Yes. Texas will "Go Blue". Jeb Bush is correct.
No. Texas will not "Go Blue". Jeb Bush is wrong.
I have in-laws and outlaws on both sides of the Red River. Hispanics are many times more 'texan' than the white fellas. Hats, boots, long sleeve picnic table shirts even in July, belt buckle big enough to choke the horse they never ride. And pick-ups so shiny you know they have never seen a dirt road.
Funny how 'minorities' are always listed as the reason states turn blue however they are minorities. What math do you use to make 12% the majority? fun facts for the 'loss of America' crowd- a few generations in and the guy sitting next to you at Rotary, waiting to tee-up at 'THE country club', attending the GOP BBQ with his 2.3 kids, and attending your Baptist Church is Hispanic.
Now seems to me Texas will turn blue because it is shifting to a highly urbanized population and leaving it's 'west texas ranch' image behind. Until the GOP wises up to that shift it will be fighting for the rather sparsely populated states and clinging hard to protected enclaves in the more populated ones. They will surge into power when the dems can be painted with enough political scandal to tip the scales, however like high tide, it will be brief.
There are some hard choices for the GOP, but it is too pat to simply claim Hispanics vote Dem over economics, they vote AGAINST people they think are bigoted and see all Hispanics as only coming here for a free ride. Figure out a way to let the 'social conservatives' go and show how everyone, not just the corporate, good buddy from the country club can succeed and Gonzales might become the most popular name on local Texas GOP rosters.
Ummm that's last name, Jesus will be the most popular FIRST name...
You know Repub Gov. Martinez from NM better than I based on your location. Dems run the same risk of taking Hispanics for granted. With their 27-9 Congressional District remap and the Voting Rights Act decision, I don't see a change to Blue until at least 2020, if then.
Absolutely incorrect. Also known as wrong. Flawed. Going against the data. Inaccurate.
As this map clearly demonstrates (as does every map of political Texas), the Democratic voting areas are all in Hispanic majority areas.
It correlates exactly to race:
So no. Your post is inaccurate. Every political Texas map clearly indicates anywhere there are Hispanic majorities is a Democratic stronghold. They are voting on economics purely (and they openly admit this).
Nobody is arguing there aren't middle and upper class Hispanics. The point is what does the majority do? And the answer is they vote in extreme majorities for Democrats, as every map indicates.
In 2008 Obama got 28 counties. in 2012 he got 26... that goes against the hispanics be taking over grain, but let's continue. the two counties that switched sides, Brewster in SW Tx and Kenedy along the coast near Corpus. Brewster is 53% white, non latino, Kenedy is 19% white, non latino... so a county that is 77% Latino voted against Obama last election.
Lets look at two in those border counties that went GOP both times... Hudspeth and Kinney- Hud is 19% white and Kinney is 41% white but both went GOP even with 79 and 56% latino populations respectively.
An interesting side note is Cruz got 35% of the Hispanic vote isn't linked to race very closely.
Another example of the lack of firm linkage...
2004 Kerry got 50% of the Texas Hispanic vote, Dubya got 49%
2012 Romney got 29% and Obama got 70%
So in the past Hispanics flocked to one of their own by state residence but now not to one of their own by ethnic back round... Dubya but not Cruz.
Let's look at the issues-
THE two most important issues for Texas Hispanics-
FIXING the economy 54%
Immigration reform 40%
When asked the question- if the GOP took a leadership role in immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship and the majority voted for it 36% would more likely vote GOP
Mitt's comments on self deportation and revoking the Dream Act has 55% less enthusiastic about him.
The map is very misleading, as I have shown. blanket statements without any real research are ignorant of the underlying facts. some of the biggest Hispanic growth and total are in border counties that are solidly GOP.
Fact is as Hispanics gain more and more generations in this country they trend away from their 'cultural' roots- Catholic, large families, racial purity, entry level jobs and the democratic party. They do however see attempts at limiting or generalizing them as demeaning and bigoted.
