Will obamacare make dem's lose senate

[sawyerloggingon]

This is really interesting and really hopeful for anti dems like me.


"For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.


For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.

 

[pbrauer]

I think the Democrats will continue to hold the Senate; by next Novmber people wilel begin to like the PPACA a whole lot more.

 

[iliveonramen]

If Dems lose the Senate it has more to do with which seats are up for grabs. This go round there's seats up for re-election that include more Democratic Senators in red states than Republicans in blue states. Next go round the opposite is true

 

[Perotista]

This is really interesting and really hopeful for anti dems like me.


"For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.


For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.

I would say the odds are about 50-50 at this point in time. Here is a list of those for and against the ACA in those states I have been able to find and a quick comment as to the senate races.

1 State by state on the ACA (26 Jan 2014)

National Average 38% for 55% against

Colorado PPP 41% for 49% against Dec 2013 Dem Udall has seen a 16 point lead drop to 7 since November
Florida PPP 40% for 49% against January 2014 No senate race
Iowa Quinnipiac 25% for 52% against Dec 2013 Dem Braley had a 18 point lead in November, down to 6 today
Louisiana SMOR 34% for 59% against Dec 2013 Dem Landrieu leads by 7 points, she had a 14 point lead in November
Michigan Harper 35% for 55% against January 2014 Rep Land is up by 8 points over Dem Peters
Montana PPP 31% for 58% against Dec 2013 Rep Daines leads Dem Walsh by 14 points
New Hampshire PPP 39% for 46% against January 2014 Rep Brown is tied with Dem Shaheen
North Carolina PPP 38% for 48% against January 2014 Dem Hagan is down by 4 to Rep Tillis, Hagan had a 14 point lead in November
Virginia Rasmussen 48% for 50% against January 2014 Dem Mark Warner is safe and has a 20 point lead

I have nothing on the ACA for WV, SD, AR, all three states look like safe bets for Republican pick up as of today. Alaska, Dem Begich is holding his own although I have nothing on the ACA for Alaska. It is also interesting to note that Senator's Udall, Landrieu, Hagan have refused to be seen with President Obama. They have found other business that needs instant taken care of when Obama showed up in their states.

Will the GOP take over the senate, too far out to tell. But giving 50-50 odds seem about right at this point. The GOP needs six states, it looks like they will get NC, SD, WV, MT, AR and Michigan. They have a shot at NH, AK, LA. But in Iowa and Colorado, even though the polls have closed, it they still look like Democratic holds and I mentioned them only because of the ACA. But on the reverse side of the coin, the Democrats have very good shots at gaining KY and GA from the Republicans. Grimes in KY has a slight edge over McConnell and Dem Nunn has a 50-50 shot at Chambliss's seat in Georgia.

 

[Perotista]

I think the Democrats will continue to hold the Senate; by next Novmber people wilel begin to like the PPACA a whole lot more.

I think the people have already made up their minds about the PPACA. More than half don't want it but the Democrat's will continue to force it down the American's throat. For 4 years now I have heard the same line, give the ACA time, people will come to like it. here is a snap shot from March of 2010 when it was passed to today compliments of RCP.

Date…......for..against
Mar 10….39%...53%
Nov 10….38%....54% Republicans gain 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats, Obama approval rate 45% approve 49% disapprove
May 11….39%....52%
Nov 11….39%....49%
May 12….39%....49%
Nov 12….42%....47% Obama wins presidential election, Obama Approval rate 51% approve 47% disapprove
May 13….39%....49%
Nov 13….39%....53%
Today…..38%....55% Obama Approval rate 44% approve 52% disapprove

 

[sawyerloggingon]

I would say the odds are about 50-50 at this point in time. Here is a list of those for and against the ACA in those states I have been able to find and a quick comment as to the senate races.

