View Poll Results: which is a better way to understand the polls?

Voters
33. You may not vote on this poll
  • aggregate sites such as rcp average or nate silver's site

    11 33.33%
  • individual polls (some pollsters are better than others)

    10 30.30%
  • intrade

    3 9.09%
  • other

    5 15.15%
  • hot potato!

    10 30.30%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: polls

  1. #1
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    polls

    in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

    going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

    going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

    other?

  2. #2
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    Re: polls

    Rasmussen does the most accurate and stable polling...

  3. #3
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by Calvincoolidge View Post
    Rasmussen does the most accurate and stable polling...
    To answer the OP question: I read and trust Nate Silver and he is the most authoritative and reliable at putting all these numbers together.

    Rasmussen is a known outlier who intentionally tilts his methods to produce more favorable results toward Republicans. As the election day gets closer, he becomes lss of an outlier so he can claim to be accurate. The only thing that measures that accuracy is the election day results compared to his final poll results. Far too many people are willing to ignore the fact that he was an outlier for months and months and they do NOT want to even think about why because that would upset their glee with the numbers Ras gives them.
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  4. #4
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by Calvincoolidge View Post
    Rasmussen does the most accurate and stable polling...
    Rasmussen wasn't the most accurate in the last Presidential election. He underestimated Obama 52/46 while CNN and Ipsos nailed it 53/46.

  5. #5
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    Re: polls

    Being right in one presidential election really shouldn't make or break any one as being elite in the polling arena, I wouldn't think. Am I wrong? Without doing my own research, which I realize that I could (probably should), which polling source has been most accurate over a period of say 20 years or so?

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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

    going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

    going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

    other?
    A combo of specific polling outfits and Nate Silver.

  7. #7
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    Re: polls

    RCP and Nate Silver for when I am feeling lazy. Probably two of the best.
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  8. #8
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    Re: polls

    Polls like tests are snapshots in time. 5 minutes later they don't mean anything. The survey group is too small and not spread out over a large enough area. I don't trust them and don't like them
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  9. #9
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

    going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

    going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

    other?
    I put a great deal of faith in Gallup. Especially since, when Obama first started losing momentum, the White House invited one of the pollsters to the White House to explain their polling methodology.

    This is a good post. It reminds me that jumping all over the place looking at everyone's polling data probably isn't the best way to get a feel for what's going on. Stick with one, Or maybe two. Assuming their methodology is the same from poll to poll, that probably gives the clearest picture.
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  10. #10
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    Re: polls

    The best way to understand polls is to ignore them. Secondly why are we having a poll about polls.

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