Regardless, the Nicaragua Canal would lower the cost of all shipping in the region - Cuban cigars, Venezuelan oil, and all the stuff that travels between the USA and East Asia - starting with oil and gas products from Texas and Louisiana. And the trade between the eastern and southern USA and Asia dwarfs the whole Venezuelan and Cuban economies put together by an order of magnitude. The American "big oil" will be the number one foreign beneficiary, in the unlikely event the project will be started and completed.
No, this is not a good economic concept. This is nonsense.
Just look at the Panama Canal - who is shipping and how much:
Table 1-10 Top 25 Countries Using the Panama Canal by Origin and Destination of Cargo, FY2007 (long tons) | Bureau of Transportation Statistics
At worst they are very divided, many really appreciate what Reagan did to help initially oust Ortega et. al. from governance. It was pretty peaceful after that. Then the more conservative groups began arguing amongst themselves, dividing themselves giving Ortega who was promising, as lefties so often do, to take from the rich and give it away to the poor.
The people in power currently may think the way you do, and most of the really poor will go along to get along, but the majority of the thinking people many times agreed with their very own "freedom fighters" who risked all for them.
Why is everyone so scared of the Chinese? So they want to build a canal? We built the first one, and it continues to serve a purpose. It's not like building one canal makes them Masters of the Universe.
"He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
The only scenario that allows for the Nicaragua Canal to become a success is some huge economic boom in the region, with all existing capacities being overwhelmed by demand. OK, let's say the Commie ghouls lose power in Havana, and Cuba becomes one giant Key West. It will not result in a mad export-import rush with the East Asia. 90% of the new commerce will be channeled through Florida, naturally. Likewise, when Venezuela will recover from the current insanity, it will not turn into an export-oriented superpower overnight - it will be busy with repairing the systemic damage Chavez and Co did to its economy.
And so on.
For any potential investor, all this is a huge gamble. And: Ortega insists that Managua must have the controlling stake in the enterprise. Where is that money supposed to come from? We are talking billions and billions. Because, you know, the sovereign bonds of Greece and Cyprus are all the rage right now...
No offence to any honest, hard-working Nicaraguans - but Greece means much more to any European, American - or Japanese, for that matter - investor than the Mosquito Coast.
Last edited by Cyrylek; 06-11-13 at 10:11 AM.