View Poll Results: which is a better way to understand the polls?

Voters
33. You may not vote on this poll
  • aggregate sites such as rcp average or nate silver's site

    11 33.33%
  • individual polls (some pollsters are better than others)

    10 30.30%
  • intrade

    3 9.09%
  • other

    5 15.15%
  • hot potato!

    10 30.30%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: polls

  1. #21
    Sage

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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    Perhaps I was not clear. Rasmussen is well known in the business for being an outlier. The earlier in the campaign - the less reliable he is. As election day nears, his numbers get closer to reality and by election day he is pretty much within the normal margin of error.

    Within the business of electioneering - which is what I am in - he has the reputation of being a GOP promoter and will bend his survey work accordingly.



    Within your business you must have data to support this.

    Link?
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  2. #22
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    Within your business you must have data to support this.

    Link?
    try this to begin with

    http://election.princeton.edu/2012/0...asmussen-data/

    My statement was to relate the perception that people within the political consultant industry have about Rasmussen. Nobody - on any side of the political wars - NOBODY can say if a poll taken far out from an election date is accurate or not accurate. That is an impossibility. So you are asking for evidence which is impossible for anyone to get regardless of what side of the issue they are on. It is impossible to gather any verifiable data to show that a poll issued two months or two weeks before an election is wrong. As you well know, the test of a polls accuracy is how it does compared to the actual election results. However, when somebody like Rasmussen is noticeably different by the vast majority of polls and that difference is almost always in the favor of the conservative or Republican candidate or position, it makes a statement. And within the world of political consultants, Rasmussen is known as "in the bag" for the GOP and an organization which will carefully mold its methodologies and skew its results accordingly.

    this should help on the perception issue that I talked about

    http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-cha...mussen-problem

    Rasmussen polling occupies an odd place in the political culture. In the conservative world, it is the gold standard. If you go to a conservative set on basically any random day, you'll see somebody touting a Rasmussen poll. Here is John McCormack at the Weekly Standard touting a poll showing huge support to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Here is Peter Wehner at Commentary doing the same. Rasmussen frequently asks unusual polling questions that produce results almost certainly calculated to demonstrate public support for the conservative position. (Here's one example of a loaded Rasmussen question.) Rasmussen has become a right-wing celebrity. He's the author of a conservative book. This fall he is a featured guest on National Review's cruise, along with other conservative luminaries.

    Part of Rasmussen's celebrity status derives from the fact that even his polls on commonly-asked questions skew strongly toward the conservative position.
    this article has an excellent chart which clearly shows the outlier aspect of Rasmussen

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09...liers-discuss/

    Of course, some will tell us that Rasmussen could have been correct and every other one of those on that chart could have been wrong. Which reminds me of the proud mother at the parade who noticed that her son in the marching band was the only one not in synch marching with the others as he went by as a few giggled noticing his error. Not to be discouraged, the proud mother puffed out her ample bosom and loudly pontificated to the crowd

    "everybody is out of step but my Johnnie!"
    Last edited by haymarket; 10-28-12 at 11:51 AM.
    __________________________________________________ _
    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers

  3. #23
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    try this to begin with

    A nonpartisan statistical approach to Rasmussen data

    My statement was to relate the perception that people within the political consultant industry have about Rasmussen. Nobody - on any side of the political wars - NOBODY can say if a poll taken far out from an election date is accurate or not accurate. That is an impossibility. So you are asking for evidence which is impossible for anyone to get regardless of what side of the issue they are on. It is impossible to gather any verifiable data to show that a poll issued two months or two weeks before an election is wrong. As you well know, the test of a polls accuracy is how it does compared to the actual election results. However, when somebody like Rasmussen is noticeably different by the vast majority of polls and that difference is almost always in the favor of the conservative or Republican candidate or position, it makes a statement. And within the world of political consultants, Rasmussen is known as "in the bag" for the GOP and an organization which will carefully mold its methodologies and skew its results accordingly.

    this should help on the perception issue that I talked about

    The Rasmussen Problem | The New Republic



    this article has an excellent chart which clearly shows the outlier aspect of Rasmussen

    Political Polls, Data Analysis and Outliers: Discuss | The Big Picture

    Of course, some will tell us that Rasmussen could have been correct and every other one of those on that chart could have been wrong. Which reminds me of the proud mother at the parade who noticed that her son in the marching band was the only one not in synch marching with the others as he went by as a few giggled noticing his error. Not to be discouraged, the proud mother puffed out her ample bosom and loudly pontificated to the crowd

    "everybody is out of step but my Johnnie!"


