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Thread: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    I'm going to invoke Poe's Law and assume that this was sarcasm. Besides, a majority of Crimeans are Russian.
    As the result of Russian genocide and deportations.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    I agree that the situation is dangerous. It is the result of six years of a president whose foreign policy has consisted of drift, weakness, and surrender everywhere. The gestures of military support for Estonia show that the danger is not confined to Ukraine. There may come a time when Obama's weakness tempts Russia to do something so outrageous that even Obama can't let it stand, without openly inviting even more dangerous outrages.

    In October, 1962, President Kennedy told the nation on TV what steps he was taking in response to the Soviet Union's covert installation of nuclear missiles in Cuba. He was right when he said that even though the course he had just announced was a dangerous one, the most dangerous course of all would be to do nothing. He knew that if the U.S. let the aggression in Cuba stand, it would not be long before Soviet tanks crossed into West Berlin, presenting an even greater danger of nuclear war.
    Last edited by matchlight; 04-06-15 at 01:55 PM.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    I don't know why we're not talking more about the situation in Ukraine on this site.

    A few days ago, I responded to one of the threads by wondering aloud whether Putin was going to put up with the West encroaching on a former Soviet satellite. I compared the situation to Georgia a few years ago, when the Russians went in. In fact, that was at an Olympics as well if I recall.

    It turns out I was right, and I'm not happy to say that.

    Anyway, I have learned to generally ignore the news, but after hearing the Russian military is now in Crimea I have sat up and taken notice.

    If you watch Obama's press conference addressing the issue, he looks visibly shaken and maybe even scared. And he probably should be, this is the biggest moment in his presidency.

    This is much more important than Obamacare, more important than Benghazi, any of that trivial stuff.

    I'm going to put it bluntly. I'd say there's about a 15% chance that this situation causes World War 3. It's literally that serious.

    What you have to do is look at it from Russia's perspective. If Ukraine goes westward, joins the EU, joins NATO.... all things the Russians fear.... then it's essentially Russia admitting defeat. It's Russia's sphere of influence shrinking for all the world to see.

    That may not be a forgivable offense in the eyes of the Russian people. That might mean Putin's head on the chopping block, and you can bet your ass he sees it that way too.

    Not only are the soldiers in Ukraine, a Russian spy ship just docked in Cuba 100 miles from Miami. The ship poses no harm, but it sends a message and I think that message is loud and clear and you don't need me to spell it out for you.

    The fact that Russian soldiers are somewhat covertly in the Russian section of Crimea should tell you one thing: it's not a full-blown attack, the Russians are dipping their toes in the water to feel it out.

    They're waiting. Waiting to see what Obama and the West do in response. Testing us.

    Show weakness and the Russians will simply take Ukraine. That will have catastrophic consequences. We would never be able to turn a satellite country our way again, because they would know they aren't protected. It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

    To fail to do so would strengthen Moscow and weaken Washington in a way we haven't seen since the 70's. The world does not need that. On the other hand, we must at all costs avoid backing Russia in to a corner they can't get out of, because if Putin must fight a war to maintain the status quo in terms of balance of power then I'm not so sure we can discount that possibility. We all know how catastrophic that could be for both sides.

    So this should concern you. You should pay attention to this situation as it unfolds. It may all fizzle out and amount to nothing, let's hope it does, but it has the potential to change the world in ways we can't begin to comprehend.
    The only thing that worries me about the situation in Ukraine is cock sucking piece of **** neocons trying to pull us into a war with Russia.What goes on between Ukraine and Russia is none of our ****ing business. The lives of our troops and tax dollars of the American tax payers are more important than the Russians and Ukrainians and piece of **** republican trying to line their pockets with money from the military industrial complex.
    "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murder is less to fear"

    Cicero Marcus Tullius

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    I don't know why we're not talking more about the situation in Ukraine on this site.

    A few days ago, I responded to one of the threads by wondering aloud whether Putin was going to put up with the West encroaching on a former Soviet satellite. I compared the situation to Georgia a few years ago, when the Russians went in. In fact, that was at an Olympics as well if I recall.

