View Poll Results: Do you own gold as an investment or hedge against falling dollar.

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  • Yes physical gold (Jewelry,coins,Bullion)

    6 24.00%
  • Yes in an IRA or GLD

    0 0%
  • Yes, but not due to fear of collapse

    4 16.00%
  • No

    15 60.00%
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Thread: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

  1. #41
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by the_recruit View Post



    . .
    ???????????????????
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  2. #42
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    ???????????????????
    There's mountains of research that shows that trying to time the market by buying/selling in sync with the natural market fluctuations doesn't work. Success in timing the market is statistically equivalent to (or even worse than) random chance. You are not Warren Buffet. You are not Peter Lynch. With near certainty you would do better in the long run to buy and hold.

    That's not even controversial in the personal finance world these days. Investing is about buying an asset and sitting on it long term. It's not about picking the hot stock, it's about asset allocation. It's about ignoring the up/down fluctuations. That's just noise. You make money by taking advantage of the long term trend that emerges in spite of the noise. Those that try to time the noise almost always do worse in the long run. And that's even if you opt for professional management. The costs of active management almost always negate the gains compared to passive indexing.

  3. #43
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by the_recruit View Post
    There's mountains of research that shows that trying to time the market by buying/selling in sync with the natural market fluctuations doesn't work. Success in timing the market is statistically equivalent to (or even worse than) random chance. You are not Warren Buffet. You are not Peter Lynch. With near certainty you would do better in the long run to buy and hold.

    That's not even controversial in the personal finance world these days. Investing is about buying an asset and sitting on it long term. It's not about picking the hot stock, it's about asset allocation. It's about ignoring the up/down fluctuations. That's just noise. You make money by taking advantage of the long term trend that emerges in spite of the noise. Those that try to time the noise almost always do worse in the long run. And that's even if you opt for professional management. The costs of active management almost always negate the gains compared to passive indexing.
    That is part of it yes asset allocation. Notice I didn't say timing the market I said buy low sell high. There is no specific order you do that in. There several ways to buy and sell, market timing just one of those, dollar cost averaging is another. Buying and holding for long term is a good play IF you get a good deal. Buying at low points in market trends amplifies the effect over the long term. Buying at high points lessens your gains over the long term. Selling off in high trends locks in profits. You don't need to time the market you just need to know if you are on the high side or low side very tops or bottoms matter little. I trade for part of my income and that is part of my multi legged income strategy along with running a logistics business, real estate investments, and other investments. Research also shows there are calendar time to buy and sell various futures and stocks. Research also shows most traders are out of the market in a year. That same research show the reason they are out within a year is either lack of discipline, not enough resource to start with or lack of knowledge of the market they are attempting to trade. Its a matter of knowing the fields you are trading and or investing in if you are trading or investing. Investing simply denotes a longer term strategy. A good strategy for accumulating wealth will encompass long to medium term investing and short term trading in a mixture and exposure appropriate to your goals and risk tolerance. There is also NO one way that is successful for all people, everyone is different and has different risk tolerances, accumulated assets, cash holdings ect.. What works for me may not work necessarily with you.

    You are right I am NOT Warren Buffet and most certainly not as brilliant as Peter Lynch I only am right 33% of the time on which way the market is going to go, I have however very impressive 5% monthly gains which equates to 60% yearly gains. How is it I do that with such a crappy prognostication rate? Discipline. That's it. Timing the market perfectly is pretty much impossible, timing it some of the time is inevitable a matter of statistics. Taking advantage of market movement is VERY possible and to be blunt probable. Don't catch the waves, catch the tide.
    Semper Fidelis, Semper Liber.
    I spit at lots of people through my computer screen. Not only does it "teach them a lesson" but it keeps the screen clean and shiny.
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  4. #44
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by votemout View Post
    Private poll

    Do you own Gold as a hedge against a falling dollar?
    I don't see gold as a short term investment right now. It's been peaking for the last several years, though it's good to have some as part of your portfolio, if you've got enough funds to allocate. I don't think it's necessary to physically own it either, unless you just like the feel of coin or bullion. Silver may actually be a better precious metal to own, since it's less sensitive to larger fluctuations.

    I don't believe it's a very good hedge against the dollar. If US currency takes any significant dump, PM's probably won't fair much better in that financial climate. This is not the 70's-80's style of market for rising interest rates anymore.
    Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."

