I'm buying my marshmallows
We have no business going into the Ukraine. If we go, it ought to come with a bill. We should never get involved in anyone's internal struggles unless we're getting paid for it.
To expect NATO to act on this kind of event is nonsense at it's finest.
Last edited by MoSurveyor; 03-01-14 at 06:31 PM.
Mt. Rushmore: Three surveyors and some other guy.
Life goes on within you and without you. -Harrison
Hear the echoes of the centuries, Power isn't all that money buys. -Peart
After you learn quantum mechanics you're never really the same again. -Weinberg
We need, though, to be a little realistic about the situation and not try to placate ourselves by letting our focus just drift toward that which makes us comfortable. We need to approach this discussion with clarity and realism.
With that said, read what I wrote carefully - I think there's about a 15% chance that this situation could spark WW3. Now that's not very high odds, but I do think there are scenarios that could play out which could lead to that end.
Now, is that worth worrying about? Maybe worry is the wrong word. It does, though, cause me to be of the opinion that we need to take this issue seriously and, as a nation, ensure that we do whatever we can to see that the scenarios which could potentially lead to a direct conflict with the Russians are avoided.
At the end of the day, this is a defining moment in President Obama's presidency. How he handles it will help shape and determine the direction of this country.
With that in mind, as educated observers of the political arena, this is a very interesting time which warrants both attention and discussion.
A slippery slope is a logical fallacy where a person asserts that some event must inevitably follow from another without any rational argument or demonstrable mechanism for the inevitability of the event in question.
I don't think I made an assertion that the downfall of Ukraine would inevitably lead to the recapture of East Germany, for instance. Just to make clear, I was asking a question... if they can take Ukraine, what's to stop them from taking East Gemany?
That's one to think about, and I'd like to hear your thoughts.
You are correct that the situations in Germany and Ukraine differ, however what you maybe haven't considered yet is how Russia itself would differ, hypothetically, were it to succeed unequivocally in Ukraine by taking control of that country. Surely they would be just a little bit bolder than before, right?
On the same train of thought, how would the perception of the United States differ, in that hypothetical scenario? Surely the world would look at us and, where in the past it was implied that we would come to the aid of our allies in need, to what extent would that faith in the United States diminish? Would the Germans, Poles, Taiwanese, etc feel the need to rethink their international allegiances given this new information?
If I'm Taiwan, or Poland, or Japan, and the United States sits on its hands while Russia takes Ukraine, I'm going to think long and hard about my allegiance with the United States, and possibly consider allying with the Russians or Chinese instead to save my country from future invasion.
Something to consider.
I hate to say that I told you so....
From the New York Times:
"SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Russian armed forces effectively seized control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula on Saturday, as President Vladimir V. Putin had the Russian Parliament grant him broad authority to use military force in Ukraine in response to deepening instability there.
Russian troops stripped of identifying insignia and military vehicles bearing the black license plates of Russia’s Black Sea force swarmed the major thoroughfares of Crimea and occupied major government buildings, closing the main airport and solidifying what had been a covert effort to control the largely pro-Russian region of Ukraine.
In Moscow, Mr. Putin convened the upper house of Parliament to forcefully denounce President Obama and obtain authorization to protect Russian citizens and soldiers stationed in Crimea as well as other parts of Ukraine.
Both actions, military and parliamentary, were a direct rebuff to Mr. Obama, who on Friday pointedly warned Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty."
Remember in the OP I said that Russia were dipping their toes in the water, not going all-in yet because they were waiting to see how Obama would react. They're getting bolder.
We MUST RESPOND. NOW.
May I suggest an actual one? Complete coincidence that the same tactics were then brought to bear against Georgia just as that country was being invaded by Russian troops?
Sure. Private Hackers in Russia. Just like Private Hackers in China.It's a fact that at least one of the people involved was Estonian and it's likely that more Estonians were involved as well as private citizens of Russia. Private hackers all over the world get involved in politics and have for decades.
So, if we build an F35, and then load it down with bombs, teach a guy how to fly and operate it, have him work for a defense contractor, give him the F35, and tell him we expect to see some crater-holes in, oh, say, this building this building and this building, well then, that's like, totally not us, right? It was private.
Actually we maintain that Cyber Attacks are Acts of War. So, by our own definitions the Russian government engaged in acts of war against a NATO ally and we.... well, we offered lots of moral encouragement at the mid-levels.To expect NATO to act on this kind of event is nonsense at it's finest.
Last edited by cpwill; 03-01-14 at 10:30 PM.
“If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures.”
- Alexander Hamilton. Spiritual father of #NeverTrump
I don't think this is going to lead to anything kinetic outside of Ukraine, but the distrust that has been simmering underneath the surface is overflowing at this point. Could easily become another Cold War. It's anyone's guess what Obama is going to do about it, but I do know for certain Putin doesn't give a damn because he doesn't respect Obama and he correctly diagnoses the West as nations that are more concerned about political correctness and diversity than growing a pair and standing up to him. Not to mention he controls significant fossil fuel assets that Europe relies on. Scary indeed.
One can't help but think about parallels to the rise of Nazism in Germany. Germany wasn't completely beaten in WW1. Russia wasn't completely beaten in the Cold War. Many Germans felt humiliated after WW1. Many Russians no doubt felt the same after the fall of the Soviet Union. Hitler came to prominence in a campaign to restore Germany's prestige and military. Putin is pursuing a similar course in Russia. Both states became progressively autocratic leading up to offensive military action. Germany viewed areas with ethnic German populations as part of greater Germany. Apparently Russia views areas with ethnic Russians as part of Russia. Germany engaged in military buildup prior to war. Russia has been building up its military in recent years. Apparently the time from defeat to fascist militarism is approximately 20-25 years. 20 years in Germany's case, 25ish years for Russia.
Edit: Oh, and both countries hosted Olympics before getting offensive. History does like to repeat itself.
Last edited by SBu; 03-01-14 at 11:00 PM.