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What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine now?

  • Fight

    Votes: 4 30.8%

  • Flee

    Votes: 1 7.7%

  • Capitulate

    Votes: 3 23.1%

  • Stick it out

    Votes: 3 23.1%

  • Other

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .
J

joko104

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Clearly, with their country invaded, their navy seized or destroyed, and chaos growing, the leader of Ukraine could declare martial law and combined with being commander of the military take any action. Assume you had total power to make all decisions, what would you do?

Fight Russia with everything you got. If so, how?

Capitulate. Realize there is no way to win and turn all of Ukraine over to Russia to spare lives, conceding all Ukraineans are again defeated and subjugated people?

Flee. Find another country as a safe haven and get your family, your friends and you and get out of there?

Stick it out. Just ride the wave however it goes?
 
I would pursue a particular battle plan and fight it out with Russia.
 
I'd clean up the government as best I could, the Russian strategy for the rest of Ukraine is going to be to try and destabilize my government at all levels by inciting protests/riots, bribing police chiefs, mayors, governors, pretty much anyone they can get their hands on in government they are going to target to try and weaken the authority in Kiev. Most importantly the judicial system needs to work fairly and openly, without an effective and honest judicial system there is no hope for anything else.

At the same time the fiscal state of the country needs to be fixed, the last President basically ran the place as his own piggy bank and flat out stole over 70 billion in government revenue which went into his personal bank account, not to mention all the oligarchs and other corrupt business owners that were given fat unneeded subsidies from the government as a form of political payout. That needs to stop as well, the wealth of Ukraine that is collected by taxes is for the people of Ukraine it needs to be invested in infrastructure, education, healthcare, etc, etc all of which will create jobs and the landscape for future growth.

Lastly get help from the outside. I'd need money from the EU and USA to help get me through his rough time and I want advisers as well, people who are experts in every possible field from judicial proceedings to police work to accounting to managing agriculture to transport experts to military trainers to ****ing everything, I mean everything. I want all of it. I want these people to come to give us their expertise and act as "watch dogs" who can report corruption and under performance within the ranks of the government. I want to sign trade agreements with the EU I want to get short term favorable trade agreements to boost my weak economy as much as possible.

That's just for starters.
 
Wiseone said:
I'd clean up the government as best I could, the Russian strategy for the rest of Ukraine is going to be to try and destabilize my government at all levels by inciting protests/riots, bribing police chiefs, mayors, governors, pretty much anyone they can get their hands on in government they are going to target to try and weaken the http://www.debatepolitics.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1063078820authority in Kiev. Most importantly the judicial system needs to work fairly and openly, without an effective and honest judicial system there is no hope for anything else.

At the same time the fiscal state of the country needs to be fixed, the last President basically ran the place as his own piggy bank and flat out stole over 70 billion in government revenue which went into his personal bank account, not to mention all the oligarchs and other corrupt business owners that were given fat unneeded subsidies from the government as a form of political payout. That needs to stop as well, the wealth of Ukraine that is collected by taxes is for the people of Ukraine it needs to be invested in infrastructure, education, healthcare, etc, etc all of which will create jobs and the landscape for future growth.

Lastly get help from the outside. I'd need money from the EU and USA to help get me through his rough time and I want advisers as well, people who are experts in every possible field from judicial proceedings to police work to accounting to managing agriculture to transport experts to military trainers to ****ing everything, I mean everything. I want all of it. I want these people to come to give us their expertise and act as "watch dogs" who can report corruption and under performance within the ranks of the government. I want to sign trade agreements with the EU I want to get short term favorable trade agreements to boost my weak economy as much as possible.

That's just for starters.
Click to expand...

What are you going to do about the Russian military rolling in further?
 
joko104 said:
What are you going to do about the Russian military rolling in further?
Click to expand...

If they decide to do something like they did in Crimea to another part of Ukraine I believe the only option would be to fight them this time, while I wouldn't expect to win and I wouldn't expect direct military help from another country I don't think that my government could still claim to be capable of governing if we allowed ourselves to be picked apart bit by bit. It would be tough to see another scenario where I could not openly engage the Russians, the Ukrainian people who support this government don't really blame it for losing Crimea. After all their former President betrayed them to Russia and Russia invaded only days after the new government came in, they understand there wasn't much they could do but if they tried it a second time then it would demand a forceful response.
 
joko104 said:
What are you going to do about the Russian military rolling in further?
Click to expand...

All this stuff I'm talking about is long term, if Russia were to invade again then I must change my mindset and start thinking short term and act as if Russia intends to conquer the whole or most of my country and fight back accordingly. No western power will get involved in a war against Russia so they will keep their distance from me but what choice would I have? You can't think long term if there is no long term which would exactly be the problem if they invaded again.

