View Poll Results: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine now?

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  • Fight

    5 33.33%
  • Flee

    1 6.67%
  • Capitulate

    3 20.00%
  • Stick it out

    4 26.67%
  • Other

    2 13.33%
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Thread: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

  1. #21
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oozlefinch View Post
    The problem here is that with active and reserve combined, the Ukraine has just a little over 1 million military personnel, only 90,000 on active duty.

    Russia on the other hand has over 700,000 on active duty, and a combined military of around 3 million people.

    Without assistance, there is no way they can hold off against Russia. No more then Kuwait could hold off Iraq, or Poland could hold off Germany.
    Oh, of course not. The point is to make the annexation of more Ukrainian territory expensive and allow time for a rump state west of the Dnieper to be created.

    I also think the balance is slightly better than a glance at the numbers in their totality would make it out to be. Russia isn't working with the bulk of its military, it's primarily working with the troops that were already garrisoned in the Southern Military District and reinforcements that have been conveyed there over the past few weeks. It's also leaning heavily on the VDV brigades which are widely believed to be their only 'real' first rate formations and even these are significantly undermanned and rely heavily on conscripts despite the effort to move towards contract reforms. For all the aspersions cast on the Ukrainian military and it's readiness the Russian one isn't in exponentially better condition, this is after all the country that barely managed to defend the air defense grid of Georgia and lost 9 warplanes doing it. Not that they performed fantastically in Tshkinvali either.

    Without going into a military side by side, which I'm sure you and others are more equipped to do, I'm merely saying that the scales are not as heavy as they first appear. If the Ukrainian military has actually pulled itself together and makes a decision to defend their front tenaciously and with high morale I wouldn't at all be shocked if they managed to severely embarrass Russia even while they lose. Which might be all they'd need to do.

  2. #22
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ad_Captandum View Post
    But equally so, I can't see NATO wanting to send thousands or millions to die against the Russians. Russia and NATO simply don't want to actually fight each-other, because while it's obvious that NATO, with three of the top five military powers in the world, would win, they would suffer horrendous casualties.

    And democracies in particular hate horrendous casualties.
    I can, because this is what NATO was made for in the first place. Standing in place over it's members to ensure the Soviets (now Russians) did not invade them.

    Russia is not stupid enough to risk a conflict with NATO. They were not that foolish when they were the Soviet Union, and they are nowhere near that powerful today. And the political backlash from most of the world would be devastating.
    War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. - John Stuart Mill

  3. #23
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    Ukraine has one major weapons collection never mentioned. They have 4 active nuclear reactors, plus 16 shut down reactors and over 4 decades worth of radioactive waste from all 20. The border of the Ukraine is about 300 miles from Moscow. The "dirty bombs" from filled mortar shells to a deliberately caused meltdown when the wind is blowing towards Moscow is a horrific "nuclear" threat of turning Moscow and all of Western Russia into the cancer and birth defect capital of the world and making Moscow and Western Russia basically uninhabitable for decades. If 70% of your population base land is covered in radioactive dust, your coutnry did NOT win. even if Russia killed 100% of all Ukrainians, Russia still lost in relation to itself and the world.

    Overall, if Ukraine announced a "we will live free or die - and we will take as many with us as we can" attitude - plus making it clear that 40,000,000 Ukraine refuges are going to flee into Eastern and Western Europe - while creating an atmospheric radiation crisis 1000 times that of Chernobyl - plus threatening to blow all Russian gas and pipe lines and overall leaving nothing standing in Ukraine for Russia to even want anymore - would send such a panic thru all of Europe - West and East - plus Russia that they all would want this to end.

    If that was combined with having Ukraine officers remove their uniforms and fight as freedom fighters primarily with IEDs and sniper rifles - including within Russia - the goal of taking Ukraine and keeping Crimea would be so astronomically costly in money and lives - plus no reason to even want Ukraine anymore - quickly, all sorts of pressure and excuses would be given for Russia leaving Crimea.

    20 nuclear reactors. 30-40 decades of nuclear waste? On Russia's border? 300 miles from Moscow by land and wind? There is no defense against radioactive wind and radioactive dust layering the countryside, towns and cities for 500+ miles in every direction. In a sense, all of Ukraine is a gigantic dirty bomb that could massively devastate all of Europe and the majority of populated Russia. Plus what country wants 40,000,000 refuges due to Ukraine now uninhabitable? It would be the ultimate scorched earth tactic.

    Under "we will live free or die" combined with "we will take as many with us as we can" via radiation and destroy all infrastructure of Ukraine so the conquers gain nothing - is a winning threat (or tactic.) In one day, via radiation, Ukraine could kill 100,000,000 people. Some within a week. The rest over the next decade or 2.

    They won't do it of course, but that that is Ukraine's only possible military "winning" strategy. Announce either Russia leaves or we'll turn Western Russia and all of Europe into a radiation wasteland. There is no defense against it and all the tanks, planes and troops in the world - a Russian army of 10,000,000 plus all the forces of NATO too - couldn't do a damn thing about it.

