View Poll Results: for democratic voters

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  • Hillary Clinton

    14 30.43%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    32 69.57%
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Thread: For Democratic voters

  1. #31
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Each has their own opinion. When I look at the favorable/unfavorable ratings of each candidate among independents, Hillary is the only one with an unfavorable rating in the high 40's. Also I said I used the term easiest in a very loosely manner and that any Democratic nominee would be the favorite. Hillary will probably lose the independent vote if her favorables/unfavorables remain constant with what they are today. But she can afford to lose the independent vote as long as it isn't by a whole bunch. The bigger Democratic base allows her to do so. Using Gallup's June 8th figures the Democrat Party makes up 28% of the electorate whereas the Republicans have only 24%. So if those figures were to remain constant which they will not, they are dynamic, Hillary would have 4 points to play with.

    This is not going into the electoral college which is a whole another ball of wax.
    Instead of depending on what percentage of the electorate belongs to which party, you'd be better served by checking what groups voted for whom. For instance, who would whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Women, millenials, LGBT's, and so on vote for...because everyone belongs to at least one of those groups...

    ...and there is only one major group that the GOP has can count on for a majority: whites (and especially older white men). The GOP cognoscenti know this - why do you think they're pushing voter ID laws so much even when they know that there's precisely zero evidence of widespread voter fraud?
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  2. #32
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Do some reading on the Obama campaign "machine". He innovated in a number of ways, and his get out the vote works where effective like nothing seen before. Better and best are two different things, and gaining any edge, even a small one can matter(ask Bush).



    I expect to see those numbers change somewhat as we get into early 2016. When there are more clear cut people to compare against, I think that is when those numbers will firm up.



    2016 is an uphill battle for republicans. Demographics works against them. They have to define who they are going forward. They have to find a way, or at least a candidate, who can appeal to those groups republican typically lose. They do not have to win those groups, but they need more of them. And they need to do those things in the states you mention. It is certainly doable, but I would not bet money them being successful.

    Always a pleasure to chat with you. You do good post.
    Exactly, all the numbers I cite are dynamic and all will change from day to day. What you say about a name is true. Back in December of 2011 and January of 2012, Mr. Generic Republican Presidential Candidate was always beating President Obama. But once a name replaced Mr. Generic Republican Presidential Candidate President Obama surged ahead and stayed there.

    But I have always been of the mind, one election at a time and 2014 needs to be in the books before any serious look at 2016. What happens in November of this year will effect what happens in 2016, there is no way around that.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  3. #33
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    Very good analysis. As another poster pointed out, too many people think Clinton is the only viable candidate the Dems have for 2016. The truth is they have several more, some of whom I believe are far more viable than Clinton is

    However, I will admit I like Warren a lot.
    Personally I like Schweitzer, but I do not think he has much of a chance to win the nomination. But one can always dream. Right now I do not think it matters that much whom the nominee is, whomever is the nominee will definitely be the favorite. That is unless the right candidate comes along as Eisenhower did in 1952 to put a stop to 5 straight presidential Democratic election victories. Without IKE, I am pretty sure Stevenson would have beaten Senator Taft to continue the Democratic roll.

    I really do not see any Republican candidate on the horizon as of yet who can win in 2016. I thought the pre-bridgegate Christie could be than candidate. But unlike most, I am not looking at the popular vote, but at the electoral college. It is going to be pretty darn difficult for a Republican in 2016 to amass 270 electoral votes. Not impossible, but at this point in time, not probable either.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  4. #34
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Personally I like Schweitzer, but I do not think he has much of a chance to win the nomination. But one can always dream. Right now I do not think it matters that much whom the nominee is, whomever is the nominee will definitely be the favorite. That is unless the right candidate comes along as Eisenhower did in 1952 to put a stop to 5 straight presidential Democratic election victories. Without IKE, I am pretty sure Stevenson would have beaten Senator Taft to continue the Democratic roll.