I suppose my final act would be to order the opening of every military arsenal and spreading the weapons among the civilian population along with releasing my Army units from formal command as the situation fell apart with instructions to dissolve into smaller units as the situation required so as to give the Russians too many targets to be able to catch all them. Basically this would be a national version of the "Break Contact" battle drill with the intent of spreading military resources into so many small and uncoordinated units and partisans that the Russians couldn't possibly pick them all off, and then the bloody horrible insurgency starts.
 
I would apply for immediate membership in NATO, and request military assistance for training, and a cross-basing agreement.

Get as many NATO countries to cohabitate their bases as possible, and arrange for a NATO military exercise along the borders with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. This is on the far side of the country from Russia, and each of the countries I mentioned is also a member of NATO.

Russia could not say jack-squat, and they will quickly get the message. They are willing to take on single countries who are on their own, but there is no way they are going to risk taking on NATO.
 
Wiseone said:
All this stuff I'm talking about is long term, if Russia were to invade again then I must change my mindset and start thinking short term and act as if Russia intends to conquer the whole or most of my country and fight back accordingly. .

I suppose my final act would be to order the opening of every military arsenal and spreading the weapons among the civilian population along with releasing my Army units from formal command as the situation fell apart with instructions to dissolve into smaller units as the situation required so as to give the Russians too many targets to be able to catch all them. Basically this would be a national version of the "Break Contact" battle drill with the intent of spreading military resources into so many small and uncoordinated units and partisans that the Russians couldn't possibly pick them all off, and then the bloody horrible insurgency starts.
Click to expand...

And hopefully it wont come to that.

If Russia can be mollified -either genuinely happy with just Crimea, or afraid of crippling economic sanctions if they take more (Russia is not in the same situation that he arab oil countries were), I would study the militaries of Finland, Israel, Switzerland and Israel- especially their comprehensive and high quality reserve systems. Finland even uses alot of out dated equipment, yet compensates through superior training. I would then try to imitate them as much as possible.

Oozlefinch said:
I would apply for immediate membership in NATO, and request military assistance for training, and a cross-basing agreement.
Click to expand...
So would I. But... most NATO members view the alliance as a social club and dont want to be dragged into a eastern European conflict between people with names they cant pronounce. In short, they would accept Ukraine's application and place it under consideration- for years.
 
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I would take comfort in the words of President Obama today if I were him, putting Putin in the small place where he belongs.
He would do well to repeat them and not speak outside of those supporting him.
He should ignore unAmericans like Romney and Rumsefeld for trashing a President while he is Overseas .
 
Cryptic said:
And hopefully it wont come to that.

If Russia can be mollified -either genuinely happy with just Crimea, or afraid of crippling economic sanctions (Russia is not in the same situation that he arab oil countries were), I would study the militaries of Finland, Israel, Switzerland and Israel- especially their comprehensive and high quality reserve systems. Finland even uses alot of out dated equipment, yet compensates through superior training. I would then try to imitate them as much as possible.
Click to expand...

The problem here is that they have not been happy so far.

Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Georgia, now Ukraine. Russia does not like to admit it is not the Soviet Union, and does not have as much power over it's now independent nations on the borders. And many are now split between nostalgia to the good parts of the Soviet Empire, and the reality of being an independent nation.

IF this continues, expect to see more and more Finlandization in Eastern Europe.
 
Oozlefinch said:
IF this continues, expect to see more and more Finlandization in Eastern Europe.
Click to expand...

I agree. I would not be surprised if the Baltic nations and Poland go "Finland"- probably with US and German assistance in the way of weapons subsidies.
Oozlefinch said:
The problem here is that they have not been happy so far.
Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Georgia, now Ukraine.
Click to expand...
True, but I think the Russians have also been pretty calculating. They have only moved when they had an overwhelming military advantage against a very weak opponent.

My guess is that Russia is really a paper tiger and that this is masked by Putins chess and poker skills. Sure, the Russians would fight in defense of their homeland, but my guess is that very few of their units are truly ready for offensive combat (neither is their economy) and that it would not take much of a "Finland" style defensive posture to deter them.
 
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joko104 said:
Clearly, with their country invaded, their navy seized or destroyed, and chaos growing, the leader of Ukraine could declare martial law and combined with being commander of the military take any action. Assume you had total power to make all decisions, what would you do?

Fight Russia with everything you got. If so, how?

Capitulate. Realize there is no way to win and turn all of Ukraine over to Russia to spare lives, conceding all Ukraineans are again defeated and subjugated people?

