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How long till Same Sex Marriage is nationally legal in the US?

How long till Same Sex Marriage is nationally legal in the US?


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AGENT J

"If you ain't first, you're last"
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I know i asked this about 18 months ago but in light of 11 states (CT, DE, IA, MA, MD, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT, and WA) legalizing it along with DC in the US, 1 pending MN, and possible SCOTUS impact I thought id ask again.

Around the world its legal in Argentina, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Uruguay
Its legal in parts of Brazil and Mexico like in the US

And also Bills allowing legal recognition of same-sex marriage have been proposed, are pending, or have passed at least one legislative house in Andorra, Colombia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Nepal, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom, as well as in the legislatures of several sub-national jurisdictions in Scotland as well as parts of Australia.

So equal rights for gays are coming, the only thing is WHEN, how soon.

So im curious if people change their time frames when they think it will happen. Im chaining mine, i used to say 10 years now im thinking 5 or less.

What do you think.

0-5 years
5-10 years
10-15 years
15-20 years
20-25 years
25+ years
Never
 
Hopefully in the next month or so!!
 
Hopefully in the next month or so!!

That would be awesome!
Its a shame, sad and IMO pathetic that AMERICA inst leading the way on a equality/rights issue like this.
 
I know i asked this about 18 months ago but in light of 11 states (CT, DE, IA, MA, MD, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT, and WA) legalizing it along with DC in the US, 1 pending MN, and possible SCOTUS impact I thought id ask again.

Barring a SCOTUS ruling, 5-10. It is going to take a generational shift in areas that currently ban it to change. But it will happen. The youth of America will join those in the 18-29 voting blocs in the next 5-10 years to ensure it.
 
Hopefully very very very soon! :mrgreen:
C'mon USSC come through for us one more time!
 
On a federal level? Hopefully never.
 
About one month to go. The SCOTUS is going to legalize gay marriage across this great nation. To do less is a clear violation of the rights guaranteed under our Constitution.
 
On a federal level? Hopefully never.

If you mean that Government gets out of marriage entirely, changes marriage to a civil union of secular contract between two consenting adult parties (that it currently is but masquerades under the term marriage) and the state and lets NGOs handle the concept of "marriage" I'm totally there with you.

Otherwise, I have to disagree.
 
Hopefully in the next month or so!!

Obviously that would be ideal. But I have a sneaking suspicion the Supreme Court is going to kick this down the road somehow. 5-10.
 
On a federal level? Hopefully never.

Promoting state rights so they have the right to discriminate is a terrible and morally bankrupt argument for keeping the Federal government out of it.
 
Reason?????

So that conservative states can continue to deny homosexuals marriage? Maybe I'm suffering from a lack of imagination but I'm not clear on what other options he might be referring to.
 
So that conservative states can continue to deny homosexuals marriage? Maybe I'm suffering from a lack of imagination but I'm not clear on what other options he might be referring to.

hmm i guess that possible but id like to hear what he has to say because logically it doesnt make sense. I know I read him saying he is for SSM before so how is one for it but doesn't want it national seems totally nonsensical and contradictory to me but i guess ill have to wait for him to explain.
 
Ultimately i care more about DOMA, but I think it will be 10-15 years, when SC takes the case again (as senseless as that is, not like the merits change in that time). Getting 60 votes on anything is rare and the repubs in the senate have proven they are anti-gay at all costs. This may change if they lose another election and today's seniors die off/become senile, but not before. The immigration bill fiasco and their brief to the court on this very issue should make that clear.

A state-by-state will take longest of all. Can you imagine Alabama rednecks voting for this before 2050? But even that situation is quickly becoming more tolerable (3 states in a month?), once DOMA is defeated. So crossing my fingers for next month, but i think 10-15 years, then it will be forced on Alabama rednecks, probably thru SC but conceivably the legislature by then.
 
I know i asked this about 18 months ago but in light of 11 states (CT, DE, IA, MA, MD, ME, NH, NY, RI, VT, and WA) legalizing it along with DC in the US, 1 pending MN, and possible SCOTUS impact I thought id ask again.

Around the world its legal in Argentina, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Uruguay
Its legal in parts of Brazil and Mexico like in the US

And also Bills allowing legal recognition of same-sex marriage have been proposed, are pending, or have passed at least one legislative house in Andorra, Colombia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Nepal, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom, as well as in the legislatures of several sub-national jurisdictions in Scotland as well as parts of Australia.

So equal rights for gays are coming, the only thing is WHEN, how soon.

So im curious if people change their time frames when they think it will happen. Im chaining mine, i used to say 10 years now im thinking 5 or less.

What do you think.

