View Poll Results: You worried?

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  • Yes

    49 49.00%
  • No

    45 45.00%
  • I'm buying my marshmallows

    6 6.00%
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Thread: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

  1. #171
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by SBu View Post
    I can't agree more. This is quite the pickle. Putin has drawn a line in the sand. This is such an affront to the international community that I don't see how relations can return to normal, at least not while Putin is in charge. Even Russia's government has requested Putin withdraw its US ambassador, although I'm not sure if he has or not yet.

    I don't think this is going to lead to anything kinetic outside of Ukraine, but the distrust that has been simmering underneath the surface is overflowing at this point. Could easily become another Cold War. It's anyone's guess what Obama is going to do about it, but I do know for certain Putin doesn't give a damn because he doesn't respect Obama and he correctly diagnoses the West as nations that are more concerned about political correctness and diversity than growing a pair and standing up to him. Not to mention he controls significant fossil fuel assets that Europe relies on. Scary indeed.

    One can't help but think about parallels to the rise of Nazism in Germany. Germany wasn't completely beaten in WW1. Russia wasn't completely beaten in the Cold War. Many Germans felt humiliated after WW1. Many Russians no doubt felt the same after the fall of the Soviet Union. Hitler came to prominence in a campaign to restore Germany's prestige and military. Putin is pursuing a similar course in Russia. Both states became progressively autocratic leading up to offensive military action. Germany viewed areas with ethnic German populations as part of greater Germany. Apparently Russia views areas with ethnic Russians as part of Russia. Germany engaged in military buildup prior to war. Russia has been building up its military in recent years. Apparently the time from defeat to fascist militarism is approximately 20-25 years. 20 years in Germany's case, 25ish years for Russia.

    Edit: Oh, and both countries hosted Olympics before getting offensive. History does like to repeat itself.
    We have no reason beyond blind optimism and hope to believe that this situation will be limited to the Ukraine.

  2. #172
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    Then on what possible basis do you go Chicken Little on Ukraine?
    Read OP.

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    BBC News - Ukraine crisis in maps

    The more I study this situation, the more I believe that the optimal solution would be to peacefully split Ukraine into two separate countries.

    The people of Eastern Ukraine, especially Crimeans, prefer close ties with Russia. Russia wants to keep Ukraine, particularly Crimea, as an ally.
    The people of Western Ukraine prefer close ties with the EU. The EU would likely welcome Ukraine as a new partner.

    Also, I feel that Russia would get the better end of this deal, because most of the strategic ports and economic reserves--which is what they really want--lie in Eastern Ukraine.
    From what I know of the Ukraine, its a mistake to assume just because someone speaks Russian they are more allied with Russia than with an independent Ukraine. The nation really isnt a typical one divided by language and ethnic identification... Ukrainians identify as Ukranians despite the fact they may primarily speak Russian. Ukranian and Russian are similar languages, and I would guess that most Ukrainian speakers understand Russian quite well. (not sure about the reverse, as Russian is much more common than Ukrainian in all sorts of areas).
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by shrubnose View Post
    I disagree.

    Not only will this not result in WWIII, It is very unlikely that any other countries will get directly involved in this dust-up
    15 percent means there's an 85 percent chance it won't happen. So I agree, it's not the most likely scenario but it is still possible.

  5. #175
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    There is no reason to believe this will lead to war. Putin's bluff will be called and he will back down. He can't on one hand be part of the world of nations and still get away with his KGB thuggery. He will be isolated and alone if he continues this. Once that becomes clear he will cower like the coward he is.
    Russia already took Crimea which is a part of Ukraine. Ukraine's integrity has been broken and ensurers that it would not come to this were USA, UK, and Russia in a treaty to lay of atomic bombs.

    So to answer your question: This already is war. It also challenges the ensurers of that treaty. Should they back down it would go down history that there can be no gain in treaties with UK and USA for future countries.

