View Poll Results: How accurate do you think Nate Silver's assertions are?

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  • Very accurate

    8 34.78%
  • Somewhat accurate

    12 52.17%
  • A mixed bag

    4 17.39%
  • Somewhat inaccurate

    1 4.35%
  • Very inaccurate

    0 0%
  • Other

    0 0%
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Thread: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next election

  1. #1
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    Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next election

    Nate Silver had an interesting piece up over at the temporary home of FiveThirtyEight, on the Grantland site. In it, he gives his views regarding the coverage and ramifications of the shut down. Some of this thoughts:

    That's been my impression of the coverage of the shutdown: The folks you see on TV are much too sure of themselves. They've been making too much of thin slices of polling and thinner historical precedents that might not apply this time around. There's been plenty of bull****, in other words. We really don't know all that much about how the shutdown is going to be resolved, or how the long-term political consequences are going to play out.

    So what can we say? What follows are a series of points that I consider to be on relatively firm ground. Some are critiques of the conventional wisdom; some are points of context; some concern relatively fine details of the situation; some are obvious things that I don't think have been emphasized quite enough. None of them constitute a prediction of how the shutdown is going to turn out, or exactly what the political fallout will be. But perhaps they can serve as useful guidance as you read coverage of the shutdown elsewhere.

    1. The media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.

    2. The impact of the 1995-96 shutdowns is overrated in Washington's mythology.

    3. Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.

    4. The polling data on the shutdown is not yet all that useful, and we lack data on most important measures of voter preferences.

    5. President Obama's change in tactics may be less about a change of heart and more about a change in incentives.

    6. The increasing extent of GOP partisanship is without strong recent precedent, and contributes to the systemic uncertainty about political outcomes.
    He goes into detail on all of those 6 points at the actual article, which you can find linked HERE

    Some on the left seem to be championing to the hills the notion that this is essentially the end of the Republican Party and that they've committed electoral suicide. On the flip side, some on the right seem to think that this will actually help the Republicans because people are supposedly so against ACA and are upset with how the shutdown is being handled.

    However, from reading Silver's piece it seems he has a view that the negative effect will be relatively light compared to the way that it's being made out in much of the media at the moment. What is your take on Silver's views?

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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    I think Nate Silver is pretty accurate here. As long as the shutdown ends quickly, there will be many more news cycles between now and 2014 that will make most voters completely forget about the shutdown. So I think Nate's right when he says that the effects of this shutdown and the ones in the 90s are overstated by the media. The only thing that may change this is if the government shutdown actually does last a lot longer than the shutdown in 1996, although that doesn't seem likely as it sounds like we're getting closer to a deal.
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    There is probably alot of truth in that. With elections being over a year away, I doubt this is going to be a major factor in them. We have seen, time and again, that when the issues are laid out, the one the majority of people vote on is economic issues(Nov 2012 it was 59 % considered it the most important issue, health care was second at 18 %), which unless this drags on an extended period of time won't be a factor next November. Barring something shocking, Democrats are not going to regain the house in 2014 will struggle at best to retain the senate. The polling data only really shows that people are unhappy about the shutdown and every one is taking a hit in some polls. GOP partisanship is through the roof to the point of almost being a parody.

    Point 5 is interesting but I hate trying to guess motivations for people. They tend to be complex and opaque.
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    I read that piece last night. Looks pretty spot-on to me. Even when Silver steps out of his statistical models and offers his own analysis of the situation, he brings with it a pragmatism and rationality that's often lost on both sides of the ideological divide.
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    I agree with all, but think #2 doesn't tell the full story. Though I do not think the shutdown in '95 was extremely harmful to the GOP in and of itself, it did reinforce the narrative of a GOP that was extreme and extremely partisan when combined with things like the various conspiracy theories and the Contract on America, etc.

    In a similar way, this shutdown can reinforce a similar narrative about a GOP which wants to create political fights for the sake of partisanship.
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    There is no way to accurately assess the true results of the "shutdown" because our childlike president has created a huge number of artificial shutdown results to punish the American people for not letting him have his way. Who can say what the real results, if any, might be?

    Certainly not such things as blocking off one side of the highway so nobody can see Mt. Rushmore.

    It's funny when you think about it. What a silly f'kr.

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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray410 View Post
    There is no way to accurately assess the true results of the "shutdown" because our childlike president has created a huge number of artificial shutdown results to punish the American people for not letting him have his way. Who can say what the real results, if any, might be?

    Certainly not such things as blocking off one side of the highway so nobody can see Mt. Rushmore.
    Which didn't happen.
    snopes.com: Spiteful Obama Blocks Off View of Mt. Rushmore
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Kobie View Post
    Let us attempt to retain a semblance of honesty. The Snopes article says Obama didn't cover Mt. Rushmore with a sheet held up by a helicopter.

    HA! Sounds like something he would try though.
    Last edited by Ray410; 10-11-13 at 07:47 PM.

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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Ray410 View Post
    Let us attempt to retain a semblance of honesty. The Snopes article says Obama didn't cover Mt. Rushmore with a sheet held up by a helicopter.
    Read further down.
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    Nate Silver had an interesting piece up over at the temporary home of FiveThirtyEight, on the Grantland site. In it, he gives his views regarding the coverage and ramifications of the shut down. Some of this thoughts:



    He goes into detail on all of those 6 points at the actual article, which you can find linked HERE

    Some on the left seem to be championing to the hills the notion that this is essentially the end of the Republican Party and that they've committed electoral suicide. On the flip side, some on the right seem to think that this will actually help the Republicans because people are supposedly so against ACA and are upset with how the shutdown is being handled.

    However, from reading Silver's piece it seems he has a view that the negative effect will be relatively light compared to the way that it's being made out in much of the media at the moment. What is your take on Silver's views?
    Silver is right in that the media loves to play up the "threat" to life as we know it based on politics in Washington. Love the CNN tickers of shutdown days in progress and hours to the debt ceiling deadline. Nothing like a good Armageddon scenario for CNN and particularly the breathless Wolf Blitzer.

    That said, I've seen reports that indicate there are only about 20 to 30 House seats that are competitive and could possibly change and most of those are actually held by Democrats now. There isn't a chance in hell the House isn't in Republican control after the mid-term. In addition, history tells you that the party of the President serving out the end of his lame duck term loses seats in the second term mid-term. Obama's Presidency may be historical in some senses, but not in its ability to carry favorable outcomes for House/Senate/State races.

    Whether or not the Senate turns from Democrat to Republican will depend entirely on how bad the Obamacare rollout is over the next 12 months, not the shutdown.
    "Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views." William F. Buckley Jr.

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