0-5 years
5-10 years
10-15 years
15-20 years
20-25 years
25+ years
Never

Well, it depends on what you mean. If you mean how long till the federal government recognizes SSM performed by states, probably this year. If you mean how long till SSM couples can marry in all 50 states, probably several years.
 
Obviously that would be ideal. But I have a sneaking suspicion the Supreme Court is going to kick this down the road somehow. 5-10.

There are two SCOTUS rulings coming on two separate issues involving SSM. The ruling on prop 8, you are probably right in that, with either a ruling of a lack of standing, or a ruling that very narrowly only affects California. The DOMA ruling is far and away most likely going to be to overturn DOMA(probably about 80 % chance). Of course, as we have learned in the past year, guessing how the court will rule based on oral arguments is not a safe thing to do. While there is certainly a real likelihood that the court will rule as I and most experts expect, it is not a certainty.
 
If you mean that Government gets out of marriage entirely, changes marriage to a civil union of secular contract between two consenting adult parties (that it currently is but masquerades under the term marriage) and the state and lets NGOs handle the concept of "marriage" I'm totally there with you.

Otherwise, I have to disagree.

That is just not going to happen any time soon. There is not nearly enough support for something like that. I could see as more and more states decide to allow SSM, that some on the traditional marriage side start to back it more and more in a last ditch effort to deny the word marriage for SSM couples, but I can't see it getting any kind of real traction.
 
I believe that it is highly likely that DOMA will go down this summer. I think that even if there weren't enough Justices there for the equal protection clause to take it down, that some of the Justices would be willing to sacrifice it for the states' rights ruling. Basically sacrifice DOMA so that it protects/takes longer to strike down state bans. I think, like others, the Prop 8 case will be a narrow ruling applying only to California or those that would grant marriage then take it away.

Now, I think we will see a few more this year legalize ssm then it will slow down again as states work to vote away the constitutional restrictions. Then, we may see another increase. It will continue this way until one of a few things occur. Either the SCOTUS finally takes up a state case to strike down the laws that isn't as easy to make a limited ruling on (a military couple would be good for this since they have to move to states that may not recognize them as married, plus the new rules in place treat same sex couples and opposite sex couples differently because of the very fact that same sex couples cannot get married in all states)(another possible good case for this would be if some idiot actually did tell a transgender MTF and her wife or transgender FTM and his husband (less likely couple to begin with though) that they cannot be legally recognized as married eventhough they were married prior to the change, as an opposite sex couple). Or the US Congress passes an opposite act/bill than DOMA that tells states they must follow the Full Faith and Credit Clause of the 14th when it comes to marriage. Otherwise, it will take many years, possibly a couple more decades, to get all the states to finally overturn their same sex marriage bans because there are unfortunately a lot of stubborn people out there.
 
I put down 10-15, but only for the last few religiously-stupid states. The majority will pass gay marriage laws in the next 5 years.
 
I actually want the federal, state, and local to get out of the marriage license business so I'll say "never".

To explain, if a religion agrees with SSM let them perform the ceremony and it should be recognized legally and automatically without question, if a religion does not agree with it they shouldn't be so compelled. And here is the kicker, justice of the peace marriage must be equal opportunity and fully recognized, secular bodies have no right to distinguish under equal protections of the U.S. constitution. Easy enough, done.
 
I actually want the federal, state, and local to get out of the marriage license business so I'll say "never".

To explain, if a religion agrees with SSM let them perform the ceremony and it should be recognized legally and automatically without question, if a religion does not agree with it they shouldn't be so compelled. And here is the kicker, justice of the peace marriage must be equal opportunity and fully recognized, secular bodies have no right to distinguish under equal protections of the U.S. constitution. Easy enough, done.

I can think of no rational reason why someone in favor of gay marriage might possibly agree to this. Besides, government licenses and religious ceremonies are already separate.

The government removing itself from marriage is in any case a fantasy, and not worthy of consideration.
 
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I can think of no rational reason why someone in favor of gay marriage might possibly agree to this. Besides, government licenses and religious ceremonies are already separate.
Legal recognition for benefits is the issue, that should be removed. IOW if a ceremony is performed the marriage should automatically be authorized for all benefits contained therein. For instance if I marry a fiance in the Catholic church she has a right to my property upon death or divorce, all benefits I get through a company like insurance are legally mandated for her to be covered under, etc. what I was saying is that the government does not get to pick and choose, any marriage should have equal legal protections and a justice of the peace(civil ceremony) would have to be performed under equal protections law. What I am arguing is that no level of government may pick and choose what to recognize as "legal", I'm actually using the first amendment(religious protection) and fourteenth(binds all rights to all levels of government) to state that government shall not have authority to decide which marriages(barring child, etc.) they may recognize.
 
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