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Is this blowback from Iran/Contra by Reagan/Bush?

Is this blowback from Iran/Contra by Reagan/Bush?

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  • Poll closed .
Sherman123 said:
. Ortega has been somewhat of a pragmatist since he came to power he's been talking with China.
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Pragmatism of China is even more impressive, if this is real: Nicaragua recognizes Taiwan, not the People's Republic, as "China". Beijing has no embassy in Managua.
 
DaveFagan said:
I see big interference and roadblocks by Western interests to stop this or gum up the works in my crystal ball.
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How exactly the "Western interests" would suffer from the Nicaragua Canal?
 
cpwill said:
The likelihood of this being connected to Iran-Contra is..... very, very, low.
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Yes. This is not 1982. The political descendants of the Contras have got more votes in 2006 than Ortega: he was elected by plurality, and although there was creeping "Chavezation" since then, he is not a dictator this time around, and making major decisions out of pure vengeance is not an option. The government's point man on the project, Edén Pastora, was a Contra fighter at some point:

Edén Pastora - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre

There's one issue however that is probably much under discussion in Managua right now: The canal would cut, by necessity, through the coastal lands populated by the Miskito Indians - the old foe of Sandinistas - and other indigenous groups. I doubt anyone wants to reignite passions there.
 
Cyrylek said:
How exactly the "Western interests" would suffer from the Nicaragua Canal?
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This creates competition for Western Big Energy interests, and that is Big Energy with enough power and influence to get two wars fought for OIL resources in the Mideast, and those would be western interests. Get your crystal ball cleaned.
 
DaveFagan said:
This creates competition for Western Big Energy interests.
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How? By making it cheaper to ship American oil and LNG to China and Japan?
 
Cyrylek said:
How? By making it cheaper to ship American oil and LNG to China and Japan?
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This will lower the cost of Cuban and Venezuelan oil due to reduced shipping costs making it a more competitive option against the entrenched Big Energy interest. Competition is not good for an energy monopoly. Also Cuban and Venezuelan LNG to Japan.
 
DaveFagan said:
This will lower the cost of Cuban and Venezuelan oil due to reduced shipping costs making it a more competitive option against the entrenched Big Energy interest. Competition is not good for an energy monopoly. Also Cuban and Venezuelan LNG to Japan.
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What "Cuban oil"? Even Repsol has abandoned looking for oil in the Cuban waters.

Regardless, the Nicaragua Canal would lower the cost of all shipping in the region - Cuban cigars, Venezuelan oil, and all the stuff that travels between the USA and East Asia - starting with oil and gas products from Texas and Louisiana. And the trade between the eastern and southern USA and Asia dwarfs the whole Venezuelan and Cuban economies put together by an order of magnitude. The American "big oil" will be the number one foreign beneficiary, in the unlikely event the project will be started and completed.
 
DaveFagan said:
[url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/06/nicaragua-china-panama-canal[/URL] "Nicaragua has awarded a Chinese company a 100-year concession to build an alternative to the Panama Canal, in a step that looks set to have profound geopolitical ramifications." "Nicaragua's president, Daniel Ortega, said recently that the new channel would be built through the waters of Lake Nicaragua.
The new route will be a higher-capacity alternative to the 99-year-old Panama Canal, which is currently being widened at the cost of $5.2bn.
Last year, the Nicaraguan government noted that the new canal should be able to allow passage for mega-container ships with a dead weight of up to 250,000 tonnes. This is more than double the size of the vessels that will be able to pass through the Panama Canal after its expansion, it said.
According to a bill submitted to congress last year, Nicaragua's canal will be 22 metres deep and 286 km (178 miles) long - bigger than Panama and Suez in all dimensions." Is this the same Daniel Ortega that Reagan/Bush tried to eliminate? USA interests have talked about a canal here for years, but couldn't develop enough trust to make a deal? Will nefarious forces try to sabotage this deal?
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The $40 billion cost plus the maintenance of a canal 3 times the length of Panama's make it very unlikely that this will ever be profitable or even built. It sounds like an environmental nightmare to boot.
 
Cyrylek said:
How? By making it cheaper to ship American oil and LNG to China and Japan?
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Is this not a good economic concept ??
And a good portion of this American oil is Canadian...
Things are more world-wide every day...
 
earthworm said:
Is this not a good economic concept ??...
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The idea that the hypothetical increase in capacity and competition-driven decrease in prices will somehow benefit marginal regional shippers, like Venezuela or even the economic microbe of Cuba - and not the USA?

No, this is not a good economic concept. This is nonsense.

Just look at the Panama Canal - who is shipping and how much:

Table 1-10 Top 25 Countries Using the Panama Canal by Origin and Destination of Cargo, FY2007 (long tons) | Bureau of Transportation Statistics
 
Cyrylek said:
The idea that the hypothetical increase in capacity and competition-driven decrease in prices will somehow benefit marginal regional shippers, like Venezuela or even the economic microbe of Cuba - and not the USA?

