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Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

You worried?

  • Yes

    Votes: 40 49.4%
  • No

    Votes: 36 44.4%
  • I'm buying my marshmallows

    Votes: 5 6.2%

  • Total voters
    81
Ukraine


Let's not pretend that Ukraine ever had a clear path to membership.

This wasn't a EU membership deal, it was a free trade agreement that would help the Ukrainian economy a great deal. Having access to a rich 500mil people market is a pretty big deal you know.
Eventually, after a lot of hard work, it could have been a viable candidate for ascension. It had a chance.

Some countries did manage to pull themselves up and become worthy of joining the EU. Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia... all of them countries that were under the boot of communism and there was massive progress done in a decade after 1989.
 
This wasn't a EU membership deal, it was a free trade agreement that would help the Ukrainian economy a great deal. Having access to a rich 500mil people market is a pretty big deal you know.

Obviously (I provided the citation, ya know), and they were never even close to that. There was never any real likelihood of Ukraine joining the EU, they couldn't even qualify for trade agreements.
 
Strangely, Russia is giving Yanukovich the cold shoulder. I would have agreed with you about them defending "the legitimate government", but for that. It is interesting, their game.

Because Yanukovych is dead to them. He's of no use. He'll be given a nice villa in some suburban home in Moscow. They need a fresh face that isn't so universally hated as Yanukovych. You can't put him back in Ukraine and expect peace and happiness and stability. No.

He served his purpose. He's useless now.
 
Obviously (I provided the citation, ya know), and they were never even close to that. There was never any real likelihood of Ukraine joining the EU, they couldn't even qualify for trade agreements.

They did qualify for trade agreement. That meeting in Vilnius was to sign a trade agreement that Yanukovych turned down.
 
They did qualify for trade agreement. That meeting in Vilnius was to sign a trade agreement that Yanukovych turned down.

Re-read the citation I provided.
 
Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

I'm concerned that the people in Ukraine are going to have to endure a civil war with Russian intervention. Also, I'm concerned that the world will look to us to fix it while doing nothing itself. It will use that savings to provide health care and infrastructure to its citizens, while our own infrastructure is crumbling.

Here's the solution :

1. Crimea aligns with Russia. Let them go.

2. If the world wants an army, it needs to build and fund one.

3. Obama shouldn't be giving ultimatums to Russia. A Mexican civil war would be on us, and Russia would have no role. This one is on the EU.

In other words, EU, it's your turn.
 
Re-read the citation I provided.


In 2012, the EU signed deals on free trade and political association with Ukraine; however EU leaders have stated that these agreements will not be ratified unless Ukraine addresses concerns over a "stark deterioration of democracy and the rule of law", including the imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko and Yuriy Lutsenko in 2011 and 2012.[2][3][4][nb 1] On 25 February 2013, the EU set a three-month deadline for Ukraine to carry out the required changes to its justice and electoral systems in order to enable the formal signing of their agreements with the EU in Vilnius on 29 November 2013.[6]
Ok. I read it the first time. Quit shoving it in my face like it means anything that counters my statements. It doesn't.

Now you read this.

Membership prospects[edit]

On 27 February 2014 the European Parliament passed a resolution that recognized Ukraine's right to "apply to become a Member of the Union, provided that it adheres to the principles of democracy, respects fundamental freedoms and human and minority rights, and ensures the rule of law".[

To clarify what I was saying. The treaty was going to be signed if Yanukovych hadn't backed off. The treaty was off the table in 2013, was back on the table in 2013. The only reason Yanukovych didn't sign is because he didn't want to. He broke the deal, get it?

And 2 days ago, after democracy got reinstitued in Ukraine, the EU offered a big ****ing ray of hope for the Ukrainian people and something to strive for. You statement that there wasn't any real likelyhood of them joining the EU is utter nonsense. With enough work and dedication, they would have been viable candidates in half a decade or so.
 
Oooh, a "right to apply"!

Ukraine was never close to satisfying the requirements.
 
I'm concerned that the people in Ukraine are going to have to endure a civil war with Russian intervention. Also, I'm concerned that the world will look to us to fix it while doing nothing itself. It will use that savings to provide health care and infrastructure to its citizens, while our own infrastructure is crumbling.

Here's the solution :

1. Crimea aligns with Russia. Let them go.

2. If the world wants an army, it needs to build and fund one.

3. Obama shouldn't be giving ultimatums to Russia. A Mexican civil war would be on us, and Russia would have no role. This one is on the EU.