Flee. Find another country as a safe haven and get your family, your friends and you and get out of there?

Stick it out. Just ride the wave however it goes?
Click to expand...

Fight--but only if Ukraine is invaded beyond Crimea. Keep mobilizing troops, dispersing and activating the air defense grid, try and get as much equipment repatriated from Crimea as possible, keep trying to source equipment for repairs, bring in trainers, and generally be ready with corps sized formations in eastern Ukraine for a showdown. The goal should be to make an invasion as costly as possible while attaching yourself closer and closer to NATO and the EU. Unfortunately the President hasn't done much to reassure Kiev of our willingness to back them, and the European powers have done even less.
 
Oozlefinch said:
I would apply for immediate membership in NATO, and request military assistance for training, and a cross-basing agreement.

Get as many NATO countries to cohabitate their bases as possible, and arrange for a NATO military exercise along the borders with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. This is on the far side of the country from Russia, and each of the countries I mentioned is also a member of NATO.

Russia could not say jack-squat, and they will quickly get the message. They are willing to take on single countries who are on their own, but there is no way they are going to risk taking on NATO.
Click to expand...

I've been saying this from day one. We should have secured an invitation from the Ukrainian government for military exercises and the deployment of troops to Kiev and Odessa in an effort to create a maximum limit of potential Russian advance and stiffen the government.
 
Sherman123 said:
Fight--but only if Ukraine is invaded beyond Crimea. Keep mobilizing troops, dispersing and activating the air defense grid, try and get as much equipment repatriated from Crimea as possible, keep trying to source equipment for repairs, bring in trainers, and generally be ready with corps sized formations in eastern Ukraine for a showdown. The goal should be to make an invasion as costly as possible while attaching yourself closer and closer to NATO and the EU. Unfortunately the President hasn't done much to reassure Kiev of our willingness to back them, and the European powers have done even less.
Click to expand...

The problem here is that with active and reserve combined, the Ukraine has just a little over 1 million military personnel, only 90,000 on active duty.

Russia on the other hand has over 700,000 on active duty, and a combined military of around 3 million people.

Without assistance, there is no way they can hold off against Russia. No more then Kuwait could hold off Iraq, or Poland could hold off Germany.
 
Sherman123 said:
I've been saying this from day one. We should have secured an invitation from the Ukrainian government for military exercises and the deployment of troops to Kiev and Odessa in an effort to create a maximum limit of potential Russian advance and stiffen the government.
Click to expand...

I agree completely with that. Since that hasn't happened that is why I think this was a secret done-deal between the US and Russia before it happened.
 
Sherman123 said:
I've been saying this from day one. We should have secured an invitation from the Ukrainian government for military exercises and the deployment of troops to Kiev and Odessa in an effort to create a maximum limit of potential Russian advance and stiffen the government.
Click to expand...

And once again, this all goes back to Russia.

Back in 2008, the Ukraine and Georgia both held talks with NATO for membership. However, under pressure from Russia the Ukraine dropped the request. And now they are paying for it as Russia walks over them unimpeded.

And this incident is far from over:

Russia May Invade Eastern Ukraine, U.S. Intelligence Says - TIME
 
Oozlefinch said:
The problem here is that with active and reserve combined, the Ukraine has just a little over 1 million military personnel, only 90,000 on active duty.

Russia on the other hand has over 700,000 on active duty, and a combined military of around 3 million people.

Without assistance, there is no way they can hold off against Russia. No more then Kuwait could hold off Iraq, or Poland could hold off Germany.
Click to expand...


Ukraine has one major weapons collection never mentioned. They have 4 active nuclear reactors, plus 16 shut down reactors and over 4 decades worth of radioactive waste from all 20. The border of the Ukraine is about 300 miles from Moscow. The "dirty bombs" from filled mortar shells to a deliberately caused meltdown when the wind is blowing towards Moscow is a horrific "nuclear" threat of turning Moscow and all of Western Russia into the cancer and birth defect capital of the world and making Moscow and Western Russia basically uninhabitable for decades. If 70% of your population base land is covered in radioactive dust, your coutnry did NOT win. even if Russia killed 100% of all Ukrainians, Russia still lost in relation to itself and the world.

Overall, if Ukraine announced a "we will live free or die - and we will take as many with us as we can" attitude - plus making it clear that 40,000,000 Ukraine refuges are going to flee into Eastern and Western Europe - while creating an atmospheric radiation crisis 1000 times that of Chernobyl - plus threatening to blow all Russian gas and pipe lines and overall leaving nothing standing in Ukraine for Russia to even want anymore - would send such a panic thru all of Europe - West and East - plus Russia that they all would want this to end.