1 State by state on the ACA (26 Jan 2014)

National Average 38% for 55% against

Colorado PPP 41% for 49% against Dec 2013 Dem Udall has seen a 16 point lead drop to 7 since November
Florida PPP 40% for 49% against January 2014 No senate race
Iowa Quinnipiac 25% for 52% against Dec 2013 Dem Braley had a 18 point lead in November, down to 6 today
Louisiana SMOR 34% for 59% against Dec 2013 Dem Landrieu leads by 7 points, she had a 14 point lead in November
Michigan Harper 35% for 55% against January 2014 Rep Land is up by 8 points over Dem Peters
Montana PPP 31% for 58% against Dec 2013 Rep Daines leads Dem Walsh by 14 points
New Hampshire PPP 39% for 46% against January 2014 Rep Brown is tied with Dem Shaheen
North Carolina PPP 38% for 48% against January 2014 Dem Hagan is down by 4 to Rep Tillis, Hagan had a 14 point lead in November
Virginia Rasmussen 48% for 50% against January 2014 Dem Mark Warner is safe and has a 20 point lead

I have nothing on the ACA for WV, SD, AR, all three states look like safe bets for Republican pick up as of today. Alaska, Dem Begich is holding his own although I have nothing on the ACA for Alaska. It is also interesting to note that Senator's Udall, Landrieu, Hagan have refused to be seen with President Obama. They have found other business that needs instant taken care of when Obama showed up in their states.

Will the GOP take over the senate, too far out to tell. But giving 50-50 odds seem about right at this point. The GOP needs six states, it looks like they will get NC, SD, WV, MT, AR and Michigan. They have a shot at NH, AK, LA. But in Iowa and Colorado, even though the polls have closed, it they still look like Democratic holds and I mentioned them only because of the ACA. But on the reverse side of the coin, the Democrats have very good shots at gaining KY and GA from the Republicans. Grimes in KY has a slight edge over McConnell and Dem Nunn has a 50-50 shot at Chambliss's seat in Georgia.

I should have gave a 50-50 option.

 

[Perotista]

If Dems lose the Senate it has more to do with which seats are up for grabs. This go round there's seats up for re-election that include more Democratic Senators in red states than Republicans in blue states. Next go round the opposite is true

Keep an eye on the president approval ratings. It is an ideal indication of what will happen in the midterm. At or below 45% seems to spell doom and gloom.

The following midterms happened when a president’s approval rating is at 45% or below:

1974 Ford 42% Minus 5 senate Minus 48 House seats
1982 Reagan 43% Plus 1 senate Minus 26 House seats
1994 Clinton 41% Minus 9 senate Minus 54 House seats
2006 Bush II 37% Minus 6 senate Minus 33 House seats
2010 Obama 45% Minus 6 senate Minus 63 House seats

 

[Perotista]

I should have gave a 50-50 option.

That is the way I see it today. But there is 10 months to go and anything can happen. The house is safely republican at this time where either party could gain or lose up to 5 seats.

 

[Dittohead not!]

I think the Democrats will continue to hold the Senate; by next Novmber people wilel begin to like the PPACA a whole lot more.

If they actually work the bugs out of the ACA that soon, then it will be the Republicans who will take a hit, but, then, they'll start convincing the voters that the whole thing was their idea, or that the fixes were all made by Republicans.

If it remains the mess it is now, then it will be the Democrats who take a hit, but, they'll blame the Republicans for the continued mess.

and, whether the Senate remains Democrat or goes Republican, nothing much will change. The same BS will continue to issue from Congress, and that august body will continue to earn single digit approval ratings.

 

[Unitedwestand13]

I would say the odds are about 50-50 at this point in time. Here is a list of those for and against the ACA in those states I have been able to find and a quick comment as to the senate races.

1 State by state on the ACA (26 Jan 2014)

National Average 38% for 55% against

Colorado PPP 41% for 49% against Dec 2013 Dem Udall has seen a 16 point lead drop to 7 since November
Florida PPP 40% for 49% against January 2014 No senate race
Iowa Quinnipiac 25% for 52% against Dec 2013 Dem Braley had a 18 point lead in November, down to 6 today
Louisiana SMOR 34% for 59% against Dec 2013 Dem Landrieu leads by 7 points, she had a 14 point lead in November
Michigan Harper 35% for 55% against January 2014 Rep Land is up by 8 points over Dem Peters
Montana PPP 31% for 58% against Dec 2013 Rep Daines leads Dem Walsh by 14 points
New Hampshire PPP 39% for 46% against January 2014 Rep Brown is tied with Dem Shaheen
North Carolina PPP 38% for 48% against January 2014 Dem Hagan is down by 4 to Rep Tillis, Hagan had a 14 point lead in November
Virginia Rasmussen 48% for 50% against January 2014 Dem Mark Warner is safe and has a 20 point lead

I have nothing on the ACA for WV, SD, AR, all three states look like safe bets for Republican pick up as of today. Alaska, Dem Begich is holding his own although I have nothing on the ACA for Alaska. It is also interesting to note that Senator's Udall, Landrieu, Hagan have refused to be seen with President Obama. They have found other business that needs instant taken care of when Obama showed up in their states.

