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Is Rick Perry a Legitimate Contender For 2016?

Is Rick Perry serious choice and would you vote for him

  • Total voters
    58
He could be if he's better prepared this time. Last time seemed kind of seat of his pants. Like Fred Thompson in '08. Could've been a contender, but didn't seriously prepare for it.
 
ChezC3 said:
Is he a serious choice and would you vote for him?
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No, I don't think he's a serious candidate and no, I would never vote for him...

...but PLEASE let him run! Oh, yes, I hope that he and Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz are all up there during the GOP presidential debates! Oh, and Michelle Bachmann, too!
 
He failed badly the first time because of his own flaws and defects. Why would a rerun be any different?
 
He is indeed a legitimate contender. He's a governor of a large state. He has governing experience and has dealt with, is dealing with a lot of the issues the federal government is going to be dealing with during the next presidential term.

Would I vote for him? Perhaps. Depends upon what he has to say, how he manages his campaign and who he is running against.
 
CRUE CAB said:
Then who is a better RNC candidate?
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icon_bush_2016.jpg

He can get the independent vote.
 
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haymarket said:
He failed badly the first time because of his own flaws and defects. Why would a rerun be any different?
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A few presidents have lost in the primaries only to return the next time to take the primaries.
 
PeteEU said:
Well there are the obvious. He has big links to Bush Jr. He has big links to Tom De Lay and gerrymandering of districts. His record in Texas is a mirage and when on a national scale, that record will be crushed with facts and his hypocritical ways will be exposed. Most people dont know who he really is and when they get to see him, the way he acts, and the inconsistencies in his record.. well. I mean I can already see one ad running where you have the face of Rick Perry complaining that Texas is not getting enough federal help to fight wild fires, and clip over to the Texas budget where they cut funding of... fighting wildfires.

Rick Perry is a disaster waiting to happen. Not even sure he could win a primary run due to the radical Tea Party freaks. He would have to go to the extreme right, and then pivot back big time to nearer the center to even have a chance. The Independents would run away screaming, and even moderate Republicans.

Could you imagine him running on an anti-abortion, anti-gay, pro more gun platform?

And then there is of course the rumor that has been floating around for decades.. that he is in fact gay, which aint a problem for the left per say, but on the right?
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Perry and Bush would obviously know many of the same folks, but they aren't friends. Those Perry is close to include John Sharp. If you know who he is, then you can guess who others close to Perry are.

I've never heard of a Perry connection to Tom DeLay. How is he connected to the DeLay scandal? How did Perry conspire to violate election law with DeLay? And by the way, the original court judgment against DeLay was overturned, and he was acquitted.

Burntorange.com was the purveyor of the Perry-is-gay rumor. It didn't have legs then, and considering that Perry's been a Presidential candidate before, I don't think it has legs now.

The George W. Bush-Rick Perry Rivalry: Texas Tension or Cowboy Lore? - ABC News
 
Μολὼν λαβέ;1063516075 said:
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He can get the independent vote.
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There's one big problem for this independent regarding Jeb - he's the governor of that nuthouse state where no matter how simple you make the ballot folks still can't figure out how to vote.
 
ChezC3 said:
Yeah, you know, I'm all but positive the GOP is gonna stick another Estab candidate in there. So I'm gauging opinions and taking note on sentiment.
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There isn't much in the Republican field at this point in time that I would seriously consider voting for. I was a big Christie fan before bridgegate hit, but that has definitely soiled him. But it is very early and whom we talk about is mostly media driven.

On the Democratic side, I had discarded Hillary as someone I would vote for quite a long time ago. But her little speech about Bill Clinton continuing to reach out to Republicans has grabbed my attention:

Hillary Trumpets Husband's Bipartisan Record: 'Bill Never Stopped Reaching Out To Them'

When the time comes witch will probably be early 2016 and if Hillary is in the hunt, I will reassess her then. Regardless of politics and ideology, a president willing to reach out across the aisle is something I think this country needs. But as of today, I am keeping an eye on Schweitzer of Montana. But I am a whole lot more interested in November of 2014 than 2016 as I think the results of November this year will have direct bearing on 2016.
 
Maybe Christie would be a good Vice President, but I'm not sure he has the gravitas to be President.
 
Μολὼν λαβέ;1063516075 said:
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He can get the independent vote.
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Jeb Bush is on the positive side of the independent voter favorability ratings with a 35% favor, 32% unfavorable rating. Although he is under water when it comes to all voters 32% to 37%. surprisingly it is not the Democrats that bring him way down, it is the Republicans in which only 55% view him favorably.
 
shrubnose said:
Right now I'd say Chris Christie looks pretty good.
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Before bridgegate, Christie was the only Republican that looked like he actually could win in 2016. But I am a numbers guy and not too hot ideology.
 
