It will work as intended, and it will be butterflies and unicorns from then on.
Adverse selection will force the government to bail out insurance companies.
Cost containment will fail due to political pressure. Costs will go through the roof.
It will never take effect. They will keep delaying implementation until the Democrats are voted out.
The whole thing will collapse and the masses will demand single payer.
Dr. Ben Casey will return and demand that doctors charge $12 cash for clinic visits.
“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. – J Robert Oppenheimer.
To keep the ACA, all the democrats have to do is maintain the senate. To doom the ACA the republicans will have to win the senate in convincing fashion. By that I mean pick up the 6 or 7 seats now held by Democrats in red states and pick up one or two seats in what is seen as democratic states such as Colorado and/or Michigan. In the house the GOP needs to pick up 10-20 seats. This has to be seen as a vote of the American electorate as being against the ACA and not against some other issue. If not, the law will remain.
Early voting in Georgia. On the 20th of October this old Goldwater conservative voted against both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton by casting my vote for Gary Johnson. Neither Trump or Clinton belong within a million miles of the Oval Office.
But what comes next is the seniors will start feeling the $716 Billion cut. Some will lose their Medicare Advantage plans and there will be cuts to some services (found in Medicare Trustees Report 2013), next will come the millions that will lose their employer based coverage. I'm sure I'm missing some things, but this is a few of the things to expect. If the law survives this long.
I think the whole purpose of it is to steal as much money as possible for corrupt assholes before the inevitable "single payer" is implemented.
If ObamaCare isn't repealed, the US healthcare market will stratify in three segments:
- The young invincibles won't be signing up anytime soon. To them, it's a just a tax. If they do have a major medical, they'll typically have their parents pay for it out of pocket or on their plan, if they have one.
- Those that can afford it will pay cash for concierge doctoring which will pretty much be as it is for them now. These folks can afford a major medical calamity out of pocket.
- Those who can't afford paying cash will have to deal with ObamaCare with it's increased wait times, poorer care, smaller network, shorter approved prescription list, and will do so for the simply fact that if they had a major medical calamity, it'd bankrupt them, not that the proposed premiums and deductibles would already anyway.
Regardless, without the young invincibles signing up, who are not signing up in droves by the way, ObamaCare is going to go bankrupt by
- Covering the medical expenses of those who do sign up, the more sickly and elderly, and
- Bailing out / paying off the health care insurance companies who aren't making profit, which is in the law itself.
Assuming that the Republicans gain control of both houses, and if the Republicans do take on ObamaCare, it'll be 'improvements' or 'fixes' that essentially hollows out the existing bill and writes a new one (possibly a more viable and financially sound one) in its place under the same name. This so that the narcissist Obama can still call it 'Obamacare', leaving his legacy in place, well so to speak.
If the Republicans don't take this track, or if Obama vetoes the proposed 'fix', the health care system in the US will descend even further into chaos. Part of me is thinking this is as intended by the liberals / progressive / Democrats, in order to promote a government run single payer system, the end goal from day one.
WRT Single Payer: The part that I don't get, with the abject failure of ObamaCare which was partial government control, how are the liberals / progressives / Democrats going to sell total government control to the electorate? I mean the US electorate is slow and doesn't always pay close attention ()after all Obama got elected on little more than a Hope and Change slogan), but how could they miss this abject failure of ObamaCare and then turn around and ask for more?
And following your own statement, D or R, the Feds are the Feds and I doubt electing Ted Cruz (or similar or Shawn Hannity for that matter) will cause the Feds to relinquish one iota of power.
1. I do not foresee Obamacare going bankrupt unintentionally. The government will just continue to shovel our tax dollars into this POS. Then they will say that O-care is a great success. (without stating explicitly how much it is costing us) They will continue to fund this because it is much easier for proponents to do than admit that they rushed and forced through bad legislation.
2. You are correct-Obama is a perfect example of a narcissist. Because of that, he will be extremely reluctant to make any changes that do not produce political benefits. Particularly, if the suggested changes come from anyone on the right.
3. Single Payer: It has always puzzled me why the Dems did not push through Single Payer when they had their chance. They easily could have when they passed this bill into law. I have come to the conclusion that there probably was substantial lobbying and lobby dollars from insurance and healthcare companies. Essentially, the Dems were paid off.
I agree with your point #1. Dems, and probably also Repubs will continue to shovel money into this POS. It must be in their DNA or something.
On #2, I guess it really depends on how hard the remaining Dems in congress, and those that want to be elected to congress, are going to push Obama on it. I can see him vetoing any 'fixes'. It'd just be delicious irony should the veto be overridden with bi-partisan support.
#3, Single payer was thrown under the bus pretty early as a bargaining chip in Obama's negotiation with his own party when ObamaCare was still being drafted.
Some of the punditry are calling out that liberalism and activist government may very well die for the next 10 years because of ObamaCare. This makes me think that single payer is gone for a good number of years, a good thing too, I think.
But it is true that the damage has already been done. The previous system is destroyed, not to return from the ashes, and ObamaCare is going down in flames also probably not to return from the ashes. So what's going to be coming next? it won't be the old system, that's gone. It won't be ObamaCare . It'll be something different, probably closer to Obamacare than not, and guaranteed that everyone is going to end up paying more for their health care insurance. Same thing that happened when government intervened itself in the regulated AT&T monopoly, the customers had to pay more. The monopoly, in the mean time, has in fact reformed itself. Tells you how wise government interference in free markets is.