I'm buying my marshmallows
The Ukraine situation is no giant, earth-shattering deal. It's significant, but nothing like on the drama some seem to be suggesting here, IMO.
Russia is not going to invade the Ukraine. At most, IMO, they might supply military support to the Crimea becoming a Russian-leaning independent. They might even support the Western Ukraine becoming a separate nation.
And remember, the Crimea is different then the rest of the Ukraine. It is considered by many to be an autonomous region...separate from any other. Khrushchev basically admitted as much when he 'gave' the region to the Ukraine in the 50's. Plus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based there - so of course Russian troops will be in the Crimea. The Crimea is not really a direct part of the Ukraine...it is a grey area.
But there is NO WAY they will just flat out invade the entire Ukraine.
This is not the Cold War. Russia completely depends on the sale of their natural resources...much of it to the West. If they start invading independent countries that reject their presence, they can kiss those resource profits good bye.
China might even think twice about dealing with Russia under those circumstances.
Back in the Cold War, the U.S.S.R. made virtually nothing from selling commodities to the West...they had a (theoretically) internal economy...not any longer.
Putin is no idiot. Sure, he does not want the Ukraine to go EU. But he wants to survive politically FAR more. And he won't survive long if his actions cut off natural resource profits and plunge the nation into a huge recession.
Russia might help the Crimea become 'independent'. And they would obviously offer moral support to the Western Ukraine if it separates.
But there is, IMO, ZERO chance of Russia invading the entire Ukraine...let alone the Western portion were it to separate (unless the 'provisional government' in the east asked them to do so).
Russia's economy depends on exports of it's raw materials...it cannot risk a massive recession by alienating it's customers.
And finally, the LAST thing the West should do is directly militarily challenge the Russians over this UNLESS the latter actually start an invasion of the non-Crimean Ukraine...which they won't.
The west should warn Russia to stay out of the non-Crimean Ukraine...but considering the Russians already have a huge naval base in the Crimea and the west said nothing about it before. They cannot suddenly turn around and demand the Russians leave their long-used military port now.
I think the West is handling this pretty well so far...wait and see, but make sure Russia knows that Russian troops in Kiev will not be tolerated or be in anyone's best interests.
Personally, I think the Crimea might leave to become 'independent'...with Russian help. And maybe the western Ukraine will break away to the EU...maybe.
But that's it.
No new Cold War...no chance if that, IMO.
Last edited by DA60; 03-01-14 at 05:25 AM.
'What kind of sick and twisted toy factory is this?'
'We are all the sum of our tears. Too little and the ground is not fertile, and nothing can grow there. Too much, the best of us is washed away.'
"Better to be dead and cool, than alive and uncool."
I'm not particularly worried, no, certainly not the point of expecting WWIII out of this. I've been waiting 20+ years for this to happen and, quite frankly, I'm surprised it's taken this long. Eventually, Russia and Western Europe were going to be face to face, again. Well, here we are. Russia is in a weaker position than before but it's still a big economic power in Eastern Europe with all it's natural resources and infrastructure between it and the rest of the area. Just like the US, Russia will use that economic power to gain and maintain a certain amount of control - and it sure doesn't hurt that it's also the 400 pound gorilla in that area of the world. (Like US, they really don't have to use the military chip in this kind of power struggle - it's existence is enough.)
Should we be worried? About what? Russia acting like US?
Mt. Rushmore: Three surveyors and some other guy.
Life goes on within you and without you. -Harrison
Hear the echoes of the centuries, Power isn't all that money buys. -Peart
After you learn quantum mechanics you're never really the same again. -Weinberg