    I really do not see any Republican candidate on the horizon as of yet who can win in 2016. I thought the pre-bridgegate Christie could be than candidate. But unlike most, I am not looking at the popular vote, but at the electoral college. It is going to be pretty darn difficult for a Republican in 2016 to amass 270 electoral votes. Not impossible, but at this point in time, not probable either.
    I can see why, but you really should consider Warren. She's one of the few possible candidates in either party who is willing to take on the moneyed interests (ie Wall St.) Maybe the only one.
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  5. #35
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Glen Contrarian View Post
    Instead of depending on what percentage of the electorate belongs to which party, you'd be better served by checking what groups voted for whom. For instance, who would whites, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Women, millenials, LGBT's, and so on vote for...because everyone belongs to at least one of those groups...

    ...and there is only one major group that the GOP has can count on for a majority: whites (and especially older white men). The GOP cognoscenti know this - why do you think they're pushing voter ID laws so much even when they know that there's precisely zero evidence of widespread voter fraud?
    No, I find it easier to go with party affiliation. the demographics then take care of themselves. I call it my KISS principal. I know as of 8 June 2014, that 28% of the electorate identify with the Democratic Party, 24% with the Republican Party and 46% proclaim they are independents. Then I can break down the independents, 16% lean towards the Democratic party and 20% toward the Republican Party with 10% in what I call pure independents who profess no leaning. The demographics are taken care of as they are the ones who make up the percentages of each party.

    Now these are dynamic and change all the time. I haven't seen the figures for July yet as Gallup hasn't released them. But over the last few years here is a sample.

    Year…Dem…Rep…Ind…Ind.Lean.Dem….Ind.Lean.Rep…..True .Ind
    2005…34……33……30………..14…………………....8…………………8
    2010…32……33…..34………..12……………………15…………………7
    2011…30……27…..42………..18……………………15…………………9
    2012…35……30…..33………..16……………………12…………………5
    2013…30……24….44………..14…………………..18………………..13
    2014…28……24….46………..16…………………..20………………..10…..As of June 8 2014
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  6. #36
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    I can see why, but you really should consider Warren. She's one of the few possible candidates in either party who is willing to take on the moneyed interests (ie Wall St.) Maybe the only one.
    I will wait to see how the campaign donations goes. Wall Street donated heavily to Obama over McCain but switched their allegiance to Romney in 2012.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  7. #37
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Kobie View Post
    I have a feeling our reasons are different.
    Well if I had to chose between Warren and Hillary I would chose Warren.....Thank God I don't have to make that choice.
    "God Bless Our Troops in Harms Way."

  8. #38
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    No, I find it easier to go with party affiliation. the demographics then take care of themselves. I call it my KISS principal. I know as of 8 June 2014, that 28% of the electorate identify with the Democratic Party, 24% with the Republican Party and 46% proclaim they are independents. Then I can break down the independents, 16% lean towards the Democratic party and 20% toward the Republican Party with 10% in what I call pure independents who profess no leaning. The demographics are taken care of as they are the ones who make up the percentages of each party.

    Now these are dynamic and change all the time. I haven't seen the figures for July yet as Gallup hasn't released them. But over the last few years here is a sample.

    Year…Dem…Rep…Ind…Ind.Lean.Dem….Ind.Lean.Rep…..True .Ind
    2005…34……33……30………..14…………………....8…………………8
    2010…32……33…..34………..12……………………15…………………7
    2011…30……27…..42………..18……………………15…………………9
    2012…35……30…..33………..16……………………12…………………5
    2013…30……24….44………..14…………………..18………………..13
    2014…28……24….46………..16…………………..20………………..10…..As of June 8 2014
    And that provides for women voters how? Because they broke for Obama by something like 10 points versus Romney...and then when it's Hillary, the break might be even wider. That's something that mere party affiliation can't account for, especially since what a woman does in a voting booth may be very different from what their husbands and family and friends might hear.
    To do evil, a human being must first of all believe that what hes doing is good" - Solzhenitsyn

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  9. #39
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Navy Pride View Post
    Well if I had to chose between Warren and Hillary I would chose Warren.....Thank God I don't have to make that choice.
    If you knew anything about Warren you wouldn't say that NP....the only reason you would vote for Warren is because of the hatred you have towards Hilary because she was married to Bill.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

  10. #40
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    Re: For Democratic voters

    Quote Originally Posted by Navy Pride View Post
    Well if I had to chose between Warren and Hillary I would chose Warren.....Thank God I don't have to make that choice.
    If you knew anything about Warren you wouldn't say that NP....the only reason you would vote for Warren is because of the hatred you have towards Hilary because she was married to Bill.
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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