View Poll Results: You worried?

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  • Yes

    49 49.00%
  • No

    45 45.00%
  • I'm buying my marshmallows

    6 6.00%
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Thread: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

  1. #121
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Helix View Post
    I'm concerned that the people in Ukraine are going to have to endure a civil war with Russian intervention. Also, I'm concerned that the world will look to us to fix it while doing nothing itself. It will use that savings to provide health care and infrastructure to its citizens, while our own infrastructure is crumbling.

    Here's the solution :

    1. Crimea aligns with Russia. Let them go.

    2. If the world wants an army, it needs to build and fund one.

    3. Obama shouldn't be giving ultimatums to Russia. A Mexican civil war would be on us, and Russia would have no role. This one is on the EU.

    In other words, EU, it's your turn.
    I agree. The one's who have the most to lose are the one's who need to be leading this charge. That would be the EU.

  2. #122
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    We have no business going into the Ukraine. If we go, it ought to come with a bill. We should never get involved in anyone's internal struggles unless we're getting paid for it.
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  3. #123
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Estonia took down a statue of a Russian Soldier, left there by the Soviets after WWII. The Soviets said the statue was supposed to stay there to remind the Estonians of their liberation, apparently the Estonians mostly remembered the mass-rapes. Russia's response was to launch a cyber attack that basically shut down the country. NATO's response was to say "Gosh, that's really awful. Man. Someone should do something about that...."
    Even the experts couldn't pin that on Russia - including DARPA's own security consultant. Most experts believe it was NOT directed by the Russian government and there's certainly no proof of such involvement. It's a fact that at least one of the people involved was Estonian and it's likely that more Estonians were involved as well as private citizens of Russia. Private hackers all over the world get involved in politics and have for decades.

    To expect NATO to act on this kind of event is nonsense at it's finest.
    Last edited by MoSurveyor; 03-01-14 at 06:31 PM.
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  4. #124
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by NoC_T View Post
    I'm not playing down the gravity of the situation (as far as it goes), but don't expect any countdown to global annihilation. This isn't the Cuban missile crisis. The only time WW3 looks set to kick off is where superpowers face off directly. That won't happen over bum**** Ukraine. Nobody's 'ending the world' over this nappy BS. You need a little perspective. I'm guessing you probably succumbed to the hysteria over Iran and North Korea, too. Look what happened. Not one thing. We're all still breathing. Imagine that.

    Don't waste your time sweating bullets about silly Armageddon scenarios. Worry about the fiscal deficit. Education, health care, the environment and trade. Stuff like that. Leave the placard-carrying doomsayers to their own devices. They like that ****. You don't have to follow suit. It's one small step from unfounded, reactionary hysteria to believing Kris Kristofferson drinks blood and shape shifts into a 7' lizard. Tread lightly, dude.
    I read this and all I could think is that you're trying to talk yourself down. That's an understandable reaction, man.

    We need, though, to be a little realistic about the situation and not try to placate ourselves by letting our focus just drift toward that which makes us comfortable. We need to approach this discussion with clarity and realism.

    With that said, read what I wrote carefully - I think there's about a 15% chance that this situation could spark WW3. Now that's not very high odds, but I do think there are scenarios that could play out which could lead to that end.

    Now, is that worth worrying about? Maybe worry is the wrong word. It does, though, cause me to be of the opinion that we need to take this issue seriously and, as a nation, ensure that we do whatever we can to see that the scenarios which could potentially lead to a direct conflict with the Russians are avoided.

    At the end of the day, this is a defining moment in President Obama's presidency. How he handles it will help shape and determine the direction of this country.

    With that in mind, as educated observers of the political arena, this is a very interesting time which warrants both attention and discussion.

  5. #125
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dezaad View Post
    Each one of those has a different geopolitical circumstance. You are essentially claiming a slippery slope, which in order to be valid, would require for there to be nothing to differentiate them. I can tell you, I would certainly never advocate allowing their grabbing of East Germany. Among other things, with them we actually do have a defense treaty, unlike Ukraine. (The agreement with Ukraine is not a defense treaty).

    It is my view that Russia should have never permitted the departure of Ukraine without a partition. It makes no sense whatsoever for majority people aligned with Russia to be in a country that would potentially look to the West. And Crimea should be part of Russia without question, except for one brief aberration of history.

    I believe Russia may seek partition. But for their agreement with us, the UK and Ukraine, military intervention to achieve it would even have some legitimacy, depending on the territories they seek.

    So, nope, don't see the slippery slope that you do.
    Hi Dezaad,

    A slippery slope is a logical fallacy where a person asserts that some event must inevitably follow from another without any rational argument or demonstrable mechanism for the inevitability of the event in question.

    I don't think I made an assertion that the downfall of Ukraine would inevitably lead to the recapture of East Germany, for instance. Just to make clear, I was asking a question... if they can take Ukraine, what's to stop them from taking East Gemany?

    That's one to think about, and I'd like to hear your thoughts.

    You are correct that the situations in Germany and Ukraine differ, however what you maybe haven't considered yet is how Russia itself would differ, hypothetically, were it to succeed unequivocally in Ukraine by taking control of that country. Surely they would be just a little bit bolder than before, right?