Will the GOP take over the senate, too far out to tell. But giving 50-50 odds seem about right at this point. The GOP needs six states, it looks like they will get NC, SD, WV, MT, AR and Michigan. They have a shot at NH, AK, LA. But in Iowa and Colorado, even though the polls have closed, it they still look like Democratic holds and I mentioned them only because of the ACA. But on the reverse side of the coin, the Democrats have very good shots at gaining KY and GA from the Republicans. Grimes in KY has a slight edge over McConnell and Dem Nunn has a 50-50 shot at Chambliss's seat in Georgia.

I don't think one issue is going to decide every election, because there are other issues at play. In wv and ky for example the democrats can talk about the recent chemical spill and talk about the faliure to provide oversight on the company at fault. Michigan is no slam dunk for the democrats, but they can still put up a fight on the issue of the economy. In colarado I think udall can pull off a win by being front and center on the issue of the NSA.

 

[sawyerloggingon]

If they actually work the bugs out of the ACA that soon, then it will be the Republicans who will take a hit, but, then, they'll start convincing the voters that the whole thing was their idea, or that the fixes were all made by Republicans.

If it remains the mess it is now, then it will be the Democrats who take a hit, but, they'll blame the Republicans for the continued mess.

and, whether the Senate remains Democrat or goes Republican, nothing much will change. The same BS will continue to issue from Congress, and that august body will continue to earn single digit approval ratings.

You may be right, the senate hinges on what happens in the coming months with obamacare. So far it looks like it will just get worse.

 

[Dittohead not!]

You may be right, the senate hinges on what happens in the coming months with obamacare. So far it looks like it will just get worse.

It may or may not. It could get better too.

Do Republicans hope it will get worse?

 

[joG]

This is really interesting and really hopeful for anti dems like me.


"For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.


For Democrats, the politics of the health care law are creating a death spiral of their own. For the White House to protect its signature initiative, it needs to maintain a Democratic Senate majority past 2015. But to do so, Majority Leader Harry Reid needs to insulate vulnerable battleground-state Democrats, who are all too eager to propose their own fixes to the law that may be politically satisfying, but could undermine the fundamentals of the law.
Race-by-race polling conducted over the last month has painted a grim picture of the difficult environment Senate Democrats are facing next year. In Louisiana, a new state survey showed Landrieu's approval rating is now underwater; she tallied only 41 percent of the vote against her GOP opposition. In Arkansas, where advertising on the health care law began early, Sen. Mark Pryor's approval sank to 33 percent, a drop of 18 points since last year. A new Quinnipiac survey showed Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, who looked like a lock for reelection last month, in a dead heat against little-known GOP opponents. Even a Democratic automated poll from Public Policy Polling showed Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina running neck-and-neck against Republican opposition, with her job disapproval spiking over the last two months. These are the types of numbers that wave elections are made of.

I doubt he has done the Democrats much good in the short term and the economy would certainly be growing faster without aca. So he has reduced their chances. Will it be enough to lose? I think it would be better to work the elections and not rely on victory.

 

[sawyerloggingon]

It may or may not. It could get better too.

Do Republicans hope it will get worse?

Can't speak for reps but I just don't see how it can't get worse, it is in a death spiral.

 

[ttwtt78640]

It may or may not. It could get better too.

Do Republicans hope it will get worse?

With the PPACA employer mandate, affecting the vast majority of the "private" medical care insurance market, looming right before the 2014 election (unless the king decrees otherwise) it seems like a good bet.

 

[sawyerloggingon]

I doubt he has done the Democrats much good in the short term and the economy would certainly be growing faster without aca. So he has reduced their chances. Will it be enough to lose? I think it would be better to work the elections and not rely on victory.

On that I agree.

 

[ttwtt78640]

Never underestimate the ability of the republicants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

[Dickieboy]

The trouble with this poll is that 'Obamacare' will not be on the ballot but rather 'some candidate'. Regardless of how the electorate of a state feels about ACA the 'non-democrat' person on the ballot MUST be electable. Their electability hinging on not screwing up too badly while campaigning or having significant 'skeletons' in their closet.