    Hopefully some start crunching some teeth and and push Putin back to your "cowardness." If nothing gets done it would appear that we are cowards instead.
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  6. #176
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    From what I know of the Ukraine, its a mistake to assume just because someone speaks Russian they are more allied with Russia than with an independent Ukraine. The nation really isnt a typical one divided by language and ethnic identification... Ukrainians identify as Ukranians despite the fact they may primarily speak Russian. Ukranian and Russian are similar languages, and I would guess that most Ukrainian speakers understand Russian quite well. (not sure about the reverse, as Russian is much more common than Ukrainian in all sorts of areas).
    I agree that mere cultural or language division should not be grounds for splitting a country. If we were to follow that logic to its natural conclusion, the the whole world would be reduced to independent tribes--until, of course, another conqueror came along and gobbled them up.

    But the situation is much more dire than that. Western Ukrainians apparently feel that they have just ousted a corrupt ruler and given themselves a better chance at allying with the West, whereas Eastern Ukrainians seem to be highly dissatisfied with this move. Plus, it appears to me that the main parts that Russia wants to control lie in Eastern Ukraine anyway.

    In crises such as these, dividing a country into two separate parts can significantly relieve the growing instability.
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  7. #177
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    15 percent means there's an 85 percent chance it won't happen.
    So I agree, it's not the most likely scenario but it is still possible.




    I agree that it's possible, but let's hope that it doesn't happen. This is just another place where the USA could waste a lot of lives and money and achieve nothing.

    The Ukrainians created this mess, let them clean it up

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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by DDD View Post
    Russia already took Crimea which is a part of Ukraine. Ukraine's integrity has been broken and ensurers that it would not come to this were USA, UK, and Russia in a treaty to lay of atomic bombs.

    So to answer your question: This already is war. It also challenges the ensurers of that treaty. Should they back down it would go down history that there can be no gain in treaties with UK and USA for future countries.

    Hopefully some start crunching some teeth and and push Putin back to your "cowardness." If nothing gets done it would appear that we are cowards instead.
    I was just reading about this.

    The treaty that withdrew all nukes from the Ukraine had a stipulation in it that Ukraine would never be attacked by the signers - the West and Russia. That treaty is broken- or on the verge of it.

    This is concerning because of future treaties that could be devised with nuclear disarmament.
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  9. #179
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phys251 View Post
    I agree that mere cultural or language division should not be grounds for splitting a country. If we were to follow that logic to its natural conclusion, the the whole world would be reduced to independent tribes--until, of course, another conqueror came along and gobbled them up.

    But the situation is much more dire than that. Western Ukrainians apparently feel that they have just ousted a corrupt ruler and given themselves a better chance at allying with the West, whereas Eastern Ukrainians seem to be highly dissatisfied with this move. Plus, it appears to me that the main parts that Russia wants to control lie in Eastern Ukraine anyway.

    In crises such as these, dividing a country into two separate parts can significantly relieve the growing instability.
    Yeah that's what the Germans said about Czechoslovakia in 1938. Then of course they needed their corridor to connect to Danzig. and before that they had to reunite with their fellow German speaking friends, the Austrians. Course what the people thought who were living there was not important. Those who spoke out faced armed men who told them to shut up and go home (hmm kinda like the Crimea right now)
    Dividing Ukraine will only wet Putin's appetite. Back in the 1930's the term was "appeasement" as if somehow giving a megalomaniac corrupt dictator what he wants will satisfy his appetite for more.
    Didn't work then and I seriously doubt it will work now.
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  10. #180
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by shrubnose View Post
    I agree that it's possible, but let's hope that it doesn't happen. This is just another place where the USA could waste a lot of lives and money and achieve nothing.

    The Ukrainians created this mess, let them clean it up
    I do think it is a bit one sided to lay the fault at the feet of Ukraine. Putin alone is responsible for raising the stakes to include military. This is a situation that Russia could have handled politically and diplomatically over time if it wanted to resolve it peacefully. It is pretty clear that peace is not first and foremost in Putin's mind.

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