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- May 22, 2012
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The actual worker-to-retiree ratio in 1975 was 3.2-to-1. Today, it is 3.1-to-1. The SS Trustees predict it will drop to 2.0-to-1 in 2070. They do that by projecting that both legal and illegal immigration will be flat over most of the next 75 years. Wanna bet?
Any well-informed analyst would caution that either approach is tantamount to attempting to dismantle the system. Understand there is no actually demonstrated need to do anything at all. If the SS trustees are even slightly off in their projections of GDP, or of no net immigration, or in their assuimption that life expectancy will continue to grow at the same rate over the next 75 years as it did between 1975 and 2000, then the SS Trust Fund will never be exhausted and the system will be able to pay 100% of currently scheduled benefits in perpetuity. This is the other side of the coin. Better look at that one as well.
Then there is the SSAs own view of things to consider, that differs from yours: The Future Financial Status of the Social Security Program