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Thread: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    With the shutdown in progress I decided it was time to compare some stats today with the stats of November 2012 when President Obama won a second term.
    Party Affiliation
    Nov 2012 30% Republican 35% Democratic 36% Independent
    Today 22% Republican 31% Democratic 45% Independent

    President Obama Approval/Disapproval ratings
    Nov 2012 54% Approval 41% Disapproval
    Today 41% Approval 52% Disapproval

    Congressional Job Approval/Disapproval ratings
    Nov 2012 17% Approval 78% Disapproval
    Today 14% Approval 78% Disapproval

    The last stat thanks to Gallup is on independents since both of the major parties have shrunk while independents have gained. It is how Independents viewed President Obama

    Nov 2012 51% of independents viewed him favorably and they came through for him on Election day.
    Today only 36% of independents now view the president favorably.

    So what do all these numbers mean? I think each individual should view them and then let me know what they think. These numbers will mean different things to different people.
    Independents are often seen as the equivalent to moderates, and some are moderately confused. However, I think the largest increase in their numbers is due to conservative libertarians who can't put up with party shenanigans anymore. So as a block independents will lean conservative.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Well, I'm liberal but Independent. That is, I don't affiliate with either of the major parties. "Independent" refers to party affiliation and doesn't refer to one's political leanings. Some people get that confused.

    So as an Independent, I'm pleased to see the Indies growing. Both political parties are in teh pockets of special interests. I wish they'd wear name tags indicating who they're spokespeople for ("oil industry," "Big Pharma," "Big Corporations," "BP," etc.)

    But I don't know if those polls mean that much. Those numbers go up and down, and in a Presidential election, the Indies split to one or the other of the major political parties. Even myself....rather than waste a vote, I vote for the lesser of two evils. Or in the case of Obama, I genuinely wanted to vote for him. Both times.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?


    This is the breakup of voting systems in the world; you should note that the "First Past the Post" system that we use is not the way most democracies are implemented.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    What does that mean to you, Pero? They'll go with whoever has the best message, depending upon circumstances at the time?
    I think the part of the GOP losing 8 points and the Dems losing 4 points in party affiliation since last year means a lot of people are fed up with both parties. However at the moment, the Democrats are the least worst party. The lesser of two evils if you will. On the president, he has taken a lot of heat over the last year, IRS, NSA etc, all didn't help. But this shut down is also hurting him, but the Republican more. But this shutdown has hurt President Obama more than the Democratic Congressional Delegation. Only 36% of the indies now approve of him vs. 51% a year ago. But presidents, any president become less popular during their second term. So I am not sure what to make of this.

    I do think in the polls that show 20% blaming both parties for the shutdown, independents make up almost all that 20%. Naturally Republicans are going to blame the president and the democrats and the democrats are going to blame the republicans. I think the rise in independents to its highest level ever is they are just feed up with all the shenanigans and games being played in Washington and want the people they elected to govern and stop playing political games.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Point to one third party that gets more than about 2 % of the vote? Without that, there is no viable third party.
    Ross received 19% back in 1992 and close to 10% in 1996. But he had money to get out his message. There is not third party out there today that I think can become viable. Besides the election laws, corporation who give to both parties do not want to have to give to a third, so some independent billionaire is a must.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    I think it represents increased political polarization and disgust with political partisanship on both sides.
    yep, my view too.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by johndylan1 View Post
    Independents are often seen as the equivalent to moderates, and some are moderately confused. However, I think the largest increase in their numbers is due to conservative libertarians who can't put up with party shenanigans anymore. So as a block independents will lean conservative.
    That may have something to do with it. I do not know if moderate is the right word for independents though. I have found out that the biggest group that make up the indie ranks are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. If an election is defined on fiscal policies, the Republican Party will receive most of their votes, if more social issues are to the forefront, they will cast their votes for the Democrats.
    This Reform Party member thinks it is high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first and their political party further down the line. But for way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by Perotista View Post
    I think the part of the GOP losing 8 points and the Dems losing 4 points in party affiliation since last year means a lot of people are fed up with both parties. However at the moment, the Democrats are the least worst party. The lesser of two evils if you will. On the president, he has taken a lot of heat over the last year, IRS, NSA etc, all didn't help. But this shut down is also hurting him, but the Republican more. But this shutdown has hurt President Obama more than the Democratic Congressional Delegation. Only 36% of the indies now approve of him vs. 51% a year ago. But presidents, any president become less popular during their second term. So I am not sure what to make of this.

    I do think in the polls that show 20% blaming both parties for the shutdown, independents make up almost all that 20%. Naturally Republicans are going to blame the president and the democrats and the democrats are going to blame the republicans. I think the rise in independents to its highest level ever is they are just feed up with all the shenanigans and games being played in Washington and want the people they elected to govern and stop playing political games.
    Do Independents, as a rule, kind of "lean" toward the party they left, ideologically speaking, or do they go with a third party? It would be interesting to know what percentages from either party have left.

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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Do Independents, as a rule, kind of "lean" toward the party they left, ideologically speaking, or do they go with a third party? It would be interesting to know what percentages from either party have left.
    Good question and I don't know the answer, but I'll give my opinion anyway

    I think many independents are by nature non-partisan and not very political either. They vote, when they do vote, for whomever appeals to them more, mainly based on political campaigning and what the media is reporting.

    The rest of them are divided up among those who are either to far to the left for the democrats, or to far to the right for republicans. Some of them vote for the major parties (the more practical minded ones) and some of them vote third party.
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    Re: What do you make of these numbers when comparing Nov 2012 to today?

    People talk a lot about compromise. I don't think people should compromise on what is right or wrong.

    Democrats and RINO's are all the same anyway. I don't think people will really care about bipartisanship when both parties are out to screw people over.

    The Tea Party is the best thing that happened to the Republican Party. If the Republicans are smart, they will embrace the Tea Party ideology. If they are dumb, they will watch and see the Tea Party replace the GOP just as the Republicans replaced the Whigs in the mid 1800's.

    People don't entirely understand the Tea Party all that much yet anyway. Plus, the common sense patriots are fighting a war on stupidity versus the lying liberal media who use fear-instilling propagandist tactics to make people afraid of Tea Party people.

    There's no way for liberals to legitimately justify why they should disarm Americans, especially when proof indicates that it helps the bad guys. So, instead they use words like "extremist" or "right wing nutjob" or "teabaggers" - or daring to criticize their "intolerance" when the liberals themselves are some of the most intolerant of people in the world, hating people who don't glorify their harmful agendas.

    But we can do the same too. Calling them Left Wing Loons, or Left Wing Extremists, Lie-berals.

    ANYWAY, to answer the question about the poll numbers - poll numbers will change constantly.

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