Perotista said:
There isn't much in the Republican field at this point in time that I would seriously consider voting for. I was a big Christie fan before bridgegate hit, but that has definitely soiled him. But it is very early and whom we talk about is mostly media driven.

On the Democratic side, I had discarded Hillary as someone I would vote for quite a long time ago. But her little speech about Bill Clinton continuing to reach out to Republicans has grabbed my attention:

Hillary Trumpets Husband's Bipartisan Record: 'Bill Never Stopped Reaching Out To Them'

When the time comes witch will probably be early 2016 and if Hillary is in the hunt, I will reassess her then. Regardless of politics and ideology, a president willing to reach out across the aisle is something I think this country needs. But as of today, I am keeping an eye on Schweitzer of Montana. But I am a whole lot more interested in November of 2014 than 2016 as I think the results of November this year will have direct bearing on 2016.
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New Jersey has the worst gun laws in the country and Christie hasn't done squat to change it. I really don't see the draw.

HRC could possibly be the single worst choice for President in the history of these United States. Especially coming in after 8 years of Obama.


I think 2014 is gonna be a repeat of 2010. A GOP revival. I don't see a GOP take over of the Senate (not saying they won't or can't, but I'm letting my cynical side out to stretch its legs for the moment) but I do see them evening out.
 
Perotista said:
Before bridgegate, Christie was the only Republican that looked like he actually could win in 2016. But I am a numbers guy and not too hot ideology.
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Not that I don't agree with him, but he pissed off the anti gun groups the other day.
 
nota bene said:
Perry and Bush would obviously know many of the same folks, but they aren't friends.
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Never said they were. But Rick Perry took over from Bush, and was LT. Governor and chosen successor... you dont have to be friends for that. But they did work very close together for years.

I've never heard of a Perry connection to Tom DeLay. How is he connected to the DeLay scandal? How did Perry conspire to violate election law with DeLay?
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err.. okay. Maybe you should read up on it then.. even I know that he and Rick Perry were behind the redistricting aka gerrymandering of Texas so that the GOP will never lose power again.

And by the way, the original court judgment against DeLay was overturned, and he was acquitted.
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That is another DeLay scandal.. he has had a few that criminal. And it was a Texas court.. so pft. It has been appealed I believe to a non Texas court. He is and always has been corrupt.

Burntorange.com was the purveyor of the Perry-is-gay rumor. It didn't have legs then, and considering that Perry's been a Presidential candidate before, I don't think it has legs now.
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Yea yea, just as all the other GOP gay rumors for various candidates were never "serious", until they admitted it...
 
ChezC3 said:
New Jersey has the worst gun laws in the country and Christie hasn't done squat to change it. I really don't see the draw.

HRC could possibly be the single worst choice for President in the history of these United States. Especially coming in after 8 years of Obama.


I think 2014 is gonna be a repeat of 2010. A GOP revival. I don't see a GOP take over of the Senate (not saying they won't or can't, but I'm letting my cynical side out to stretch its legs for the moment) but I do see them evening out.
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Some of the indicators are all wrong for another 2010 although perhaps slowly moving that way. Here they are as of yesterday:

What are the chances of another 2010 wave election happening in November? Here are the five criteria that must be in place. Also you compare today with 2012 and 2010.

1. President Obama’s approval rating of below 45%: Todays rating: 41.1. This indicator says the Republicans should make some impressive gains.
2012 approval rating 51%
2010 approval rating 44%

2. ACA gap of 15 points in the against/oppose side over the favor/pro ACA side: Today the gap is 13.8. Not the 15 point target, but probably close enough for the Democrats to be pulling their out their hair.
2012 gap 5 points
2010 gap 15 points

3. Generic congressional poll, the Republicans must have a lead over the Democrats of 5 points or better: Today the Democrats lead the Republicans by a 42-40 margin, 2 points. This indicators give the Democrats a slight advantage where they may pick up a few seats, 4 or 5 possible.
2012 generic Democrats 48% Republicans 46%
2010 generic Democrats 41% Republicans 51%

4. Party Favorability/unfavorability, the Democrats must be seen in a worst light than the Republicans. But today with all voters the Republicans have a 34% favorable rating vs a 53% unfavorable. The Democrats have a 37% favorable/51% unfavorable which seems to tilt the November election slightly in the Democrats favor.
2012 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 47/44 Republican 40/47
2010 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 39/49 Republican 44/44

5. Party affiliation/identification Republicans must have a 5 point lead as they did in 2010 when counting those who identify with each party plus those independents which lean towards each party: Today the two parties are even at 44% each.