    Such a threat, if put into place to carry out, would be the ultimate poker game.
    I think we can probably safely discard the prospect of the Ukrainian government (or the military and civil servants it would have to force to obey) forcing their reactor cores to meltdown in a questionable effort to bathe the entire Ukrainian and Russian plain in radiation. On the scale of possible outcomes this is probably as far on the ludicrously unlikely as you can get, just a touch shy of alien intervention. Let alone whether or not its even practicable.

  4. #24
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    I think we can probably safely discard the prospect of the Ukrainian government (or the military and civil servants it would have to force to obey) forcing their reactor cores to meltdown in a questionable effort to bathe the entire Ukrainian and Russian plain in radiation. On the scale of possible outcomes this is probably as far on the ludicrously unlikely as you can get, just a touch shy of alien intervention. Let alone whether or not its even practicable.
    The odds of this are so low it is not even worth considering.

    If they tried it, they would instantly become an international pariah, and I expect both Russia and NATO would assist in their destruction.
    War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. - John Stuart Mill

  5. #25
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sherman123 View Post
    I think we can probably safely discard the prospect of the Ukrainian government (or the military and civil servants it would have to force to obey) forcing their reactor cores to meltdown in a questionable effort to bathe the entire Ukrainian and Russian plain in radiation. On the scale of possible outcomes this is probably as far on the ludicrously unlikely as you can get, just a touch shy of alien intervention. Let alone whether or not its even practicable.

    I stated I do not think they will do this and it is clear Ukraine is not willing to fight.

    As for "practical," causing a nuke to meltdown is as easy as it gets. a few mortar rounds into the cooling tower and cooling pipes would do it. Or just blow the power source. The trick with a functional nuke isn't making it meltdown. It is preventing it from doing so. Blowing storage tanks is easy enough. Scorched earth tactics historically in general are a successful tactic.

  6. #26
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oozlefinch View Post
    The odds of this are so low it is not even worth considering.

    If they tried it, they would instantly become an international pariah, and I expect both Russia and NATO would assist in their destruction.
    Destroy who? Mow down millions of Ukrainian refugees? It is not something "tried." Once the cooling system and power to a nuclear power plant is damages it WILL meltdown. No power on earth can stop it. Blowing storage tanks is something any Iraqi civilian could do with an ordinary iron bomb. So could the Ukraine military.

    Destroy who? What good would that do? I have no doubt that Russia and NATO would go ape-**** crazy. But, the reality is they would understand there is nothing they could do to prevent it. And it within the rules of war.

    A country can use nuclear weapons if its survival is at stake. It is just a different form of nuclear weapons.

    Might be hard to get Russian and NATO troops to march into irradiated land. If so, then it is a suicide mission and they basically kill themselves. Don't need any soldiers to kill an army being marched to its death.

    It would hit Europe nearly as hard as Russia. Depending on wind, the least hit actually could be central Ukraine for where the reactors are located.

  7. #27
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by Oozlefinch View Post
    I can, because this is what NATO was made for in the first place. Standing in place over it's members to ensure the Soviets (now Russians) did not invade them.

    Russia is not stupid enough to risk a conflict with NATO. They were not that foolish when they were the Soviet Union, and they are nowhere near that powerful today. And the political backlash from most of the world would be devastating.

    It is important to understand at least half of the members of this forum have ONE singular foreign and military policy: "RUN AWAY! HIDE!"

    Putin and the rest of the world understands the USA is becoming the land of cowards, so the chaos will continue to grow around the world. Most of the America "Great Generation" have died or on their death bed. Once again, cowards and appeasers have taken control. Which means, of course, tens of millions of people are going to die and billions enslaved.

  8. #28
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Buy nukes. Any contractual concessions to that effect could always be reneged upon later, having secured sovereignty. In light of the circumstances, I don't believe any measure of perfidy is dirty pool.

  9. #29
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    Clearly, with their country invaded, their navy seized or destroyed, and chaos growing, the leader of Ukraine could declare martial law and combined with being commander of the military take any action. Assume you had total power to make all decisions, what would you do?

    Fight Russia with everything you got. If so, how?

    Capitulate. Realize there is no way to win and turn all of Ukraine over to Russia to spare lives, conceding all Ukraineans are again defeated and subjugated people?

    Flee. Find another country as a safe haven and get your family, your friends and you and get out of there?

    Stick it out. Just ride the wave however it goes?
    The same thing he is currently doing after a mob basically chased him out.
    "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murder is less to fear"

    Cicero Marcus Tullius

  10. #30
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    Re: What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine?

    "What would you do if you were the leader of Ukraine now?"

    If by "the leader" you mean an absolute monarch ----well, isn't it obvious?

    I would immediately:

    (1) Hand Donetsk and other defunct industrial Russian-speaking centers in the East over to "Russia". Who needs a Fifth Column, anyway? "There, be my guest. You have a perfectly good plan, how to revive their fortunes, I'm sure".

    (2) Give up the Crimean Peninsula as a part of Ukraine, but fight like hell for the Crimean Tatar independence/functional autonomy, or - the worst case scenario - their relocation to the Kherson area, or something like that. Believe it or not, tribes of people do remember favors (google "Polak, Węgier dwa bratanki").

    (3) Beyond that - dig in, load your guns, clench your teeth, and pray. You will incur some losses, that's inevitable. But you still may win in the end (google "The Mannerheim Line")

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