    It turns out I was right, and I'm not happy to say that.

    Anyway, I have learned to generally ignore the news, but after hearing the Russian military is now in Crimea I have sat up and taken notice.

    If you watch Obama's press conference addressing the issue, he looks visibly shaken and maybe even scared. And he probably should be, this is the biggest moment in his presidency.

    This is much more important than Obamacare, more important than Benghazi, any of that trivial stuff.

    I'm going to put it bluntly. I'd say there's about a 15% chance that this situation causes World War 3. It's literally that serious.

    What you have to do is look at it from Russia's perspective. If Ukraine goes westward, joins the EU, joins NATO.... all things the Russians fear.... then it's essentially Russia admitting defeat. It's Russia's sphere of influence shrinking for all the world to see.

    That may not be a forgivable offense in the eyes of the Russian people. That might mean Putin's head on the chopping block, and you can bet your ass he sees it that way too.

    Not only are the soldiers in Ukraine, a Russian spy ship just docked in Cuba 100 miles from Miami. The ship poses no harm, but it sends a message and I think that message is loud and clear and you don't need me to spell it out for you.

    The fact that Russian soldiers are somewhat covertly in the Russian section of Crimea should tell you one thing: it's not a full-blown attack, the Russians are dipping their toes in the water to feel it out.

    They're waiting. Waiting to see what Obama and the West do in response. Testing us.

    Show weakness and the Russians will simply take Ukraine. That will have catastrophic consequences. We would never be able to turn a satellite country our way again, because they would know they aren't protected. It's no coincidence that the Ukrainians are asking the UK and the US for protection... and we must give it to them.

    To fail to do so would strengthen Moscow and weaken Washington in a way we haven't seen since the 70's. The world does not need that. On the other hand, we must at all costs avoid backing Russia in to a corner they can't get out of, because if Putin must fight a war to maintain the status quo in terms of balance of power then I'm not so sure we can discount that possibility. We all know how catastrophic that could be for both sides.

    So this should concern you. You should pay attention to this situation as it unfolds. It may all fizzle out and amount to nothing, let's hope it does, but it has the potential to change the world in ways we can't begin to comprehend.
    Well I totally disagree. First of all, several years ago when both Russia and the EU/US were courting Ukrainian economic treaties, Russia asked, and offered why does it have to be a two way deal. Why can't Russia and the West form trade deals with Ukraine. But the West rejected that. Just like when Russia offered the Bush administration to place its missile defence in Poland with joint Russian/NATO monitoring. That too was rejected. You state that we need to view this from Russia's perspective, and then you dismiss their perspective. Germany, France, Russia and China have all stated that a uni-polar world is a threat to global security. The senior fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations have agreed, and argued that global power needs to be shared. The US along with a bunch of high testosterone knuckle dragging, pro-war romantics, living in the hey day of US super power, aren't content with that. You seem to think that we need to confront Russia militarily. But in 2002, in the theme of denying the US global hegemony, China and Russia formed an alliance, and they have largely stood together, against the US in the ME. China has also criticised the US for its interference in Kiev. And recent USFP is pushing Russia and China closer together. Another point that the CFR is arguing is that the economic war (call it what it is) that the West is waging against Russia is forcing Russia to look East for credit and trade, which is also going to be a backfire.