    On the same train of thought, how would the perception of the United States differ, in that hypothetical scenario? Surely the world would look at us and, where in the past it was implied that we would come to the aid of our allies in need, to what extent would that faith in the United States diminish? Would the Germans, Poles, Taiwanese, etc feel the need to rethink their international allegiances given this new information?

    If I'm Taiwan, or Poland, or Japan, and the United States sits on its hands while Russia takes Ukraine, I'm going to think long and hard about my allegiance with the United States, and possibly consider allying with the Russians or Chinese instead to save my country from future invasion.

    Something to consider.

  6. #126
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by ecofarm View Post
    And the EU has been burned by letting in too many borderline developed countries.
    The EU has been burned by poor fiscal and monetary policy. I don't see how the inclusion of, say, Poland has "burned" the EU in any way.

  7. #127
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    I hate to say that I told you so....


    From the New York Times:

    "SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Russian armed forces effectively seized control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula on Saturday, as President Vladimir V. Putin had the Russian Parliament grant him broad authority to use military force in Ukraine in response to deepening instability there.

    Russian troops stripped of identifying insignia and military vehicles bearing the black license plates of Russia’s Black Sea force swarmed the major thoroughfares of Crimea and occupied major government buildings, closing the main airport and solidifying what had been a covert effort to control the largely pro-Russian region of Ukraine.

    In Moscow, Mr. Putin convened the upper house of Parliament to forcefully denounce President Obama and obtain authorization to protect Russian citizens and soldiers stationed in Crimea as well as other parts of Ukraine.

    Both actions, military and parliamentary, were a direct rebuff to Mr. Obama, who on Friday pointedly warned Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty."




    Remember in the OP I said that Russia were dipping their toes in the water, not going all-in yet because they were waiting to see how Obama would react. They're getting bolder.

    We MUST RESPOND. NOW.

  8. #128
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    We MUST RESPOND. NOW.
    Where were you during Syria? Too late now. Stop being silly.

  9. #129
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by MoSurveyor View Post
    Even the experts couldn't pin that on Russia - including DARPA's own security consultant. Most experts believe it was NOT directed by the Russian government and there's certainly no proof of such involvement
    what experts are those? May I suggest an actual one? Complete coincidence that the same tactics were then brought to bear against Georgia just as that country was being invaded by Russian troops?

    It's a fact that at least one of the people involved was Estonian and it's likely that more Estonians were involved as well as private citizens of Russia. Private hackers all over the world get involved in politics and have for decades.
    Sure. Private Hackers in Russia. Just like Private Hackers in China.

    So, if we build an F35, and then load it down with bombs, teach a guy how to fly and operate it, have him work for a defense contractor, give him the F35, and tell him we expect to see some crater-holes in, oh, say, this building this building and this building, well then, that's like, totally not us, right? It was private.

    To expect NATO to act on this kind of event is nonsense at it's finest.
    Actually we maintain that Cyber Attacks are Acts of War. So, by our own definitions the Russian government engaged in acts of war against a NATO ally and we.... well, we offered lots of moral encouragement at the mid-levels.
    Last edited by cpwill; 03-01-14 at 10:30 PM.
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  10. #130
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    Re: Does the situation in Ukraine worry you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    If Russia can grab Ukraine, why not Kazakhstan? Why not Poland? Why not East Germany?

    This is why Obama is in a pickle. He can't show weakness, but, on the other hand, nobody wants a catastrophic war either. This war would make Iraq look like patty cake.
    I can't agree more. This is quite the pickle. Putin has drawn a line in the sand. This is such an affront to the international community that I don't see how relations can return to normal, at least not while Putin is in charge. Even Russia's government has requested Putin withdraw its US ambassador, although I'm not sure if he has or not yet.

    I don't think this is going to lead to anything kinetic outside of Ukraine, but the distrust that has been simmering underneath the surface is overflowing at this point. Could easily become another Cold War. It's anyone's guess what Obama is going to do about it, but I do know for certain Putin doesn't give a damn because he doesn't respect Obama and he correctly diagnoses the West as nations that are more concerned about political correctness and diversity than growing a pair and standing up to him. Not to mention he controls significant fossil fuel assets that Europe relies on. Scary indeed.

    One can't help but think about parallels to the rise of Nazism in Germany. Germany wasn't completely beaten in WW1. Russia wasn't completely beaten in the Cold War. Many Germans felt humiliated after WW1. Many Russians no doubt felt the same after the fall of the Soviet Union. Hitler came to prominence in a campaign to restore Germany's prestige and military. Putin is pursuing a similar course in Russia. Both states became progressively autocratic leading up to offensive military action. Germany viewed areas with ethnic German populations as part of greater Germany. Apparently Russia views areas with ethnic Russians as part of Russia. Germany engaged in military buildup prior to war. Russia has been building up its military in recent years. Apparently the time from defeat to fascist militarism is approximately 20-25 years. 20 years in Germany's case, 25ish years for Russia.

    Edit: Oh, and both countries hosted Olympics before getting offensive. History does like to repeat itself.
    Last edited by SBu; 03-01-14 at 11:00 PM.

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