  5. #45
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    I don't keep physical gold. Its pointless to have for emergency purpose unless that emergency in a foreign country and the emergency is personal. The other products you listed are much better to have, also NON computerized machine tools and the like and knowledge of machining welding metal working and the like. Good working knowledge of fractioning and distilling chemicals is also valuable. Farming and that skillset. If its for investing or hedging I use ETF's and the exchanges or brokerage firms.

    well notice i said some, gold and silver can be use as a barter tool, if someone i am trying to make an an exchange with ,does not want any of the others items i have....metals are universal, he can take it from me, and exchange with another person for something.

    skills are a very useful thing to have also

  6. #46
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    That is part of it yes asset allocation. Notice I didn't say timing the market I said buy low sell high.
    That's what I was talking about. You responded to me remember.

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    There is no specific order you do that in. There several ways to buy and sell, market timing just one of those, dollar cost averaging is another.
    Dollar cost averaging is a strategy for getting a big lump sum into an investment without risking a sudden loss to short term volatility. It really has nothing to do with market timing vs buy and hold.

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    Buying and holding for long term is a good play IF you get a good deal. Buying at low points in market trends amplifies the effect over the long term. Buying at high points lessens your gains over the long term. Selling off in high trends locks in profits. You don't need to time the market you just need to know if you are on the high side or low side very tops or bottoms matter little.
    This is timing the market and statistically it's a loser's game. If you have funds to invest, start investing it now and hold until you retire. Waiting till you think the market is at a low point or selling it before then to "lock in profit" is a rookie mistake. It's exactly the kind of unwise investing behavior I'm talking about.

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    I trade for part of my income and that is part of my multi legged income strategy along with running a logistics business, real estate investments, and other investments. Research also shows there are calendar time to buy and sell various futures and stocks. Research also shows most traders are out of the market in a year. That same research show the reason they are out within a year is either lack of discipline, not enough resource to start with or lack of knowledge of the market they are attempting to trade. Its a matter of knowing the fields you are trading and or investing in if you are trading or investing. Investing simply denotes a longer term strategy.
    Day trading isn't investing as far as I'm concerned. What you're doing is akin to trying to beat the house at a Casino. Statistically, you are not going to come out ahead. It's not about "lack of discipline".

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    A good strategy for accumulating wealth will encompass long to medium term investing and short term trading in a mixture and exposure appropriate to your goals and risk tolerance.
    Right. If your goal is to earn as much as possible over your lifetime, then short term trading is a bad idea. It's a matter of simple statistics. If your goal is to likely earn less money over the course of your lifetime, then short term trading is for you. Another good stategy for this goal is playing roulette at your local Casino.

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    There is also NO one way that is successful for all people, everyone is different and has different risk tolerances, accumulated assets, cash holdings ect.. What works for me may not work necessarily with you.
    Of course. This is where asset allocation and rebalancing your portfolio as you age comes in.

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateMk1 View Post
    You are right I am NOT Warren Buffet and most certainly not as brilliant as Peter Lynch I only am right 33% of the time on which way the market is going to go, I have however very impressive 5% monthly gains which equates to 60% yearly gains. How is it I do that with such a crappy prognostication rate? Discipline. That's it. Timing the market perfectly is pretty much impossible, timing it some of the time is inevitable a matter of statistics. Taking advantage of market movement is VERY possible and to be blunt probable. Don't catch the waves, catch the tide.
    Hahaha. 60% annual returns! You're right, your'e not Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch - you're way, WAY better than they ever were! lol.

    You're delusional if you think that's the kind of return you maintain.

    Sucker born every minute....

  7. #47
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    Quote Originally Posted by the_recruit View Post
    That's what I was talking about. You responded to me remember.



    Dollar cost averaging is a strategy for getting a big lump sum into an investment without risking a sudden loss to short term volatility. It really has nothing to do with market timing vs buy and hold.



    This is timing the market and statistically it's a loser's game. If you have funds to invest, start investing it now and hold until you retire. Waiting till you think the market is at a low point or selling it before then to "lock in profit" is a rookie mistake. It's exactly the kind of unwise investing behavior I'm talking about.



    Day trading isn't investing as far as I'm concerned. What you're doing is akin to trying to beat the house at a Casino. Statistically, you are not going to come out ahead. It's not about "lack of discipline".



    Right. If your goal is to earn as much as possible over your lifetime, then short term trading is a bad idea. It's a matter of simple statistics. If your goal is to likely earn less money over the course of your lifetime, then short term trading is for you. Another good stategy for this goal is playing roulette at your local Casino.



    Of course. This is where asset allocation and rebalancing your portfolio as you age comes in.