    You said that your business has something to do with gauging opinion.

    I expected that you would produce some industry standards or industry revelations showing that Rasmussen was more wrong the further from the election the poll was published and less wrong as the election approached.

    What you have shown is that Rasmussen was different from the other polls. We all know this. My impression has always been that the other polls do what you say Rasmussen does which is skew toward the actual result as the finish line approaches.

    There is one link you show in which Rasmussen has Romney +2 and various of the others show Obama +2 or +3. While this is within the MOE and only the one that shows Obama +6 is the outlier, All of the others are now moving toward where Rasmussen was.

    Do you have industry data that clearly shows that Rasmussen polls move to where the others are rather showing that all of the others move to where Rasmussen is.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  4. #24
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    You said that your business has something to do with gauging opinion.

    I expected that you would produce some industry standards or industry revelations showing that Rasmussen was more wrong the further from the election the poll was published and less wrong as the election approached.

    What you have shown is that Rasmussen was different from the other polls. We all know this. My impression has always been that the other polls do what you say Rasmussen does which is skew toward the actual result as the finish line approaches.

    There is one link you show in which Rasmussen has Romney +2 and various of the others show Obama +2 or +3. While this is within the MOE and only the one that shows Obama +6 is the outlier, All of the others are now moving toward where Rasmussen was.

    Do you have industry data that clearly shows that Rasmussen polls move to where the others are rather showing that all of the others move to where Rasmussen is.
    The type of data you ask for has never been done And I suspect it has never been done because it is IMPOSSIBLE to gauge that sort of question to any degree of reliability.

    But to answer it another way, is it more logical and more likely that we have dozens of posters moving to Rasmussen as election day nears or is it more likely that Rasmussen is abandoning his advocacy position and is moving to reality so as to not ruin his business and be consistent with the industry wide consensus?

    Give an honest answer to that and you have the answer you seek.

    Or think of it like this: A forty member marching band goes by as you observe from a city sidewalk. 39 are in step and one is not. Is it more likely that the 39 are marching as they should be or is everybody out of step but Johnny?
    __________________________________________________ _
    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers

  5. #25
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    The type of data you ask for has never been done And I suspect it has never been done because it is IMPOSSIBLE to gauge that sort of question to any degree of reliability.

    But to answer it another way, is it more logical and more likely that we have dozens of posters moving to Rasmussen as election day nears or is it more likely that Rasmussen is abandoning his advocacy position and is moving to reality so as to not ruin his business and be consistent with the industry wide consensus?

    Give an honest answer to that and you have the answer you seek.

    Or think of it like this: A forty member marching band goes by as you observe from a city sidewalk. 39 are in step and one is not. Is it more likely that the 39 are marching as they should be or is everybody out of step but Johnny?


    You said that you were in the business. I assumed this meant that you had knowledge of the business.

    I was mistaken.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  6. #26
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    You said that you were in the business. I assumed this meant that you had knowledge of the business.

    I was mistaken.
    What was it I told you that would cause you to make this totally incorrect personal pontification about somebody you know nothing about?

    Can you point to one thing I told you that you can find issue with as factually incorrect? If I made an error of fact I would greatly appreciate if you could point it out and tell us why it is an error of fact.

    Or is it simply your intention to attack me because you find the information I have presented to you disagreeable to your own self imposed political or ideological beliefs?

    The fact is that I am in this business and candidates for office respect my knowledge and pay me for it.... pay me quite well in fact. So it would seem that the people who actually require the political expertise I supply have a far different opinion of my skill set than you seem to have. Of course that is understandable as they know me and know my past work and make an honest evaluation of its value to them. You on the other hand, seem to be reacting from far different priorities.

    Could you make it clear to me what those might be?
    __________________________________________________ _
    There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs.... John Rogers

  7. #27
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    Re: polls

    But Rasmussen stayed with his prediction *closely* from 40 days out

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