No, this is not a good economic concept. This is nonsense.

Just look at the Panama Canal - who is shipping and how much:

Table 1-10 Top 25 Countries Using the Panama Canal by Origin and Destination of Cargo, FY2007 (long tons) | Bureau of Transportation Statistics
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You do know that many shippers offload in Long Beach and ship containers by rail across the USA and then reload aboard a ship and continue and it is cheaper than using the Panama Canal. These rails might be a stumbling block for the Nicaragua Canal.
 
DaveFagan said:
I have an acquaintance that has been associated with a group trying to get a Canal across Nicaragua for twenty years. No joy. If some country had been arming and supporting insurgents/rebels/terrorists in your Country, would you do any business with them?
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I've been to Nicaragua several times in the last few years, stayed for months and got to know and talk with the people. One of the reasons I originally went there, it is a beautiful country with very nice people, was in response to something I read, along similar lines to what you apparently believe, in a Noam Chomsky book [ trying to understand the other side and their "reasoning"] and went down to check it out first hand.

At worst they are very divided, many really appreciate what Reagan did to help initially oust Ortega et. al. from governance. It was pretty peaceful after that. Then the more conservative groups began arguing amongst themselves, dividing themselves giving Ortega who was promising, as lefties so often do, to take from the rich and give it away to the poor.

The people in power currently may think the way you do, and most of the really poor will go along to get along, but the majority of the thinking people many times agreed with their very own "freedom fighters" who risked all for them.
 
Why is everyone so scared of the Chinese? So they want to build a canal? We built the first one, and it continues to serve a purpose. It's not like building one canal makes them Masters of the Universe.
 
DaveFagan said:
You do know that many shippers offload in Long Beach and ship containers by rail across the USA and then reload aboard a ship and continue and it is cheaper than using the Panama Canal. These rails might be a stumbling block for the Nicaragua Canal.
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One of the reasons I don't think that the Nicaragua Canal will ever materialize. To recover the enormous capital costs, Nicaragua would have to charge handsomely for the passage. While the Panama Canal and the American railroads - already running smooth and profitable - can easily offer deep discounts.

The only scenario that allows for the Nicaragua Canal to become a success is some huge economic boom in the region, with all existing capacities being overwhelmed by demand. OK, let's say the Commie ghouls lose power in Havana, and Cuba becomes one giant Key West. It will not result in a mad export-import rush with the East Asia. 90% of the new commerce will be channeled through Florida, naturally. Likewise, when Venezuela will recover from the current insanity, it will not turn into an export-oriented superpower overnight - it will be busy with repairing the systemic damage Chavez and Co did to its economy.

And so on.

For any potential investor, all this is a huge gamble. And: Ortega insists that Managua must have the controlling stake in the enterprise. Where is that money supposed to come from? We are talking billions and billions. Because, you know, the sovereign bonds of Greece and Cyprus are all the rage right now...

No offence to any honest, hard-working Nicaraguans - but Greece means much more to any European, American - or Japanese, for that matter - investor than the Mosquito Coast.
 
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Why is competition bad? Unless of course, you are Panamanian.
 
Cyrylek said:
One of the reasons I don't think that the Nicaragua Canal will ever materialize. To recover the enormous capital costs, Nicaragua would have to charge handsomely for the passage. While the Panama Canal and the American railroads - already running smooth and profitable - can easily offer deep discounts.

The only scenario that allows for the Nicaragua Canal to become a success is some huge economic boom in the region, with all existing capacities being overwhelmed by demand. OK, let's say the Commie ghouls lose power in Havana, and Cuba becomes one giant Key West. It will not result in a mad export-import rush with the East Asia. 90% of the new commerce will be channeled through Florida, naturally. Likewise, when Venezuela will recover from the current insanity, it will not turn into an export-oriented superpower overnight - it will be busy with repairing the systemic damage Chavez and Co did to its economy.

And so on.

For any potential investor, all this is a huge gamble. And: Ortega insists that Managua must have the controlling stake in the enterprise. Where is that money supposed to come from? We are talking billions and billions. Because, you know, the sovereign bonds of Greece and Cyprus are all the rage right now...

No offence to any honest, hard-working Nicaraguans - but Greece means much more to any European, American - or Japanese, for that matter - investor than the Mosquito Coast.
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You might want to include in your analysis the word: Panamax.
 
AliHajiSheik said:
You might want to include in your analysis the word: Panamax.
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Sure. The Third Set of Locks is being realized as we speak, and is on schedule to be completed in 2015. Supposedly, it will double capacity there. Making the Nicaraguan doppelgänger project even more dubious.
 
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