    Hahaha. 60% annual returns! You're right, your'e not Warren Buffet or Peter Lynch - you're way, WAY better than they ever were! lol.

    You're delusional if you think that's the kind of return you maintain.

    Sucker born every minute....
    Dollar cost averaging is a strategy for getting a big lump sum into an investment without risking a sudden loss to short term volatility. It really has nothing to do with market timing vs buy and hold.
    Here is the dollar cost averaging definition for you.
    Definition of 'Dollar-Cost Averaging - DCA'


    The technique of buying a fixed dollar amount of a particular investment on a regular schedule, regardless of the share price. More shares are purchased when prices are low, and fewer shares are bought when prices are high.

    Also referred to as a "constant dollar plan."




    Investopedia explains 'Dollar-Cost Averaging - DCA'


    Eventually, the average cost per share of the security will become smaller and smaller. Dollar-cost averaging lessens the risk of investing a large amount in a single investment at the wrong time.

    For example, you decide to purchase $100 worth of XYZ each month for three months. In January, XYZ is worth $33, so you buy three shares. In February, XYZ is worth $25, so you buy four additional shares. Finally, in March, XYZ is worth $20, so you buy five shares. In total, you purchased 12 shares for an average price of approximately $25 each.
    Dollar cost averaging is a method of investing over a long period of time and backdoor timing the market though statistics. You can also do it for large sums though it takes time. Most people just take a modest sum out of their paychecks over a very long term and invest in some sort of fund that way.

    You obviously have your own ideas on investing. If you are comfortable with them why should you change? Me? I am quite comfortable day trading on occasion and utilizing the skills I have honed for better overall returns on my long term investments. If you wish to pish pash my methods that's your prerogative. The only thing that counts for me in the end is whether or not I have gains for my efforts. I don't day trade as much as I used to as that requires a fair bit of time and effort to be successful at it consistently. It something that I do mainly now to optimize my entry into a medium term position that's going to take 30 days or more to realize, or to get the best buy I can at the time I acquire more shares of a long term held investment instrument. I make more money now as a partner with an investment group that provides invoice factoring services to various industries such as the one I have a business in, which is logistics. Very little work and very little risk and very very handsome returns that are very predictable. It has grown enough to become a major part of my current income portfolio. 5% monthly returns are very difficult to beat. Its a very nice business in that it is a win win win proposition all the way around. We make a nice return of 5% monthly, the invoice seller get their money now and increases their cash flow for a modest fee along with billing and collections service, the invoice recipient gets to float the invoice for 30 days or more and accumulate the collective interest. Everybody wins, the best kind of business deal.

    I should clarify my annual 60% returns. That's on an exposed position. IE If I make a trade and say buy or sell 1000 dollars of whatever and make a 100 dollars profit when I complete the transaction within the month. That's 10% there. This is wash rinse and repeat except exposing the initial investment plus the gains. Over a period of a year with the inevitable losses, it works out to about a 60% gain annualized. So basically I start with $1000 and end up with $1600. So I made 60% What I neglected to point out and I should, have was the trade only utilizes a maximum of 2% of the trading account on any giving number of positions. I normally keep about $150,000 in a trading account so my maximum initial exposure is 2% of that or 3000 dollars. Which means I can only put on any number of trades that are less than the total of 3000 dollars. So my 60% returns will net me $1800. Or 1.2% overall gains not counting accumulated interest on the account. Sorry about the confusion. I just like looking at it from the exposed position perceptive.
    Semper Fidelis, Semper Liber.
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    Stolen fair and square from the Capt. Courtesey himself.

  8. #48
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    Re: Do you own Gold as a an investment or hedge?

    I bought some Krugerands when they were at $100 back in the 70's. sold them when I needed money and had a little profit. Bought a couple golden eagles for 300 when gold was going for three hundred. Still got one, gave one as a present. A few years ago I bought some gold certificates (about 30 thousand worth) when gold was going for around $600. Yep, should a sold when It peaked. but when one Ira I have goes down, gold goes up, and vice versa so I guess it's ok hedge but I wouldn't trust putting a whole lot of money into gold. The only real money I ever made was real estate although I'm small time. In late November 2012 I helped my son get a condo going for $220k. A year later similar condos with no upgrades went for $440k. Doubled in value like the good old days. Then interest rates went up and nothing selling in association now but nobody's selling cheap either. Nothing like real estate for a little guy but it's usually long term. It's also an investment you can live in or rent out and get deductions like depreciation etc.

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