View Poll Results: How accurate do you think Nate Silver's assertions are?

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  • Very accurate

    8 34.78%
  • Somewhat accurate

    12 52.17%
  • A mixed bag

    4 17.39%
  • Somewhat inaccurate

    1 4.35%
  • Very inaccurate

    0 0%
  • Other

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next election

  1. #21
    Clown Prince of Politics
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Read the entire article and it made a lot of sense to me. We still have over a year till the election and people have short memories. And as Silver pointed out, there are very few competitive races in the House. Which that combined with the strong historical trend of the President's party losing seats (or at most winning a small handful) makes it very unlikely the Democrats will regain control of the House.

    Personally, I think this so called shutdown is one of the most overhyped political stories in recent history. The vast majority of the federal government is still up and running and hardly anyone's lives have been dramatically impacted by the areas that have been "shutdown". Reminds me of the scary "draconian" sequester budget cuts were all told to fear which seem to have been implemented without causing an economic apocalypse. Frankly, I hope the shutdown drags on and on and people might realize, "Hey, we're getting along just fine without this extra spending. Maybe we should make some of these cuts permanent." But I'm probably hoping for too much there.
    Slipping into madness is good for the sake of comparison - Unknown.

  2. #22
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Psychoclown View Post

    Personally, I think this so called shutdown is one of the most overhyped political stories in recent history. The vast majority of the federal government is still up and running and hardly anyone's lives have been dramatically impacted by the areas that have been "shutdown". Reminds me of the scary "draconian" sequester budget cuts were all told to fear which seem to have been implemented without causing an economic apocalypse. Frankly, I hope the shutdown drags on and on and people might realize, "Hey, we're getting along just fine without this extra spending. Maybe we should make some of these cuts permanent." But I'm probably hoping for too much there.
    Personally, I think you're just closing your eyes and plugging your ears. Nope! I can't see the people getting hurt, must not be any!
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
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    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

  3. #23
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    There is probably alot of truth in that. With elections being over a year away, I doubt this is going to be a major factor in them. We have seen, time and again, that when the issues are laid out, the one the majority of people vote on is economic issues(Nov 2012 it was 59 % considered it the most important issue, health care was second at 18 %), which unless this drags on an extended period of time won't be a factor next November. Barring something shocking, Democrats are not going to regain the house in 2014 will struggle at best to retain the senate. The polling data only really shows that people are unhappy about the shutdown and every one is taking a hit in some polls. GOP partisanship is through the roof to the point of almost being a parody.

    Point 5 is interesting but I hate trying to guess motivations for people. They tend to be complex and opaque.
    If you take a critical view of Obama's first term, it was all about not rocking the boat and avoiding political controversy at all cost. Again, the perfect example of this was his absence in the healthcare debate.


    It was like watching a boxer who's strategy is to not lose, as opposed for one working towards victory

  4. #24
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Chuckles View Post
    If you take a critical view of Obama's first term, it was all about not rocking the boat and avoiding political controversy at all cost. Again, the perfect example of this was his absence in the healthcare debate.


    It was like watching a boxer who's strategy is to not lose, as opposed for one working towards victory
    So he wasn't ramming a radical leftist agenda down our throats?
    He touched her over her bra and underpants, she says, and guided her hand to touch him over his underwear
    Quote Originally Posted by Lutherf View Post
    We’ll say what? Something like “nothing happened” ... Yeah, we might say something like that.

  5. #25
    King Conspiratard
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    So he wasn't ramming a radical leftist agenda down our throats?
    do you ever actually respond to the content people write, or do you just constantly demand that people account for the various Caricatures you generate in your head? Seriously, you're like a left wing Bronson

  6. #26
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Chuckles View Post
    If you take a critical view of Obama's first term, it was all about not rocking the boat and avoiding political controversy at all cost. Again, the perfect example of this was his absence in the healthcare debate.


    It was like watching a boxer who's strategy is to not lose, as opposed for one working towards victory
    WHile he lack of involvement while congress thrashed out the details was despicable, I wouldn't say that he sought to avoid political controversy at all costs. After all, he did propose health care reform not to mention a stimulus bill and tax hikes
    Quote Originally Posted by matchlight View Post
    Justice Thomas' opinions consistently contain precise, detailed constitutional analyses.
    Quote Originally Posted by jaeger19 View Post
    the vast majority of folks that need healthcare are on Medicare.. both rich and poor..

  7. #27
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    WHile he lack of involvement while congress thrashed out the details was despicable, I wouldn't say that he sought to avoid political controversy at all costs. After all, he did propose health care reform not to mention a stimulus bill and tax hikes
    I don't recall the exact details on the stimulus bill, but I remember his push on HC reform was vague enough to pretty much cover anything. But that entire episode made me rather jaded towards the guy, so I might be adding some dimensions there

  8. #28
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    Quote Originally Posted by Zyphlin View Post
    However, from reading Silver's piece it seems he has a view that the negative effect will be relatively light compared to the way that it's being made out in much of the media at the moment. What is your take on Silver's views?
    I think a year is an awfully long time in Washington politics. Both parties will have enough time to spin the current situation into something that best fits their own political mythology, permitting them to retain their current voter base and leaving everything pretty much where it started in terms of who will be voting for who.
    I'm already gearing up for Finger Vote 2014.

    Just for reference, means my post was a giant steaming pile of sarcasm.

  9. #29
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    Re: Do you agree with Nate Silver about the shutdown and it's impact on the next elec

    I tend to agree with Sliver's points.

    Unless the shutdown drags on until well into next year or something, I doubt people will remember it come election time. There will likely be some political ads about it, but then again maybe not...
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    Sometimes I think we're alone. Sometimes I think we're not. In either case, the thought is staggering. ~ R. Buckminster Fuller

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