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When will the Dollar Collapse ?

When will the US Dollar Collpase?


  • Total voters
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  • Poll closed .
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

" In April 1865, the Civil War ended for most Americans. The war, and its various aspects, continues to capture the interest and imagination of many Americans who are fascinated by the battles, leaders, and strategy displayed during that conflict. Mysteries endure, too, including the ultimate disposition of the Confederate treasury."



"The trek south of the Confederate government has been well documented in a number of first hand accounts written several years after the war. The authors were primarily participants in the evacuation of Richmond and they included Confederate cabinet officials, army officers, and treasury employees. Many of the accounts were published in the papers of the Southern Historical Society, in an effort to dispel rumors that Davis took the money for himself and his family. One treasury clerk ― in particular, Micajah Clark ― provided a detailed accounting of the disposition of the funds.

An aspect of the treasure that Clark omitted concerned the fate of 39 kegs of Mexican silver dollars. These were coins that the Confederacy received through the sale of cotton to Mexico. The Mexican coins had been transported to Danville, Virginia, and when the Davis party was forced to move further south, primarily by wagon, the more than 9,000 pounds of silver would have considerably slowed down the procession. For this reason, the coins were almost certainly buried in Danville, and evidence suggests, they remain there today.

The various narratives of the disbursement of the treasury end in Washington, Georgia on May 4, 1865, when two Confederate Navy officials, James A. Semple and Edward Tidball, were entrusted with $86,000 in gold. Jefferson Davis stated in his 1881 book, The Rise and Fall of the Confederate Government, that the “transfer of the treasure was made to Mr. Semple, a bonded officer of the Navy, and his assistant, Mr. Tidball.” Davis added only that the instructions to Semple were for him to attempt to deliver the gold abroad to the financial agent of the government. He was referring to the commercial house of Fraser, Trenholm & Company in Liverpool, England. Postmaster General John Reagan, who was with Davis in Danville, added more detail, recalling that the gold was to be hidden in the false bottom of a carriage. The mystery thus began when Semple and Tidball disappeared.

Tidball, for his part, decided that the war was over for him, as he was seen a few days later heading north from Georgia, accompanied by a Confederate judge and a paroled army officer. The former assistant to Confederate Navy Secretary Stephen Mallory returned to Winchester, Virginia, where he built an elaborate house, Linden Farm, and became a prominent citizen. He received a pardon in August 1865, and in 1872, was elected to the Virginia House of Delegates. Given these events, and his extensive property, Tidball very likely profited from a disbursement of the treasury in Georgia. In fact, during a recent renovation of Linden Farm by its owner, a document found hidden in a wall confirms Tidball’s possession of a portion of the gold.

For Semple, as with Tidball, history is mute on the activities of both men. In the 1938 book, Flight Into Oblivion, by A.J. Hanna, The Long Surrender by Burke Davis in 1985, and in 2001, An Honorable Defeat: the Last Days of the Confederate Government by Williams C. Davis, the mystery of the disappearing gold was unresolved. The lack of discussion in these books is not surprising. Semple did seem to disappear into the night, "

"The evidence is strong that no one else managed to dig up the silver either, quite possibly because of where it was buried… in a cemetery area. Then too, given the volume and weight of the silver, the digging would have certainly been noticed by soldiers and townspeople, whether during the day or at night under the glow of kerosene lamps. Possibly, the fact that almost 1,400 Union soldiers, former prisoners warehoused in the town, had died of smallpox, dysentery, and other diseases and were buried nearby, could also have discouraged random digging.

"In any case, caches of the silver coins have reportedly been detected at several locations in the Danville search area. A Colorado company, hired by a private individual, performed a geophysical survey and employed pulse induction instruments to identify the locations of the silver (and a small amount of gold). With the technology of today, why does the specie remain buried? For one reason only. The coins are buried on city-owned land, and Danville officials, concerned about disturbing graves, continue to refuse all requests to dig, even test holes.

Perhaps the city will ultimately change its mind and enrich its coffers with the largest portion of the estimated $16 million in value."


History News Network
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

you didn't say it was worthless?

Context. I was talking about during a situation where you are going to trade gold for food, ammo, water, things you need to survive. But to clarifiy, outside of that situation gold is not worthless but it is very overvalued.

You're right that it wasn't a fiat currency at the time the ban started, but it became a fiat currency long before it finished which kind of moots your point....... in fact that entire argument falls apart when you realize that even as recently as last year your government was continuing to restrict gold ownership and come out with proposals that mimic the ban from the 30's.