    You may push your 15% chance for world World War Three, but I can assure you that it won't look anything like World War Two. Nor will it look anything like taking on Hussein or Gaddafi. Be careful what you wish for. Putin has been giving speeches for years now on the subject of NATO's eastward expansion, and has drawn a red line! Cross it at yours and my peril.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Well I totally disagree. First of all, several years ago when both Russia and the EU/US were courting Ukrainian economic treaties, Russia asked, and offered why does it have to be a two way deal. Why can't Russia and the West form trade deals with Ukraine. But the West rejected that. Just like when Russia offered the Bush administration to place its missile defence in Poland with joint Russian/NATO monitoring. That too was rejected. You state that we need to view this from Russia's perspective, and then you dismiss their perspective. Germany, France, Russia and China have all stated that a uni-polar world is a threat to global security. The senior fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations have agreed, and argued that global power needs to be shared. The US along with a bunch of high testosterone knuckle dragging, pro-war romantics, living in the hey day of US super power, aren't content with that. You seem to think that we need to confront Russia militarily. But in 2002, in the theme of denying the US global hegemony, China and Russia formed an alliance, and they have largely stood together, against the US in the ME. China has also criticised the US for its interference in Kiev. And recent USFP is pushing Russia and China closer together. Another point that the CFR is arguing is that the economic war (call it what it is) that the West is waging against Russia is forcing Russia to look East for credit and trade, which is also going to be a backfire.

    You may push your 15% chance for world World War Three, but I can assure you that it won't look anything like World War Two. Nor will it look anything like taking on Hussein or Gaddafi. Be careful what you wish for. Putin has been giving speeches for years now on the subject of NATO's eastward expansion, and has drawn a red line! Cross it at yours and my peril.
    You quoted a post I made several months ago. Since then, the situation has stabilized a bit, and I don't think we're at such a high risk of war as we were when the situation first broke out.

    That said, your perspective is a bit confusing to me. You talk about not wanting a "uni-polar world," and then a couple sentences later you claim "the West" is waging economic warfare against Russia.

    "The West" is not unipolar, it is comprised of several different countries bound together by similar economic and philosophical ideas. Same with NATO... which you see as a threat... NATO is not unipolar, it's an alliance of several Western nations against global threats. True, the United States is the largest and most powerful member of the Western World, but it's hardly the only voice in the room.

    What I don't understand is why Russia, under its current leadership, feels the need in the first place to be a polarizing force against the West. It seems to be antagonistic just for the sake of being antagonistic. When communism fell, I don't understand why Russia did not use that moment in history and take steps to join the West rather than isolate itself against it.

    Russia should take a lesson from Peter the Great and find its European roots, and align itself more closely with the West, rather than allow "knuckle dragging" ex-KGB cold war boys to drag her back in to communist-era isolation. I think Gorbachev and Yeltsin were on the right path, unfortunately Putin has reversed it.

    Russia should seek closer ties to the West. It should seek to integrate its economy more closely with the greater global economy, as China has succeeded in doing. Russia should embrace its European side and seek to work more closely with the EU and NATO, perhaps even joining these organizations one day.

    This, to me, is the formula for success for Russia. I don't think Russia vs the West is a game the Russians can realistically win, nor is it a necessary battle that has to be fought. Many within Russia see themselves as European, your greatest leader - Peter the Great - was so precisely because he "Westernized" Russia, so my question is... why, in the post-communist era, can't Russia have another leader like Peter the Great who brings Russia in to the 21'st century?

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    You quoted a post I made several months ago. Since then, the situation has stabilized a bit, and I don't think we're at such a high risk of war as we were when the situation first broke out.

    That said, your perspective is a bit confusing to me. You talk about not wanting a "uni-polar world," and then a couple sentences later you claim "the West" is waging economic warfare against Russia.

    "The West" is not unipolar, it is comprised of several different countries bound together by similar economic and philosophical ideas. Same with NATO... which you see as a threat... NATO is not unipolar, it's an alliance of several Western nations against global threats. True, the United States is the largest and most powerful member of the Western World, but it's hardly the only voice in the room.

    What I don't understand is why Russia, under its current leadership, feels the need in the first place to be a polarizing force against the West. It seems to be antagonistic just for the sake of being antagonistic. When communism fell, I don't understand why Russia did not use that moment in history and take steps to join the West rather than isolate itself against it.

    Russia should take a lesson from Peter the Great and find its European roots, and align itself more closely with the West, rather than allow "knuckle dragging" ex-KGB cold war boys to drag her back in to communist-era isolation. I think Gorbachev and Yeltsin were on the right path, unfortunately Putin has reversed it.