Identify as Democrats 28%
Independents lean Democrat 16% Total 44%
Identify as Republicans 24%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 44%

2012 party identification
Identify as Democrats 33%
Independents lean Democrat 15% Total 48%
Identify as Republicans 28%
Independents lean Republican 12% Total 40%


2010 party identification
Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 13% Total 42%
Identify as Republicans 29%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 49%


Conclusion: The Republicans should be dancing in the aisles with the president’s approval rating and the ACA gap and hopeful that party affiliation is moving their way. But the generic congressional poll sides slightly with the Democrats along with the party favorability polls. Putting all five indicators together it seems more of a status quo election will happen in November where the Democrats gain a few seats in the house and the Republicans gain in the senate. But no big shift one way or the other.
 
CRUE CAB said:
Not that I don't agree with him, but he pissed off the anti gun groups the other day.
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At this point in time, I do not think Christie deserves serous consideration. But there is a long time to go and no one knows what will happen between now and then.
 
clownboy said:
A few presidents have lost in the primaries only to return the next time to take the primaries.
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Yes that is true. So you could be correct. But unless Perry got a whole lot better - those same flaws in his campaigning and messaging will still be there. I guess time will tell.
 
ChezC3 said:
The atmosphere ahead of the 2008 election which pretty much guaranteed a Dem win is so much more prevalent now, and it's so much more sooner in its happening.

Essentially the 2016 election is the GOP's to lose. They just have to put a halfway reasonable candidate in the mix and run a better than average campaign.

I would normally be befuddled by your opinion, but if this administration has shown me anything it is that Dem supporters denial is only rivaled by their delusions.

Hillary is damaged goods and if she jumps into the fray she will get the Dem nom.

and oh what fun we will have when she does...
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Obama should have been a one termer but that part in bold is important. The GOP probably can't put up a candidate that isn't in right field. If you can't win with a Rhino pretending to be a winger, what chance does a real right winger have? Obama moderates are not going to move that far to the right. Only GOP hope is suppress the vote.

The GOP needs to run someone like Huntsman. He could stomp Hillary. I say that as a Hillary voter, and I am pretty sure the GOP won't move to the center....
 
Perotista said:
Some of the indicators are all wrong for another 2010 although perhaps slowly moving that way. Here they are as of yesterday:

What are the chances of another 2010 wave election happening in November? Here are the five criteria that must be in place. Also you compare today with 2012 and 2010.

1. President Obama’s approval rating of below 45%: Todays rating: 41.1. This indicator says the Republicans should make some impressive gains.
2012 approval rating 51%
2010 approval rating 44%

2. ACA gap of 15 points in the against/oppose side over the favor/pro ACA side: Today the gap is 13.8. Not the 15 point target, but probably close enough for the Democrats to be pulling their out their hair.
2012 gap 5 points
2010 gap 15 points

3. Generic congressional poll, the Republicans must have a lead over the Democrats of 5 points or better: Today the Democrats lead the Republicans by a 42-40 margin, 2 points. This indicators give the Democrats a slight advantage where they may pick up a few seats, 4 or 5 possible.
2012 generic Democrats 48% Republicans 46%
2010 generic Democrats 41% Republicans 51%

4. Party Favorability/unfavorability, the Democrats must be seen in a worst light than the Republicans. But today with all voters the Republicans have a 34% favorable rating vs a 53% unfavorable. The Democrats have a 37% favorable/51% unfavorable which seems to tilt the November election slightly in the Democrats favor.
2012 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 47/44 Republican 40/47
2010 favorability/unfavorability Democrat 39/49 Republican 44/44

5. Party affiliation/identification Republicans must have a 5 point lead as they did in 2010 when counting those who identify with each party plus those independents which lean towards each party: Today the two parties are even at 44% each.

Identify as Democrats 28%
Independents lean Democrat 16% Total 44%
Identify as Republicans 24%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 44%

2012 party identification
Identify as Democrats 33%
Independents lean Democrat 15% Total 48%
Identify as Republicans 28%
Independents lean Republican 12% Total 40%


2010 party identification
Identify as Democrats 29%
Independents lean Democrat 13% Total 42%
Identify as Republicans 29%
Independents lean Republican 20% Total 49%


Conclusion: The Republicans should be dancing in the aisles with the president’s approval rating and the ACA gap and hopeful that party affiliation is moving their way. But the generic congressional poll sides slightly with the Democrats along with the party favorability polls. Putting all five indicators together it seems more of a status quo election will happen in November where the Democrats gain a few seats in the house and the Republicans gain in the senate. But no big shift one way or the other.
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I've always been one to follow my gut, it hasn't failed me thus far but this is a very informative post, thanks for sharing.
 
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