The US dollar didn't become a true fiat currency until Nixon took us off the gold standard.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

Context. I was talking about during a situation where you are going to trade gold for food, ammo, water, things you need to survive. But to clarifiy, outside of that situation gold is not worthless but it is very overvalued.
You seem to be deliberately forgetting the context. It started as you asking why someone who says they believe in gold wouldn't trade all their dollars for it. I gave the reason that the gold would only be confiscated and replaced with dollars at a loss in times of need, and you didn't come up with a single valid point to refute my statement.

Wiseone said:
The US dollar didn't become a true fiat currency until Nixon took us off the gold standard.

Well now you're just making up your own definition of fiat currency. "Fiat money is money that derives its value from government regulation or law." By definition, the dollar became fiat currency the moment they started banning ownership of gold to maintain the value of the dollar. Even in broader economic terms, any currency who's central bank relies on fractional banking is also fiat, which again eats the dates you're quoting.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

You seem to be deliberately forgetting the context. It started as you asking why someone who says they believe in gold wouldn't trade all their dollars for it. I gave the reason that the gold would only be confiscated and replaced with dollars at a loss in times of need, and you didn't come up with a single valid point to refute my statement.

Well now you're just making up your own definition of fiat currency. "Fiat money is money that derives its value from government regulation or law." By definition, the dollar became fiat currency the moment they started banning ownership of gold to maintain the value of the dollar. Even in broader economic terms, any currency who's central bank relies on fractional banking is also fiat, which again eats the dates you're quoting.

They confiscated gold, they did not ban ownership of it, don't oversell your point, because the dollar was based on gold. How can you have a currency based on gold if you have no gold? That wouldn't happen today because the US government doesn't need a reserve of gold on-hand to maintain the value of its dollar.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

They confiscated gold, they did not ban ownership of it, don't oversell your point, because the dollar was based on gold. How can you have a currency based on gold if you have no gold? That wouldn't happen today because the US government doesn't need a reserve of gold on-hand to maintain the value of its dollar.

OK, it's evident you haven't even read so much as a historical summary of the era let alone studied what actually happened.

Private ownership of all but tiny amounts of gold was made illegal, this also included gold certificates that had been issued by the fed. People who refused to hand their gold in for below market rates as ordered by the government were fined and imprisoned. You say it wouldn't happen again today, yet Obama proposed the exact same thing last year. I'm done with this, at least until you can be bothered to take the time to learn a little more about the history of your own nation and economics in general.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

OK, it's evident you haven't even read so much as a historical summary of the era let alone studied what actually happened.

Private ownership of all but tiny amounts of gold was made illegal, this also included gold certificates that had been issued by the fed. People who refused to hand their gold in for below market rates as ordered by the government were fined and imprisoned. You say it wouldn't happen again today, yet Obama proposed the exact same thing last year. I'm done with this, at least until you can be bothered to take the time to learn a little more about the history of your own nation and economics in general.

I don't disagree with you about it, but to say they banned ownership of gold was wrong. Now when did Obama propose the same idea, do you have a link to that story?
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

I don't disagree with you about it, but to say they banned ownership of gold was wrong. Now when did Obama propose the same idea, do you have a link to that story?
What on earth is wrong about saying they banned gold ownership? Of course they did. People were imprisoned for owning gold, literally.

As for last year, reports seem to vary, the more neutral ones seem to suggest that this was something that he simply discussed with advisors and was told would only serve to hasten an economic collapse at this point, which seems like solid advice.

Let me google that for you
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

The dollar's value is solely dependent on the amount in circulation versus the productive output of our economy. Oil's value is tied to the dollar, not the other way around...

You are correct when speaking of the valuation of the U.S. $1. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. However, all I was trying to say is that the U.S. $1 and the price of oil have a closer valuation than most people realize. Never meant to imply that the price of oil alone sets the value of the dollar as the US trades so many other things. But just as many believe that the true value of the U.S. $1 should be pegged to the price of gold, many currently believe that the price of a barrel of oil remains a key economic component if not the "standard" for the true value of the U.S. $1, and you'd be hard pressed to find others who disagree with this assessment considering that the U.S. $1's value does tend to fluctuate as the price of oil changes.

Again, not the only component, but a key component.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

What on earth is wrong about saying they banned gold ownership? Of course they did. People were imprisoned for owning gold, literally.

As for last year, reports seem to vary, the more neutral ones seem to suggest that this was something that he simply discussed with advisors and was told would only serve to hasten an economic collapse at this point, which seems like solid advice.

Let me google that for you

Because it was still legal to own gold just not a certain amount of it, its wrong because its not factually correct. :/

Also, that's not a source and nothing that appeared on google, which I did as well on my own, backed up your claim. Secondly, just because something is on google doesn't mean its true. Or did you not know Hitler was Jewish?