In other words, EU, it's your turn.

Exactly, the Ukraine has been part of Russia for a very long time and before than it was divided between Poland and Russia. It has only became a Country in 1991. The Ukraine if Russia's and the EU's problem. Not ours.
 
Just saw the mainstream news on tv reporting about it too.

Hope the situation doesn't get out of control.
 
Oooh, a "right to apply"!

Ukraine was never close to satisfying the requirements.

When Bulgaria and Romania started considering joining the EU, they weren't close to satisfying those requirements too. It took 4-5 years of hard work and reform to get there, but they did. It doesn't mean there aren't still problems, but the progress is visible.
 
As I said in other threads I am worried about this crisis it doesn't feel like the others, somehow it feels worse.
I hope it gets solved peacefully but I am not optimistic
 
When Bulgaria and Romania started considering joining the EU, they weren't close to satisfying those requirements too. It took 4-5 years of hard work and reform to get there, but they did. It doesn't mean there aren't still problems, but the progress is visible.

And the EU has been burned by letting in too many borderline developed countries.
 
And the EU has been burned by letting in too many borderline developed countries.

Considering your astute contributions in the Europe subforum in the past, I'll take that comment as another one of the borderline ignorant comments that have flash but no real depth of substance or knowledge behind them.

Soo... yeah. When you start posting comprehensive topics in the Europe subforum about the EU, then I'll take you seriously.
 
Actually, the West massively supported the opposition movement aka "Orange Revolution" in 2004 and now again the now successful protests, because these protesters mainly located in west Ukraine are pro-Western.

The east Ukrainians, on the other hand, mostly speak and feel Russian and are pro-Russian. The now ousted former president Yanukovich belonged to that camp. He was about giving up treaties with the West/EU and embrace Russia, which is what caused the opposition uprising this time.

The uprising in Ukraine is hardly neo-Nazi or fascist, just one of the three opposition parties involved in the protests is, and the smallest at that. The two other major opposition (now governing) parties are somewhat moderate, but pro-Western.

So the West has been and will probably continue supporting these pro-Western parties, even though an extreme right radical party is among them, while Russia will continue to support the pro-Russian toppled party, in classic proxy-war fashion.

My bad, I had Viktor Yushchenko confused with Viktor Yanukovych.

The nationalist faction is very aggressive. They could be a problem if they're part of the new opposition government. Is Yuliya Timoshenko, out of prison? Her release was one of the stipulations for joining the EU. But wasn't it her party that wanted to end the Ukraine Russian gas for naval base in the Crimea agreement? That would directly effect Russia's interests, no?
 
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What worries me is the possibility of allowing Russia to invade another nation and oppress those people into a pro-Russian/soviet style government. If Russia gets involved then the rest of the world should as well to stop them.

What I don't believe many take into account is that a surprisingly good majority of Ukrainians welcome a Russian take over. The US with its interests as they are isn't going to allow for too many of us to learn of this, all of our traditional news outlets crying the cry of freedom, oppression, and the evils of Putin's Russia.

At the very least I'd say a partial annexation could be in the works.
 
To what are you referring, exactly?

Estonia took down a statue of a Russian Soldier, left there by the Soviets after WWII. The Soviets said the statue was supposed to stay there to remind the Estonians of their liberation, apparently the Estonians mostly remembered the mass-rapes. Russia's response was to launch a cyber attack that basically shut down the country. NATO's response was to say "Gosh, that's really awful. Man. Someone should do something about that...."
 
I'm concerned that the people in Ukraine are going to have to endure a civil war with Russian intervention. Also, I'm concerned that the world will look to us to fix it while doing nothing itself. It will use that savings to provide health care and infrastructure to its citizens, while our own infrastructure is crumbling.

Here's the solution :

1. Crimea aligns with Russia. Let them go.

2. If the world wants an army, it needs to build and fund one.

3. Obama shouldn't be giving ultimatums to Russia. A Mexican civil war would be on us, and Russia would have no role. This one is on the EU.

In other words, EU, it's your turn.

I agree. The one's who have the most to lose are the one's who need to be leading this charge. That would be the EU.
 
We have no business going into the Ukraine. If we go, it ought to come with a bill. We should never get involved in anyone's internal struggles unless we're getting paid for it.
 
