college career as you suggested then Ka'Deem had an all word college career. Ka'Deem was better across the board in his combine performance, is relatively prototypical in size for his position, has multiple years of excellence in college, and has been extremely consistent in his production throughout both his starting years.
Finally...
No SEC DPOTY has fallen lower than the fifth over the last decade, but this guy.... he's likely to slip out of the draft entirely."
I'm not saying he's
LIKELY to slip out of the draft entirely. On the contrary, I've said repeatedly I DON'T think it'd be unlikely. I'm suggesting that it would be unlikely, and him being drafted in the 5th would
ALSO be unlikely. I'm suggesting both are POSSIBLE, and roughly equally possible in occurring. As I've said, I think the reasonable answer without him coming out would've been 6th or 7th round, with a slight chance of going late in the 5th if a team fell in love or a priority UDFA signed after the draft if things just didn't fit right at the tail end of the draft.
I just don't see it nearly as unplausible as you to suggest that it's no less possible that he'd go undrafted than he'd go in the 5th without the gay thing coming out. There ONLY argument you seem to have for him going in the 5th is a fallacious call to history that basically ignores the context of where Sam fits within that history.