Let me google that for you
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

Because it was still legal to own gold just not a certain amount of it, its wrong because its not factually correct. :/
It was factually correct, again, you are making up your own definitions. To claim that private gold ownership wasn't banned is like denying the holocaust took place on the basis that some jews survived. If you want to correct me, how about emailing the hundreds of reputable publications that also refer to it as a ban?

Wiseone said:
Also, that's not a source and nothing that appeared on google, which I did as well on my own, backed up your claim
OK, so why does the government force all banks, traders and relevant institutions to carry the following disclaimer as part of their regulatory requirements:

"A.) We cannot guarantee if a particular gold/silver product and/or category would be exempt from future gold prohibition(s).

B.) We cannot guarantee if and/or how the government might ban/recall/prohibit private gold or silver in the future."

Just for the fun of it, even though they are never considering doing it again? If none of the sources you looked at were credible, why did forex.com carry a warning about the impending illegality of over the counter gold trading (which didn't come to fruition, as I noted)?

The government is clearly making an effort to keep the mechanisms in place to do it again, yet you vehemently deny they have any intention of doing any such thing. :roll:

fwiw, if I was in the US and I thought the dollar was about to collapse, I'd go for ammo like others have said. It can be an investment in metals and self defense at the same time, so it serves two good purposes.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

It was factually correct, again, you are making up your own definitions. To claim that private gold ownership wasn't banned is like denying the holocaust took place on the basis that some jews survived. If you want to correct me, how about emailing the hundreds of reputable publications that also refer to it as a ban?


OK, so why does the government force all banks, traders and relevant institutions to carry the following disclaimer as part of their regulatory requirements:

"A.) We cannot guarantee if a particular gold/silver product and/or category would be exempt from future gold prohibition(s).

B.) We cannot guarantee if and/or how the government might ban/recall/prohibit private gold or silver in the future."

Just for the fun of it, even though they are never considering doing it again? If none of the sources you looked at were credible, why did forex.com carry a warning about the impending illegality of over the counter gold trading (which didn't come to fruition, as I noted)?

The government is clearly making an effort to keep the mechanisms in place to do it again, yet you vehemently deny they have any intention of doing any such thing. :roll:

fwiw, if I was in the US and I thought the dollar was about to collapse, I'd go for ammo like others have said. It can be an investment in metals and self defense at the same time, so it serves two good purposes.

If I were to say the Holocaust resulted in the death of all Jews that would be factually incorrect, just as it is to say that the 1930s confisication of gold ended all private gold ownership.

Also you still haven't sourced this claim of Obama proposing a gold confisication. The government has the mechanisms to conduct a draft as well, or to declare war does mean they have the intent to use them.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

Wiseone said:
If I were to say the Holocaust resulted in the death of all Jews that would be factually incorrect, just as it is to say that the 1930s confisication of gold ended all private gold ownership.
This is just getting silly. Guns are banned in England, sure there are some exceptions, but they are banned. Private gold ownership was banned in the US for all purposes relevant to the discussion we were having.

The government has the mechanisms to conduct a draft as well, or to declare war does mean they have the intent to use them.
It means they want to keep the option open, and will use it at some point if they feel it's necessary. Do you really think the government has ruled out all possibility of implementing a national draft again at some point?
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

This is just getting silly. Guns are banned in England, sure there are some exceptions, but they are banned. Private gold ownership was banned in the US for all purposes relevant to the discussion we were having.
It means they want to keep the option open, and will use it at some point if they feel it's necessary. Do you really think the government has ruled out all possibility of implementing a national draft again at some point?

Still no source on your claim, if your only source is that a mechanism is still in place than why are you worried the Congress will draft every male from 18-35 and declare war on half the world. The mechanism to do so is there, but its quite obvious that being able to and actually doing it are two very very very different things.

Where is your source that they are actually thinking of pulling this trigger? No where.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

Where is your source that they are actually thinking of pulling this trigger? No where.

forex.com had the warning on its website last year.

Of course, all this is completely irrelevant to the initial point which you decided to skip out on several posts ago......
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

How can we be out of money? We still have plenty of checks.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

OK, it's evident you haven't even read so much as a historical summary of the era let alone studied what actually happened.

Private ownership of all but tiny amounts of gold was made illegal, this also included gold certificates that had been issued by the fed. People who refused to hand their gold in for below market rates as ordered by the government were fined and imprisoned. You say it wouldn't happen again today, yet Obama proposed the exact same thing last year. I'm done with this, at least until you can be bothered to take the time to learn a little more about the history of your own nation and economics in general.