 

[MMC]

Yes, Obamacare will cost the Dems the Senate.....also due to them not being able to transfer funds this election cycle from the DNPF to the DCSS. They also have not paid off their Debts from Obama party time.

This will limit their ads on air.

 

[Perotista]

I don't think one issue is going to decide every election, because there are other issues at play. In wv and ky for example the democrats can talk about the recent chemical spill and talk about the faliure to provide oversight on the company at fault. Michigan is no slam dunk for the democrats, but they can still put up a fight on the issue of the economy. In colarado I think udall can pull off a win by being front and center on the issue of the NSA.

I listed Colorado because I had its ACA approval and disapproval. Gun control in Colorado will probably take top issue over the ACA there. In Kentucky with its state run exchange, things are going smoothly and McConnell has very high disapproval numbers. Beside tea party candidate Bevins is going to challenge Mitch in the primaries which could be very bloody. I would give Grimes an excellent chance of winning Mitch's seat if this happens. In WV Capito the republican had an 8 point lead over the Dem and the trend was her way as she was expanding her lead prior to the spill. Also in WV what hurts the Democrats, maybe more than the spill helps them is their war on coal. Coal is what provides a lot of the livelihood to WV.

Michigan is an unusual case, Iowa will remain Democratic, Brown hasn't decided whether to run in NH or not, Shaheen leads all other Republicans by around 10 points. It is much too early to tell, but if I had to make a prediction today I would say a 5 seat gain for the GOP. Which would leave the senate tied at 50 each and the Dems still in control.

 

[DaveFagan]

If Obamacare is an issue, then the Republican habit of stepping on their dicks, hard and often, throughout the preceding term will also carry over. Shutting down the gov't with no results except costing taxpayers billions is just one example. If they had continued, sequestration would have kicked in and the Military Offense budget would have been cut. I'm against shutting down gov't, but am 100% behind sequestration. Christie and stink sticking to the Party. "Rape" comments with poorly chosen words has pissed women off. Anti gay remarks from the Gay Blades themselves has pissed off the gays. "Wellie" accusations resulting from unemployment discussions is going to cost Repugs votes. It goes on and on. Actually, I think they will do poorly in the 2014 election cycle. I remain positive for Greens. The citizens are waking up. Maybe Repugs will benefit from Dems going Green.

 

[sawyerloggingon]

The trouble with this poll is that 'Obamacare' will not be on the ballot but rather 'some candidate'. Regardless of how the electorate of a state feels about ACA the 'non-democrat' person on the ballot MUST be electable. Their electability hinging on not screwing up too badly while campaigning or having significant 'skeletons' in their closet.

Voting for obamacare IS a skeleton in your closet. People are being hurt in the pocket book by this and people vote their pocket book.

 

[BlackAsCoal]

That is the way I see it today. But there is 10 months to go and anything can happen. The house is safely republican at this time where either party could gain or lose up to 5 seats.

Obamacare has been an albatross for democrats since the day it was enacted. The House still remains firmly in the hands of republicans elected because of Obamacare .. which includes some of the most braindead politicians in political history.

More than likely, democrats will lose the Senate in 2014, but nobody should cry any crocodile tears for them, they brought this on themselves. Obama has been nothing short of a failure .. and democrats never had to courage to stand up to him.

 

[Dittohead not!]

Never underestimate the ability of the republicants to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

They did it in 2008, and again in 2012.

 

[Perotista]

Obamacare has been an albatross for democrats since the day it was enacted. The House still remains firmly in the hands of republicans elected because of Obamacare .. which includes some of the most braindead politicians in political history.

More than likely, democrats will lose the Senate in 2014, but nobody should cry any crocodile tears for them, they brought this on themselves. Obama has been nothing short of a failure .. and democrats never had to courage to stand up to him.

LOL, yeah braindead certainly applies to some. But going district by district in the house there are only around 25 seats that do not look relative safe at this time that anything can happen in them. 15 Republican held seats and 10 Democratic held seats. Those numbers will change as retirements are announced I am sure. So the change in the house should be more than a net gain or loss of 5 seats by either party. The senate is another story. The republicans have a realistic chance of picking up between 4-7 democratic held seats whereas the democrats have only a realistic chance of picking up 2 republican held seats.