View Poll Results: What's an acceptable world population?

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  • Less than 100 Million

    2 6.90%
  • 500 Million

    3 10.34%
  • 1 Billion

    5 17.24%
  • 3 Billion

    2 6.90%
  • We’re pushing our limits now

    5 17.24%
  • That question is above my pay grade

    4 13.79%
  • I’m just happy to be here

    8 27.59%
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Thread: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

  1. #21
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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    The estimates I have seen has the tipping point around 20 billion before we start having widespread problems with food/water/sanitation resulting in war, plagues, starvation.

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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    It would depend on the lifestyle of the population. If everyone consumedlike we do in the West, not many. If we were all hunter-gatherers, with limited technology, maybe more.

    http://www.conservation.org/act/live...footprint.aspx
    Last edited by Manc Skipper; 12-22-12 at 11:05 PM.
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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    I'm sorry, but the primary reason that Malthusian predictions fail, is that they never factor in scientific innovation.
    How long ago, were we supposed to experience the first catastrophe that never happened?
    It probably would have if we hadn't harnessed oil. Malthus didn't know about oil, and oil was there in the ground waiting for us to use it. We didn't scientifically innovate oil. The resource existed on its own. If there's another such resource, then we may have a lot more time ahead of us, but as it stands though there is no such other resource that returns such a great deal more energy than we have to invest to access it.

    GM crops are saving us, they've been saving us. That's why farmers can get more product, per acre than before and that's why they'll get even more later.
    That's thanks to fossil fuels. Take away their fuel and their yields will drop by 95%. Modern agriculture is utterly fossil fuel-dependent.

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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    It probably would have if we hadn't harnessed oil. Malthus didn't know about oil, and oil was there in the ground waiting for us to use it. We didn't scientifically innovate oil. The resource existed on its own. If there's another such resource, then we may have a lot more time ahead of us, but as it stands though there is no such other resource that returns such a great deal more energy than we have to invest to access it.



    That's thanks to fossil fuels. Take away their fuel and their yields will drop by 95%. Modern agriculture is utterly fossil fuel-dependent.
    And we don't need oil reserves to make oil.
    That start up Bill Gates invested in, the creates oil from GM bacteria, well they've expanded their operation to the next phase.
    They're producing oil.

    By 2017, they plan to be producing approximately 10k barrels a day.
    Which doesn't seem like much, but this is just one facility.

    Science is catching up to the oil catastrophe people.
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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    And we don't need oil reserves to make oil.
    That start up Bill Gates invested in, the creates oil from GM bacteria, well they've expanded their operation to the next phase.
    They're producing oil.

    By 2017, they plan to be producing approximately 10k barrels a day.
    Which doesn't seem like much, but this is just one facility.
    What's the EROEI?

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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    What's the EROEI?
    Don't know.
    But the thing I do know, is that they use stagnant water ponds to produce it.

    This is the company.
    Sapphire Energy, Inc.
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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    Don't know.
    But the thing I do know, is that they use stagnant water ponds to produce it.

    This is the company.
    Sapphire Energy, Inc.
    So far it's less than one, i.e. it requires more energy to produce it than it returns to us.

    The Energy Return on Investment for Algal Biocrude: Results for a Research Production Facility

    Therefore, although the EROI for algal fuels might remain less than one in the foreseeable future, algae represent one of the most promising petroleum fuel substitutes, particularly for high-energy density fuels, such as aviation fuel. Therefore, although large-scale algal biofuel production remains quite challenging, algal fuels have the potential to satisfy some of these niche markets.
    Interesting stuff, but not time to celebrate yet.

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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Neomalthusian View Post
    So far it's less than one, i.e. it requires more energy to produce than it returns to us.

    http://www.utexas.edu/research/cem/I...nlineFirst.pdf
    Right, but it's in the infancy phase, although they've successfully produced it.
    It doesn't take away the fact, that solutions are being brought up all the time.

    You can't predict a collapse like that, because you aren't aware of all technology in development.
    At best, it's grasping at straws.
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  9. #29
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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    Right, but it's in the infancy phase, although they've successfully produced it.
    It doesn't take away the fact, that solutions are being brought up all the time.
    It won't ever be a solution in any sense of the word unless/until the EROEI rises to significantly above 1. As that study points out, this could be a mighty challenge.

    You can't predict a collapse like that, because you aren't aware of all technology in development. At best, it's grasping at straws.
    I'm not predicting a collapse in specific terms the way doomsday theorists do. I admit the possibility of a miraculous energy discovery, but I also admit the possibility that no such source of energy exists. If there's no such thing as an oil replacement, then all the attention and concentration in the world on finding one is futile.

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    re: What's an acceptable world population? [W:48]

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    No we're not remotely close.
    There is plenty of freely usable agriculture land across the world.

    New growing techniques have reduced the amount of land needed and increased the yield per plant.
    We're fine, Malthusian collapse, at this point, is junk science.
    I think we might be able to float another billion or so with our current model. after that, we will probably have to start getting creative.

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