Provide proof of your statement, "Obama proposed the exact same thing last year" from any site that isn't promoting either conspiracy theories or the selling of gold OR admit that you believe it is true, you just don't have the 'facts' at hand.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

Provide proof of your statement, "Obama proposed the exact same thing last year" from any site that isn't promoting either conspiracy theories or the selling of gold OR admit that you believe it is true, you just don't have the 'facts' at hand.

Provide proof of any of the numerous provably false statements you've made so far, starting with your claim that gold is worthless, and ending with your claim that the government won't try to confiscate it again. My claim came from a warning that appeared on forex.com last year. Sorry I didn't screenshot it for you, but it's a useless strawman anyway as it's completely irrelevant to the point that was being made.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

Provide proof of any of the numerous provably false statements you've made so far, starting with your claim that gold is worthless, and ending with your claim that the government won't try to confiscate it again. My claim came from a warning that appeared on forex.com last year. Sorry I didn't screenshot it for you, but it's a useless strawman anyway as it's completely irrelevant to the point that was being made.


Hmmm, I never made those statements about the "worthlessness" of gold or that the government might try to confiscate your gold - other posters did.

So the President has never proposed confiscating personal gold but lots of goldbug sites, those that profit from the gullibility of the poorly-educated, posted such claims - therefore it must be true.

Your "banking regulations" also come from one of those sites and not from any federal government site. Please note at the originating site, that they do not provide the number or designation of the supposed regulations.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

It will not collapse in the foreseeable future, it will just keep dwindling.

But with time - perhaps already by the time of the next meltdown- a devaluation may become increasingly tempting for policy makers, especially if "influential economists" keep presenting it as good way to climb out of crisis (Why Not The Worst? - NYTimes.com), even though the same economists used to claim exactly the opposite (http://18.7.29.232/bitstream/handle/1721.1/63401/contractionaryef00krug.pdf?sequence=1

I don't believe you have read Prof Krugman's earlier paper all the way through plus comparing a short post with an academic paper is kinda an apples and mangoes thing.
In any case, it is not the purpose of this paper to give policy advice valid for all countries at all times. The important point is that devaluation may be deflationary, and one should be on the alert for that possibility.

I assume you got your viewpoint and the Krugman paper link from Marginal Revolution
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

We will continue to see rapid devaluation of the dollar (inflation) with the feds doing every juggling of the books to try to prove it is not. One only has to see the rapid increases in prices to realize this has been happening for some time and it is accelerating rapidly.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

I assume you got your viewpoint and the Krugman paper link from Marginal Revolution

I don't get my viewpoints from any selected sites. Only information.

The Krugman paper link I've got from my Estonian friends. There's a vendetta of sorts going on between their country and Krugman, over the virtues of austerity. The earlier paper (which I did read - it's not huge) has the distinction of being full of serious economic arguments - as opposed to political cheerleading the ex-economist does in the last decade or so.

About Iceland having recovered mightily thanks to devaluation he wouldn't shut up for years now. The problem is, it's always short blog-style declarations, nothing more.
 
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Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

When you consider how many currencies are pegged to the USD, I should hope either "never" or "not for a looooooooong time".
How about "I should hope the USD will actually get stronger over the coming years". Or is that being just a little too optimistic?
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

How about "I should hope the USD will actually get stronger over the coming years". Or is that being just a little too optimistic?

Nope, and I think it will become stronger - of course, I say this because it's been drastically weakened over the past 12 years or so. It's like the stock market - once it goes down enough, it has nowhere to go but up.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

We are in a managed decline that is irreversible. 50 years of shutting down our industrial base in the name of goodness replacing those products with cheap foreign goods on IOUs is going to continue to take it's toll. Full time jobs replaced with part-time, increasing numbers of people by the tens of millions living on government money of rapidly decreasing value, and overall the rapid falling of the value of the dollar.
 
Re: When will the Dollar Collpapse ?

See that's the issue with this idea, preppers like to keep gold on hand because they think people will want trade things like ammo, food, water, etc for it. Problem is that the gold has no inherent function that is useful, and therefore its worthless. It would be no different than a dollar bill, except maybe you could wipe your ass with a dollar bill if you needed to.

Do you not see the problem when you and everyone else has the same idea that they'll trade gold for things they'll need? That everyone will have gold and no one will want more of it.

First of all, few have an real amount of gold. Second of all everyone has dollars now, that doesn't stop people trading with them.

Finally, your false impression that gold has NO inherent function that is useful proves you ignorant. Manufacturers use it in circuits though silver is the better conductor because it doesn't rust, same reason NASA elected to make the record for Voyager out of gold. It also lines the McClaren engine bay because its such a good heat reflector... I could keep going but there is no need. Even one example renders the absolute claim that it has no inherent function false.
 
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