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I don't think Putin is that brilliant because he is in the process of turning the Ukraine into another Chechnya.
I'm sure he's aware of partisans - Russia has had them for a long while but the difference here is the Ukraine is not a Muslim state whereas Chechnya is. Ukraine is mostly Ukrainian Orthodox with some smattering of Catholics. There may still be partisan fighting and bombings but somehow I'm not seeing another Chechnya - at least not yet. I also doubt he will keep his military there and nation build. Someone on DP said it today, they'll just install a new leader and government and the military will leave.