If that was combined with having Ukraine officers remove their uniforms and fight as freedom fighters primarily with IEDs and sniper rifles - including within Russia - the goal of taking Ukraine and keeping Crimea would be so astronomically costly in money and lives - plus no reason to even want Ukraine anymore - quickly, all sorts of pressure and excuses would be given for Russia leaving Crimea.

20 nuclear reactors. 30-40 decades of nuclear waste? On Russia's border? 300 miles from Moscow by land and wind? There is no defense against radioactive wind and radioactive dust layering the countryside, towns and cities for 500+ miles in every direction. In a sense, all of Ukraine is a gigantic dirty bomb that could massively devastate all of Europe and the majority of populated Russia. Plus what country wants 40,000,000 refuges due to Ukraine now uninhabitable? It would be the ultimate scorched earth tactic.

Under "we will live free or die" combined with "we will take as many with us as we can" via radiation and destroy all infrastructure of Ukraine so the conquers gain nothing - is a winning threat (or tactic.) In one day, via radiation, Ukraine could kill 100,000,000 people. Some within a week. The rest over the next decade or 2.

They won't do it of course, but that that is Ukraine's only possible military "winning" strategy. Announce either Russia leaves or we'll turn Western Russia and all of Europe into a radiation wasteland. There is no defense against it and all the tanks, planes and troops in the world - a Russian army of 10,000,000 plus all the forces of NATO too - couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Such a threat, if put into place to carry out, would be the ultimate poker game.
 
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Oozlefinch said:
I would apply for immediate membership in NATO, and request military assistance for training, and a cross-basing agreement.

Get as many NATO countries to cohabitate their bases as possible, and arrange for a NATO military exercise along the borders with Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania. This is on the far side of the country from Russia, and each of the countries I mentioned is also a member of NATO.

Russia could not say jack-squat, and they will quickly get the message. They are willing to take on single countries who are on their own, but there is no way they are going to risk taking on NATO.
Click to expand...

But equally so, I can't see NATO wanting to send thousands or millions to die against the Russians. Russia and NATO simply don't want to actually fight each-other, because while it's obvious that NATO, with three of the top five military powers in the world, would win, they would suffer horrendous casualties.

And democracies in particular hate horrendous casualties.
 
Oozlefinch said:
The problem here is that with active and reserve combined, the Ukraine has just a little over 1 million military personnel, only 90,000 on active duty.

Russia on the other hand has over 700,000 on active duty, and a combined military of around 3 million people.

Without assistance, there is no way they can hold off against Russia. No more then Kuwait could hold off Iraq, or Poland could hold off Germany.
Click to expand...

Poland was hit from both sides if I remember correctly - German and the USSR.
 
Oozlefinch said:
The problem here is that with active and reserve combined, the Ukraine has just a little over 1 million military personnel, only 90,000 on active duty.

Russia on the other hand has over 700,000 on active duty, and a combined military of around 3 million people.

Without assistance, there is no way they can hold off against Russia. No more then Kuwait could hold off Iraq, or Poland could hold off Germany.
Click to expand...

Oh, of course not. The point is to make the annexation of more Ukrainian territory expensive and allow time for a rump state west of the Dnieper to be created.

I also think the balance is slightly better than a glance at the numbers in their totality would make it out to be. Russia isn't working with the bulk of its military, it's primarily working with the troops that were already garrisoned in the Southern Military District and reinforcements that have been conveyed there over the past few weeks. It's also leaning heavily on the VDV brigades which are widely believed to be their only 'real' first rate formations and even these are significantly undermanned and rely heavily on conscripts despite the effort to move towards contract reforms. For all the aspersions cast on the Ukrainian military and it's readiness the Russian one isn't in exponentially better condition, this is after all the country that barely managed to defend the air defense grid of Georgia and lost 9 warplanes doing it. Not that they performed fantastically in Tshkinvali either.

Without going into a military side by side, which I'm sure you and others are more equipped to do, I'm merely saying that the scales are not as heavy as they first appear. If the Ukrainian military has actually pulled itself together and makes a decision to defend their front tenaciously and with high morale I wouldn't at all be shocked if they managed to severely embarrass Russia even while they lose. Which might be all they'd need to do.
 
Ad_Captandum said:
But equally so, I can't see NATO wanting to send thousands or millions to die against the Russians. Russia and NATO simply don't want to actually fight each-other, because while it's obvious that NATO, with three of the top five military powers in the world, would win, they would suffer horrendous casualties.

And democracies in particular hate horrendous casualties.
Click to expand...

I can, because this is what NATO was made for in the first place. Standing in place over it's members to ensure the Soviets (now Russians) did not invade them.