    Russia should seek closer ties to the West. It should seek to integrate its economy more closely with the greater global economy, as China has succeeded in doing. Russia should embrace its European side and seek to work more closely with the EU and NATO, perhaps even joining these organizations one day.

    This, to me, is the formula for success for Russia. I don't think Russia vs the West is a game the Russians can realistically win, nor is it a necessary battle that has to be fought. Many within Russia see themselves as European, your greatest leader - Peter the Great - was so precisely because he "Westernized" Russia, so my question is... why, in the post-communist era, can't Russia have another leader like Peter the Great who brings Russia in to the 21'st century?
    Lol. I'm sorry. I hadn't even noticed the date on it PG.

    There is only one superpower. That's a uni-polar world. And the US is using that power, leaning on hesitant European countries (not all of them) to lean on Russia in such a way that hurts themselves a bit. Otherwise, your still not looking at things from a Russian perspective, otherwise you'd see that they are responding to US Western actions.

    From the Council on Foreign Relations.

    According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the argument goes, annexed Crimea out of a long-standing desire to resuscitate the Soviet empire, and he may eventually go after the rest of Ukraine, as well as other countries in eastern Europe. In this view, the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 merely provided a pretext for Putin’s decision to order Russian forces to seize part of Ukraine.

    But this account is wrong: the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West. At the same time, the EU’s expansion eastward and the West’s backing of the pro-democracy movement in Ukraine -- beginning with the Orange Revolution in 2004 -- were critical elements, too. Since the mid-1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement, and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion. For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected and pro-Russian president -- which he rightly labeled a “coup” -- was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a peninsula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to destabilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West.
    Last edited by Montecresto; 04-07-15 at 05:15 PM.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by jamesrage View Post
    The only thing that worries me about the situation in Ukraine is cock sucking piece of **** neocons trying to pull us into a war with Russia.What goes on between Ukraine and Russia is none of our ****ing business. The lives of our troops and tax dollars of the American tax payers are more important than the Russians and Ukrainians and piece of **** republican trying to line their pockets with money from the military industrial complex.
    If the United States sent troops in to conquer Mexico, would you expect the global community to stand idly by and do nothing? Ukraine is a sovereign European nation, and Ukrainians deserve the right to live in peace and not under the threat of Russian occupation.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Lol. I'm sorry. I hadn't even noticed the date on it PG.

    There is only one superpower. That's a uni-polar world. And the US is using that power, leaning on hesitant European countries (not all of them) to lean on Russia in such a way that hurts themselves a bit. Otherwise, your still not looking at things from a Russian perspective, otherwise you'd see that they are responding to US Western actions.

    From the Council on Foreign Relations.

    According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the argument goes, annexed Crimea out of a long-standing desire to resuscitate the Soviet empire, and he may eventually go after the rest of Ukraine, as well as other countries in eastern Europe. In this view, the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 merely provided a pretext for Putin’s decision to order Russian forces to seize part of Ukraine.

    But this account is wrong: the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West. At the same time, the EU’s expansion eastward and the West’s backing of the pro-democracy movement in Ukraine -- beginning with the Orange Revolution in 2004 -- were critical elements, too. Since the mid-1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement, and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion. For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected and pro-Russian president -- which he rightly labeled a “coup” -- was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a peninsula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to destabilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West.
    No worries on the date, it's an interesting conversation to have nonetheless.

    I agree, I probably do see things from a Western point of view, as I've lived my entire life in the Western World. That said, a couple things from your response stand out to me.

    First, why do we look at things from the paradigm of "Russia vs the West?" Why does there necessarily have to be a conflict, when Russia has historical ties to the West to begin with?

    What about the Ukrainian's rights to determine their own future? Shouldn't they be allowed to decide for themselves what they want, rather than simply being a pawn in a larger, meaningless game between the West and Russia?

    I liken it to the Cuba situation back in the 60's... only that time it was the United States that was on the wrong side of history. The US should never have attempted to overthrow Castro and subvert the Cuban alliance with Russia - as it was up to the Cubans to decide their own future. It's the same today with Ukraine.

