View Poll Results: Will obamacare cost dems the senate

Voters
34. You may not vote on this poll
  • bye bye democrat control

    19 55.88%
  • democrats will keep senate

    15 44.12%
Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 41

Thread: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

  1. #1
    Banned
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Where they have FOX on in bars and restaurants
    Last Seen
    09-14-14 @ 02:09 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    14,700

    Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    This is really interesting and really hopeful for anti dems like me.


    "For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
    Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.


    For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
    Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.

  2. #2
    Sage
    pbrauer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Oregon
    Last Seen
    11-27-15 @ 03:31 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    25,394

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    I think the Democrats will continue to hold the Senate; by next Novmber people wilel begin to like the PPACA a whole lot more.

  3. #3
    Pontificator
    iliveonramen's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    On a Gravy Train with Biscuit Wheels
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:28 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Liberal
    Posts
    9,207

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    If Dems lose the Senate it has more to do with which seats are up for grabs. This go round there's seats up for re-election that include more Democratic Senators in red states than Republicans in blue states. Next go round the opposite is true
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

  4. #4
    Sage
    Perotista's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:43 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    17,943
    Blog Entries
    25

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by sawyerloggingon View Post
    This is really interesting and really hopeful for anti dems like me.


    "For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
    Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.


    For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
    Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.
    I would say the odds are about 50-50 at this point in time. Here is a list of those for and against the ACA in those states I have been able to find and a quick comment as to the senate races.

    1 State by state on the ACA (26 Jan 2014)

    National Average 38% for 55% against

    Colorado PPP 41% for 49% against Dec 2013 Dem Udall has seen a 16 point lead drop to 7 since November
    Florida PPP 40% for 49% against January 2014 No senate race
    Iowa Quinnipiac 25% for 52% against Dec 2013 Dem Braley had a 18 point lead in November, down to 6 today
    Louisiana SMOR 34% for 59% against Dec 2013 Dem Landrieu leads by 7 points, she had a 14 point lead in November
    Michigan Harper 35% for 55% against January 2014 Rep Land is up by 8 points over Dem Peters
    Montana PPP 31% for 58% against Dec 2013 Rep Daines leads Dem Walsh by 14 points
    New Hampshire PPP 39% for 46% against January 2014 Rep Brown is tied with Dem Shaheen
    North Carolina PPP 38% for 48% against January 2014 Dem Hagan is down by 4 to Rep Tillis, Hagan had a 14 point lead in November
    Virginia Rasmussen 48% for 50% against January 2014 Dem Mark Warner is safe and has a 20 point lead

    I have nothing on the ACA for WV, SD, AR, all three states look like safe bets for Republican pick up as of today. Alaska, Dem Begich is holding his own although I have nothing on the ACA for Alaska. It is also interesting to note that Senator's Udall, Landrieu, Hagan have refused to be seen with President Obama. They have found other business that needs instant taken care of when Obama showed up in their states.

    Will the GOP take over the senate, too far out to tell. But giving 50-50 odds seem about right at this point. The GOP needs six states, it looks like they will get NC, SD, WV, MT, AR and Michigan. They have a shot at NH, AK, LA. But in Iowa and Colorado, even though the polls have closed, it they still look like Democratic holds and I mentioned them only because of the ACA. But on the reverse side of the coin, the Democrats have very good shots at gaining KY and GA from the Republicans. Grimes in KY has a slight edge over McConnell and Dem Nunn has a 50-50 shot at Chambliss's seat in Georgia.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  5. #5
    Sage
    Perotista's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:43 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    17,943
    Blog Entries
    25

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    I think the Democrats will continue to hold the Senate; by next Novmber people wilel begin to like the PPACA a whole lot more.
    I think the people have already made up their minds about the PPACA. More than half don't want it but the Democrat's will continue to force it down the American's throat. For 4 years now I have heard the same line, give the ACA time, people will come to like it. here is a snap shot from March of 2010 when it was passed to today compliments of RCP.

    Date…......for..against
    Mar 10….39%...53%
    Nov 10….38%....54% Republicans gain 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats, Obama approval rate 45% approve 49% disapprove
    May 11….39%....52%
    Nov 11….39%....49%
    May 12….39%....49%
    Nov 12….42%....47% Obama wins presidential election, Obama Approval rate 51% approve 47% disapprove
    May 13….39%....49%
    Nov 13….39%....53%
    Today…..38%....55% Obama Approval rate 44% approve 52% disapprove
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  6. #6
    Banned
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Where they have FOX on in bars and restaurants
    Last Seen
    09-14-14 @ 02:09 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    14,700

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I would say the odds are about 50-50 at this point in time. Here is a list of those for and against the ACA in those states I have been able to find and a quick comment as to the senate races.

    1 State by state on the ACA (26 Jan 2014)

    National Average 38% for 55% against

    Colorado PPP 41% for 49% against Dec 2013 Dem Udall has seen a 16 point lead drop to 7 since November
    Florida PPP 40% for 49% against January 2014 No senate race
    Iowa Quinnipiac 25% for 52% against Dec 2013 Dem Braley had a 18 point lead in November, down to 6 today
    Louisiana SMOR 34% for 59% against Dec 2013 Dem Landrieu leads by 7 points, she had a 14 point lead in November
    Michigan Harper 35% for 55% against January 2014 Rep Land is up by 8 points over Dem Peters
    Montana PPP 31% for 58% against Dec 2013 Rep Daines leads Dem Walsh by 14 points
    New Hampshire PPP 39% for 46% against January 2014 Rep Brown is tied with Dem Shaheen
    North Carolina PPP 38% for 48% against January 2014 Dem Hagan is down by 4 to Rep Tillis, Hagan had a 14 point lead in November
    Virginia Rasmussen 48% for 50% against January 2014 Dem Mark Warner is safe and has a 20 point lead

    I have nothing on the ACA for WV, SD, AR, all three states look like safe bets for Republican pick up as of today. Alaska, Dem Begich is holding his own although I have nothing on the ACA for Alaska. It is also interesting to note that Senator's Udall, Landrieu, Hagan have refused to be seen with President Obama. They have found other business that needs instant taken care of when Obama showed up in their states.

