I think you've made a very accurate assessment here.Yes indeed, constituents are a fickle lot. I have made it a hobby of mine to study independent/swing voters ever since I worked and campaigned for Perot back in 92. This group is the fickle lot, not those who associate themselves with either of the two major parties. It is also very interesting to note that those who classify themselves as independents has grown from 30% during Perot’s time to 40% today. This backs up your statement about the over all populace not being happing with either parties doings or programs as you put it. There is a growing dislike for both parties, more so on the GOP side than the Democratic side as the latest Gallup Poll show only 28% of the electorate identify themselves with the Republicans and 32% with the Democrats.
What is interesting here is that Obama won by 4 points, the exact difference that is between the parties which mean independents split right down the middle, 50-50 for the republicans and democrats. In 2006 and 2008 independents went slightly for the democrats and in 2010 they went in a big way for the republicans and now we are back to an even split. This fickle group decides elections and which way they will go in 2014 is anybody’s guess at this time. But the bad new for the GOP is since they have less loyal members than the Democrats, they have to win around 53% of the independent vote to win. Democrats can win at least nationally by only gaining around 48% of this group.