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Thread: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

  1. #21
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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Do Independents, as a rule, kind of "lean" toward the party they left, ideologically speaking, or do they go with a third party? It would be interesting to know what percentages from either party have left.
    Yes, the majority of independents lean one way or the other. I use to break party affiliation down into 5 categories. They are:
    Republican
    Democrat
    Independent lean Republican
    Independent lean Democrat
    True Independent.

    The thing here is that 45% who classifies themselves as independents, actually 12% would be in my true category. That means of the remaining 33%, they lean either one way or the other. But they are not die hards or follow party discipline. Let me put the numbers to this for you.

    Republican 22%
    Democrat 31%
    Independent lean Republican 19%
    Independent lean Democrat 16%
    True Independent 12%

    I could go farther, history has shown those who identify themselves as Republican or Democrat will vote for their party's candidate 90 plus percent of the time. Whereas those who lean one way or the other while calling themselves Independents will vote the way they lean approximately 2/3rd or lets say 67% of the time. Now the true independents are the ones who get peeved at the party in power at times and then go 75-80% against that party. This brings about sea change elections like happened in 1994, 2006 and 2010. Note in 1996, these indies went to the republicans, in 2006 to the Democrats and 2010 back to the Republicans. In none peeved years, they tend to go approximately 50-50 as was the case in 2012. President Obama won because more Democrats voted than Republicans while indies split pretty much up the middle.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

  2. #22
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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    Yes, the majority of independents lean one way or the other. I use to break party affiliation down into 5 categories. They are:
    Republican
    Democrat
    Independent lean Republican
    Independent lean Democrat
    True Independent.

    The thing here is that 45% who classifies themselves as independents, actually 12% would be in my true category. That means of the remaining 33%, they lean either one way or the other. But they are not die hards or follow party discipline. Let me put the numbers to this for you.

    Republican 22%
    Democrat 31%
    Independent lean Republican 19%
    Independent lean Democrat 16%
    True Independent 12%

    I could go farther, history has shown those who identify themselves as Republican or Democrat will vote for their party's candidate 90 plus percent of the time. Whereas those who lean one way or the other while calling themselves Independents will vote the way they lean approximately 2/3rd or lets say 67% of the time. Now the true independents are the ones who get peeved at the party in power at times and then go 75-80% against that party. This brings about sea change elections like happened in 1994, 2006 and 2010. Note in 1996, these indies went to the republicans, in 2006 to the Democrats and 2010 back to the Republicans. In none peeved years, they tend to go approximately 50-50 as was the case in 2012. President Obama won because more Democrats voted than Republicans while indies split pretty much up the middle.
    Pero, thank you for being you! Keeping track of this stuff would drive me nuts! :

  3. #23
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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Pero, thank you for being you! Keeping track of this stuff would drive me nuts! :
    I love playing with the numbers and of course making my predictions.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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