Estonia took down a statue of a Russian Soldier, left there by the Soviets after WWII. The Soviets said the statue was supposed to stay there to remind the Estonians of their liberation, apparently the Estonians mostly remembered the mass-rapes. Russia's response was to launch a cyber attack that basically shut down the country. NATO's response was to say "Gosh, that's really awful. Man. Someone should do something about that...."
Even the experts couldn't pin that on Russia - including DARPA's own security consultant. Most experts believe it was NOT directed by the Russian government and there's certainly no proof of such involvement. It's a fact that at least one of the people involved was Estonian and it's likely that more Estonians were involved as well as private citizens of Russia. Private hackers all over the world get involved in politics and have for decades.

To expect NATO to act on this kind of event is nonsense at it's finest.
 
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I'm not playing down the gravity of the situation (as far as it goes), but don't expect any countdown to global annihilation. This isn't the Cuban missile crisis. The only time WW3 looks set to kick off is where superpowers face off directly. That won't happen over bum**** Ukraine. Nobody's 'ending the world' over this nappy BS. You need a little perspective. I'm guessing you probably succumbed to the hysteria over Iran and North Korea, too. Look what happened. Not one thing. We're all still breathing. Imagine that.

Don't waste your time sweating bullets about silly Armageddon scenarios. Worry about the fiscal deficit. Education, health care, the environment and trade. Stuff like that. Leave the placard-carrying doomsayers to their own devices. They like that ****. You don't have to follow suit. It's one small step from unfounded, reactionary hysteria to believing Kris Kristofferson drinks blood and shape shifts into a 7' lizard. Tread lightly, dude.

I read this and all I could think is that you're trying to talk yourself down. :) That's an understandable reaction, man.

We need, though, to be a little realistic about the situation and not try to placate ourselves by letting our focus just drift toward that which makes us comfortable. We need to approach this discussion with clarity and realism.

With that said, read what I wrote carefully - I think there's about a 15% chance that this situation could spark WW3. Now that's not very high odds, but I do think there are scenarios that could play out which could lead to that end.

Now, is that worth worrying about? Maybe worry is the wrong word. It does, though, cause me to be of the opinion that we need to take this issue seriously and, as a nation, ensure that we do whatever we can to see that the scenarios which could potentially lead to a direct conflict with the Russians are avoided.

At the end of the day, this is a defining moment in President Obama's presidency. How he handles it will help shape and determine the direction of this country.

With that in mind, as educated observers of the political arena, this is a very interesting time which warrants both attention and discussion.
 
Each one of those has a different geopolitical circumstance. You are essentially claiming a slippery slope, which in order to be valid, would require for there to be nothing to differentiate them. I can tell you, I would certainly never advocate allowing their grabbing of East Germany. Among other things, with them we actually do have a defense treaty, unlike Ukraine. (The agreement with Ukraine is not a defense treaty).

It is my view that Russia should have never permitted the departure of Ukraine without a partition. It makes no sense whatsoever for majority people aligned with Russia to be in a country that would potentially look to the West. And Crimea should be part of Russia without question, except for one brief aberration of history.

I believe Russia may seek partition. But for their agreement with us, the UK and Ukraine, military intervention to achieve it would even have some legitimacy, depending on the territories they seek.

So, nope, don't see the slippery slope that you do.

Hi Dezaad,

A slippery slope is a logical fallacy where a person asserts that some event must inevitably follow from another without any rational argument or demonstrable mechanism for the inevitability of the event in question.

I don't think I made an assertion that the downfall of Ukraine would inevitably lead to the recapture of East Germany, for instance. Just to make clear, I was asking a question... if they can take Ukraine, what's to stop them from taking East Gemany?

That's one to think about, and I'd like to hear your thoughts.

You are correct that the situations in Germany and Ukraine differ, however what you maybe haven't considered yet is how Russia itself would differ, hypothetically, were it to succeed unequivocally in Ukraine by taking control of that country. Surely they would be just a little bit bolder than before, right?

On the same train of thought, how would the perception of the United States differ, in that hypothetical scenario? Surely the world would look at us and, where in the past it was implied that we would come to the aid of our allies in need, to what extent would that faith in the United States diminish? Would the Germans, Poles, Taiwanese, etc feel the need to rethink their international allegiances given this new information?

If I'm Taiwan, or Poland, or Japan, and the United States sits on its hands while Russia takes Ukraine, I'm going to think long and hard about my allegiance with the United States, and possibly consider allying with the Russians or Chinese instead to save my country from future invasion.

Something to consider.
 
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