    As for the US being the only superpower, it depends how you define "superpower," and regardless, the status quo doesn't change despite what happens in Ukraine. If you're using the traditional definition of a superpower - military, economic, and cultural power - then the only way Russia or the EU or China can challenge the US as a superpower would be to build up militarily, economically, and culturally to the level of the Americans. Russia and China don't have the money to build up militarily, and the EU, largely comprised of NATO members, doesn't see the need to.

    On the economic front, China and the EU are on the right path, with the EU matching the US. The only way Russia can catch up is if they somehow integrate better with the world economy.... spats such as the one in Ukraine don't really help in that cause although it can quickly be reversed if the desire is there to do so. Isolation hurts Russia's economy.

    So, again, I come back to the question - why has Russia changed course under Putin and decided to isolate itself from the West, rather than do what would be most beneficial economically and align itself with it? Or at least with the parts of Western culture it agrees with? Why are we operating under this foolish paradigm that the world has to be divided up as "the west" vs "Russia?"

    The cold war is over. We should start acting like it.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    No worries on the date, it's an interesting conversation to have nonetheless.

    I agree, I probably do see things from a Western point of view, as I've lived my entire life in the Western World. That said, a couple things from your response stand out to me.

    First, why do we look at things from the paradigm of "Russia vs the West?" Why does there necessarily have to be a conflict, when Russia has historical ties to the West to begin with?

    What about the Ukrainian's rights to determine their own future? Shouldn't they be allowed to decide for themselves what they want, rather than simply being a pawn in a larger, meaningless game between the West and Russia?

    I liken it to the Cuba situation back in the 60's... only that time it was the United States that was on the wrong side of history. The US should never have attempted to overthrow Castro and subvert the Cuban alliance with Russia - as it was up to the Cubans to decide their own future. It's the same today with Ukraine.

    As for the US being the only superpower, it depends how you define "superpower," and regardless, the status quo doesn't change despite what happens in Ukraine. If you're using the traditional definition of a superpower - military, economic, and cultural power - then the only way Russia or the EU or China can challenge the US as a superpower would be to build up militarily, economically, and culturally to the level of the Americans. Russia and China don't have the money to build up militarily, and the EU, largely comprised of NATO members, doesn't see the need to.

    On the economic front, China and the EU are on the right path, with the EU matching the US. The only way Russia can catch up is if they somehow integrate better with the world economy.... spats such as the one in Ukraine don't really help in that cause although it can quickly be reversed if the desire is there to do so. Isolation hurts Russia's economy.

    So, again, I come back to the question - why has Russia changed course under Putin and decided to isolate itself from the West, rather than do what would be most beneficial economically and align itself with it? Or at least with the parts of Western culture it agrees with? Why are we operating under this foolish paradigm that the world has to be divided up as "the west" vs "Russia?"

    The cold war is over. We should start acting like it.
    To the bolded. First of all, to be a good negotiator, you have to be able to see things from the others perspective. And you're the one that suggested that we need to see this from a Russian perspective, and then went on to explain it from a Western perspective. As to why does this need to be a West verses Russia deal, well that's the very point I made. It was Russia that extended the hand of compromise and cooperation, only to have it slapped down. They said that if the NATO MD was truly just defensive, and to protect NATO countries from NK, Iran and others, then demonstrate that by sharing the monitoring with Russia. But no, that was rejected. Concerning Ukraine, Russia asked early on, why does the negotiations have to be just Ukraine/West or just Ukraine/Russia. Why can't three way trade deals be negotiated with Ukraine. That too was dismissed.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    If the United States sent troops in to conquer Mexico, would you expect the global community to stand idly by and do nothing? Ukraine is a sovereign European nation, and Ukrainians deserve the right to live in peace and not under the threat of Russian occupation.
    Not at the expense of American lives and tax dollars. You may be eager for your son or daughter to go die for Ukraine and Russia and grandchildren to be debt to pay for this nonsense I however do not.
    "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murder is less to fear"

    Cicero Marcus Tullius

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