Someone in the GOP understands this, but it will take a majority to make the GOP look better to many Hispanics.
2016 would surprise me but eventually, yes.
Simply put, the GOP is in trouble. Our only hopes is hope and pray for huge democrat party scandal that causes people to lose faith in the Democrats or that people will be stupid enough for pandering to work.
The problems with the GOP are:
- By definition conservatives don't like change and digging in a heels to resist change is making us look out of touch. Then add the often angry tone we use to empress that unwillingness to budge and not only do we look out of touch, we also look crazy.
- The democrats do a way better job at convincing voters they are on their side. People vote for the party that they think will go to bat for them and stand up for their interests. The republicans are best at creating the image of being on the side corporate interests and have not effectively made the case that this by default helps average voters. This is especially so when the voters have been conditioned by the corporate culture to think of the business community as being against them, would pull the rug out from under them in a New York minute and ship jobs to China if they could, wants to cut compensation and benefits to the lowest levels, layoffs, etc. while upper management is becoming multimillionaires for doing just that while saying during election season its because taxes on corporate profits are 5% too high.
- We've make it loud and clear we see the expanding minority vote as the enemy of America.
- We've really good at insulting women by saying birth control coverage is for immoral ladies, rape is either God's will or not legitimate (which I guess means ladies who become pregnant as a result of rape weren't really raped ) and that women shouldn't make as much money as men who do the same jobs or at least not by law.
Who does that leave? Old people and the independently wealthy.
Having opinions all over the map is a good sign of a person capable of autonomous thinking. Felix -2011
Well look I agree that, ironically, (and this is truly ironic, because I think probably from mere observation 90% of Hispanic men in Texas drive a giant pickup truck (lol)) that Hispanics belong more in the GOP than the Democratic party for cultural reasons. There's no doubt on that.
Let me tell you, if you've ever had a white progressive in the room with a Hispanic democrat.. let's just say the cultural and ideological divergence in views is dramatic. There are almost no similarities. It becomes very clear one is basically a secular progressive and one is a religious, communal "more construction jobs" advocate. The differences are extreme. I mean punches would be going if the two ever leveled with each other over issues such as abortion, religion and almost every other issue besides taxing the ultra rich. It's very clear, like it or not, that Hispanic democratic voters are merely pawns of white secularists that have utmost disdain for most of their norms. I haven't met too many secularist progressive Hispanics that are serious about the secular part.
That all said. What I note with the maps, and the maps DO show this, is that because Hispanics, even well to do Hispanic professionals, came up through the Democratic channels such as above early on, they align as Democrats even when they do become professionals. Their inherent loyalties are simply not GOP even if their interests are (which they probably are, what Secular white Progressives want to do and are implementing in Hispanic districts family planning wise I'm sure they can't be fond of). They align Democratic at the end of the day. They are easily pigeonholed into the Democratic party, as you said, with a few themes flashed about on immigration and inequality and bam, they go into their voting blocs. It is what it is.
Your single election result map shows nothing you can hang your hat on. Hispanics were almost equally split in 2004, which shouldn't of happened according to your opinion. Hispanic strongholds along the Rio have changed sides in the election Republicans call the triumph of bribe- and they changed to vote FOR Willard.
Even two counties along the strip your pointless map showing the number of non white children born in the county point to as .... well whatever you think it points to had voted GOP with strong Hispanic populations, one has a majority of Hispanics.
Hispanics are not easily pigeonholed by anyone to include 'conservatives' wanting excuses for election loses. What the GOP did was pander to the 'nativists' in a rather ugly way when many Hispanics are willing to vote for the GOP.
The two biggest issues you seems so casual about, bigotry and immigration are big issues for many Americans.
The biggest issue in the Hispanic community is the same in the rest of America... FIXING the economy. Not handouts, but job opportunity.
Problem I see with those who use the term minority as if one size fits all is they think one size fits all. I never hear the fastest growing segment of immigrants being so painted... Asians....