View Poll Results: You worried?

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  • Yes

    49 49.00%
  • No

    45 45.00%
  • I'm buying my marshmallows

    6 6.00%
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Thread: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

  1. #71
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Russia can take Crimea and there isn't a damn thing anyone can do about it. They've no need for an agreement.

    The world is not going to 'coalition of the willing' against a mostly western nation dealing with its own border.
    Passive position but okay.
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    The Ukraine situation is no giant, earth-shattering deal. It's significant, but nothing like on the drama some seem to be suggesting here, IMO.

    Russia is not going to invade the Ukraine. At most, IMO, they might supply military support to the Crimea becoming a Russian-leaning independent. They might even support the Western Ukraine becoming a separate nation.
    And remember, the Crimea is different then the rest of the Ukraine. It is considered by many to be an autonomous region...separate from any other. Khrushchev basically admitted as much when he 'gave' the region to the Ukraine in the 50's. Plus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based there - so of course Russian troops will be in the Crimea. The Crimea is not really a direct part of the Ukraine...it is a grey area.

    But there is NO WAY they will just flat out invade the entire Ukraine.

    This is not the Cold War. Russia completely depends on the sale of their natural resources...much of it to the West. If they start invading independent countries that reject their presence, they can kiss those resource profits good bye.
    China might even think twice about dealing with Russia under those circumstances.

    Back in the Cold War, the U.S.S.R. made virtually nothing from selling commodities to the West...they had a (theoretically) internal economy...not any longer.
    Putin is no idiot. Sure, he does not want the Ukraine to go EU. But he wants to survive politically FAR more. And he won't survive long if his actions cut off natural resource profits and plunge the nation into a huge recession.

    Russia might help the Crimea become 'independent'. And they would obviously offer moral support to the Western Ukraine if it separates.
    But there is, IMO, ZERO chance of Russia invading the entire Ukraine...let alone the Western portion were it to separate (unless the 'provisional government' in the east asked them to do so).

    Russia's economy depends on exports of it's raw materials...it cannot risk a massive recession by alienating it's customers.


    And finally, the LAST thing the West should do is directly militarily challenge the Russians over this UNLESS the latter actually start an invasion of the non-Crimean Ukraine...which they won't.

    The west should warn Russia to stay out of the non-Crimean Ukraine...but considering the Russians already have a huge naval base in the Crimea and the west said nothing about it before. They cannot suddenly turn around and demand the Russians leave their long-used military port now.

    I think the West is handling this pretty well so far...wait and see, but make sure Russia knows that Russian troops in Kiev will not be tolerated or be in anyone's best interests.


    Personally, I think the Crimea might leave to become 'independent'...with Russian help. And maybe the western Ukraine will break away to the EU...maybe.

    But that's it.

    No new Cold War...no chance if that, IMO.
    Last edited by DA60; 03-01-14 at 06:25 AM.

  3. #73
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by DDD View Post
    Passive position but okay.
    You're not gonna find anyone on this board more interventionist than I. And I say it cannot be done.

    1. Russia is mostly western.
    2. Russia is powerful.
    3. It's their border.

    End of story.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Russia can take Crimea and there isn't a damn thing anyone can do about it. They've no need for an agreement.

    The world is not going to 'coalition of the willing' against a mostly western nation dealing with its own border.
    You know what they'll say?

    "Crimea river."

    Bahahaha

  5. #75
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    You know what they'll say?

    "Crimea river."

    Bahahaha

    That's a bit insensitive. The Russians are kinda assholes, ya know.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    That's a bit insensitive. The Russians are kinda assholes, ya know.
    Way to "Ukraine" on my parade.

    Ho ho ho ho I crack me up.

  7. #77
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    Way to "Ukraine" on my parade.

    Ho ho ho ho I crack me up.
    no need to go "russian" to a conclusion.
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  8. #78
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    I don't get it, people. Assad slaughters 100k and gasses the capital, and people don't want to get involved. A mostly western nation intervenes with an instability issue on its border and NOW people want to do something? That doesn't make any sense. WTF kind of priorities are those?
    There is no "good" faction to support in Syria.
    the rebels are islamists who want sharia and kill alawites and christians.
    The FSA is inexistent and has been for a long time now.
    The kurds are separatists who want to take NE Syria.
    And Assad is a dictator who lost all legitimacy. You tell me now, eco, who will you have supported? None. The only course of intervention in Syria is to destroy all those 4 groups and give the people democracy. And that means long time occupation, another Iraq basically.

    In Ukraine, that's not the case now. There is a right course of action and there are correct choices -> the pro-EU protesters and the people they trust are the ones we need to be supporting. There is a chance for an easier happy ending, and a quicker happy ending to this. There is no easy way with Syria.
    There is also isn't going to be a country we could work and trade with either. Ukraine whether it splits or remains as a whole is more likely to be a country we can deal and do business with and culturally we have a lot more in common than we ever would have even if we had gone into Syria.

  9. #79
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    I'm not particularly worried, no, certainly not the point of expecting WWIII out of this. I've been waiting 20+ years for this to happen and, quite frankly, I'm surprised it's taken this long. Eventually, Russia and Western Europe were going to be face to face, again. Well, here we are. Russia is in a weaker position than before but it's still a big economic power in Eastern Europe with all it's natural resources and infrastructure between it and the rest of the area. Just like the US, Russia will use that economic power to gain and maintain a certain amount of control - and it sure doesn't hurt that it's also the 400 pound gorilla in that area of the world. (Like US, they really don't have to use the military chip in this kind of power struggle - it's existence is enough.)

    Should we be worried? About what? Russia acting like US?
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  10. #80
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite Chaos View Post
    There is also isn't going to be a country we could work and trade with either. Ukraine whether it splits or remains as a whole is more likely to be a country we can deal and do business with and culturally we have a lot more in common than we ever would have even if we had gone into Syria.
    You've got to be joking. The world trades with post-Saddam Iraq.

    You know who we didn't trade with and couldn't give a crap about? Ukraine under a western-friendly government. It didn't happen then and it's not happening anytime soon.

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