Russia is not stupid enough to risk a conflict with NATO. They were not that foolish when they were the Soviet Union, and they are nowhere near that powerful today. And the political backlash from most of the world would be devastating.
 
joko104 said:
Ukraine has one major weapons collection never mentioned. They have 4 active nuclear reactors, plus 16 shut down reactors and over 4 decades worth of radioactive waste from all 20. The border of the Ukraine is about 300 miles from Moscow. The "dirty bombs" from filled mortar shells to a deliberately caused meltdown when the wind is blowing towards Moscow is a horrific "nuclear" threat of turning Moscow and all of Western Russia into the cancer and birth defect capital of the world and making Moscow and Western Russia basically uninhabitable for decades. If 70% of your population base land is covered in radioactive dust, your coutnry did NOT win. even if Russia killed 100% of all Ukrainians, Russia still lost in relation to itself and the world.

Overall, if Ukraine announced a "we will live free or die - and we will take as many with us as we can" attitude - plus making it clear that 40,000,000 Ukraine refuges are going to flee into Eastern and Western Europe - while creating an atmospheric radiation crisis 1000 times that of Chernobyl - plus threatening to blow all Russian gas and pipe lines and overall leaving nothing standing in Ukraine for Russia to even want anymore - would send such a panic thru all of Europe - West and East - plus Russia that they all would want this to end.

If that was combined with having Ukraine officers remove their uniforms and fight as freedom fighters primarily with IEDs and sniper rifles - including within Russia - the goal of taking Ukraine and keeping Crimea would be so astronomically costly in money and lives - plus no reason to even want Ukraine anymore - quickly, all sorts of pressure and excuses would be given for Russia leaving Crimea.

20 nuclear reactors. 30-40 decades of nuclear waste? On Russia's border? 300 miles from Moscow by land and wind? There is no defense against radioactive wind and radioactive dust layering the countryside, towns and cities for 500+ miles in every direction. In a sense, all of Ukraine is a gigantic dirty bomb that could massively devastate all of Europe and the majority of populated Russia. Plus what country wants 40,000,000 refuges due to Ukraine now uninhabitable? It would be the ultimate scorched earth tactic.

Under "we will live free or die" combined with "we will take as many with us as we can" via radiation and destroy all infrastructure of Ukraine so the conquers gain nothing - is a winning threat (or tactic.) In one day, via radiation, Ukraine could kill 100,000,000 people. Some within a week. The rest over the next decade or 2.

They won't do it of course, but that that is Ukraine's only possible military "winning" strategy. Announce either Russia leaves or we'll turn Western Russia and all of Europe into a radiation wasteland. There is no defense against it and all the tanks, planes and troops in the world - a Russian army of 10,000,000 plus all the forces of NATO too - couldn't do a damn thing about it.

Such a threat, if put into place to carry out, would be the ultimate poker game.
Click to expand...

I think we can probably safely discard the prospect of the Ukrainian government (or the military and civil servants it would have to force to obey) forcing their reactor cores to meltdown in a questionable effort to bathe the entire Ukrainian and Russian plain in radiation. On the scale of possible outcomes this is probably as far on the ludicrously unlikely as you can get, just a touch shy of alien intervention. Let alone whether or not its even practicable.
 
Sherman123 said:
I think we can probably safely discard the prospect of the Ukrainian government (or the military and civil servants it would have to force to obey) forcing their reactor cores to meltdown in a questionable effort to bathe the entire Ukrainian and Russian plain in radiation. On the scale of possible outcomes this is probably as far on the ludicrously unlikely as you can get, just a touch shy of alien intervention. Let alone whether or not its even practicable.
Click to expand...

The odds of this are so low it is not even worth considering.

If they tried it, they would instantly become an international pariah, and I expect both Russia and NATO would assist in their destruction.
 
Sherman123 said:
I think we can probably safely discard the prospect of the Ukrainian government (or the military and civil servants it would have to force to obey) forcing their reactor cores to meltdown in a questionable effort to bathe the entire Ukrainian and Russian plain in radiation. On the scale of possible outcomes this is probably as far on the ludicrously unlikely as you can get, just a touch shy of alien intervention. Let alone whether or not its even practicable.
Click to expand...


I stated I do not think they will do this and it is clear Ukraine is not willing to fight.

As for "practical," causing a nuke to meltdown is as easy as it gets. a few mortar rounds into the cooling tower and cooling pipes would do it. Or just blow the power source. The trick with a functional nuke isn't making it meltdown. It is preventing it from doing so. Blowing storage tanks is easy enough. Scorched earth tactics historically in general are a successful tactic.
 
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