    Will the GOP take over the senate, too far out to tell. But giving 50-50 odds seem about right at this point. The GOP needs six states, it looks like they will get NC, SD, WV, MT, AR and Michigan. They have a shot at NH, AK, LA. But in Iowa and Colorado, even though the polls have closed, it they still look like Democratic holds and I mentioned them only because of the ACA. But on the reverse side of the coin, the Democrats have very good shots at gaining KY and GA from the Republicans. Grimes in KY has a slight edge over McConnell and Dem Nunn has a 50-50 shot at Chambliss's seat in Georgia.
    I should have gave a 50-50 option.

  7. #7
    Sage
    Perotista's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:43 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    17,943
    Blog Entries
    25

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    If Dems lose the Senate it has more to do with which seats are up for grabs. This go round there's seats up for re-election that include more Democratic Senators in red states than Republicans in blue states. Next go round the opposite is true
    Keep an eye on the president approval ratings. It is an ideal indication of what will happen in the midterm. At or below 45% seems to spell doom and gloom.

    The following midterms happened when a president’s approval rating is at 45% or below:

    1974 Ford 42% Minus 5 senate Minus 48 House seats
    1982 Reagan 43% Plus 1 senate Minus 26 House seats
    1994 Clinton 41% Minus 9 senate Minus 54 House seats
    2006 Bush II 37% Minus 6 senate Minus 33 House seats
    2010 Obama 45% Minus 6 senate Minus 63 House seats
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  8. #8
    Sage
    Perotista's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:43 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Other
    Posts
    17,943
    Blog Entries
    25

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by sawyerloggingon View Post
    I should have gave a 50-50 option.
    That is the way I see it today. But there is 10 months to go and anything can happen. The house is safely republican at this time where either party could gain or lose up to 5 seats.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  9. #9
    Sage
    Dittohead not!'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    The Golden State
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:46 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    41,555

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    I think the Democrats will continue to hold the Senate; by next Novmber people wilel begin to like the PPACA a whole lot more.
    If they actually work the bugs out of the ACA that soon, then it will be the Republicans who will take a hit, but, then, they'll start convincing the voters that the whole thing was their idea, or that the fixes were all made by Republicans.

    If it remains the mess it is now, then it will be the Democrats who take a hit, but, they'll blame the Republicans for the continued mess.

    and, whether the Senate remains Democrat or goes Republican, nothing much will change. The same BS will continue to issue from Congress, and that august body will continue to earn single digit approval ratings.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

  10. #10
    Sage
    Unitedwestand13's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    Sunnyvale California
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 05:44 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    14,985

    Re: Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I would say the odds are about 50-50 at this point in time. Here is a list of those for and against the ACA in those states I have been able to find and a quick comment as to the senate races.

    1 State by state on the ACA (26 Jan 2014)

    National Average 38% for 55% against

    Colorado PPP 41% for 49% against Dec 2013 Dem Udall has seen a 16 point lead drop to 7 since November
    Florida PPP 40% for 49% against January 2014 No senate race
    Iowa Quinnipiac 25% for 52% against Dec 2013 Dem Braley had a 18 point lead in November, down to 6 today
    Louisiana SMOR 34% for 59% against Dec 2013 Dem Landrieu leads by 7 points, she had a 14 point lead in November
    Michigan Harper 35% for 55% against January 2014 Rep Land is up by 8 points over Dem Peters
    Montana PPP 31% for 58% against Dec 2013 Rep Daines leads Dem Walsh by 14 points
    New Hampshire PPP 39% for 46% against January 2014 Rep Brown is tied with Dem Shaheen
    North Carolina PPP 38% for 48% against January 2014 Dem Hagan is down by 4 to Rep Tillis, Hagan had a 14 point lead in November
    Virginia Rasmussen 48% for 50% against January 2014 Dem Mark Warner is safe and has a 20 point lead

    I have nothing on the ACA for WV, SD, AR, all three states look like safe bets for Republican pick up as of today. Alaska, Dem Begich is holding his own although I have nothing on the ACA for Alaska. It is also interesting to note that Senator's Udall, Landrieu, Hagan have refused to be seen with President Obama. They have found other business that needs instant taken care of when Obama showed up in their states.

    Will the GOP take over the senate, too far out to tell. But giving 50-50 odds seem about right at this point. The GOP needs six states, it looks like they will get NC, SD, WV, MT, AR and Michigan. They have a shot at NH, AK, LA. But in Iowa and Colorado, even though the polls have closed, it they still look like Democratic holds and I mentioned them only because of the ACA. But on the reverse side of the coin, the Democrats have very good shots at gaining KY and GA from the Republicans. Grimes in KY has a slight edge over McConnell and Dem Nunn has a 50-50 shot at Chambliss's seat in Georgia.
    I don't think one issue is going to decide every election, because there are other issues at play. In wv and ky for example the democrats can talk about the recent chemical spill and talk about the faliure to provide oversight on the company at fault. Michigan is no slam dunk for the democrats, but they can still put up a fight on the issue of the economy. In colarado I think udall can pull off a win by being front and center on the issue of the NSA.
    "If you can't stand the way this place is, Take yourself to higher places!"
    Break, By Three days grace

    Hilliary Clinton/Tim Kaine 2016

Page 1 of 5 123 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •