View Poll Results: which is a better way to understand the polls?

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  • aggregate sites such as rcp average or nate silver's site

    11 33.33%
  • individual polls (some pollsters are better than others)

    10 30.30%
  • intrade

    3 9.09%
  • other

    5 15.15%
  • hot potato!

    10 30.30%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: polls

  1. #11
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    To answer the OP question: I read and trust Nate Silver and he is the most authoritative and reliable at putting all these numbers together.

    Rasmussen is a known outlier who intentionally tilts his methods to produce more favorable results toward Republicans. As the election day gets closer, he becomes lss of an outlier so he can claim to be accurate. The only thing that measures that accuracy is the election day results compared to his final poll results. Far too many people are willing to ignore the fact that he was an outlier for months and months and they do NOT want to even think about why because that would upset their glee with the numbers Ras gives them.


    Was he an outlier because he was inaccurate or because he was accurate and the others came to him?
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  2. #12
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by Numeros View Post
    Rasmussen wasn't the most accurate in the last Presidential election. He underestimated Obama 52/46 while CNN and Ipsos nailed it 53/46.

    Margin of error?
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

  3. #13
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    Margin of error?
    seriously. If the pollster was 1% off, that very darned good and is very much to their credit. This is not a valid criticism of rasmussen.

  4. #14
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    Was he an outlier because he was inaccurate or because he was accurate and the others came to him?
    Perhaps I was not clear. Rasmussen is well known in the business for being an outlier. The earlier in the campaign - the less reliable he is. As election day nears, his numbers get closer to reality and by election day he is pretty much within the normal margin of error.

    Within the business of electioneering - which is what I am in - he has the reputation of being a GOP promoter and will bend his survey work accordingly.
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  5. #15
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    Re: polls

    People always rail against polls that go against what they believe or want to believe...but the truth is polling is relatively accurate and has been for a long time. Rarely are the polls waaaaaaaaaaaaay off...more often then not a combination of polls usually gives fairly accurate incite.
    Rasmussen I believe was very fairminded at one time...but it has now morphed to the right.

  6. #16
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    Re: polls

    There is very little news about the campaigns or candidates themselves, only endless news about the polls. I'd like to see polls outlawed.

  7. #17
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

    going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

    going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

    other?
    I prefer polling aggregates like RCP and think Nate Silver does a good job. Looking at individual pollsters doesn't give as complete a picture.
    There should be Instant Runoff Voting

  8. #18
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    Re: polls

    when I care enough to look, I usually check out sites that compile all of the majors. I do admit, though, that I give intrade a little weight, because that's people betting real money.

    I suppose when it comes down to it, the poll that really matters will be taken a week from Tuesday.

  9. #19
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    in your opinion, which is a better way to understand the polls?

    going with an aggregate site, such as RCP or fivethirtyeight.com?

    going with specific polling outfits, such as gallup or rasmussen?

    other?
    I tend to go with intrade.
    It's real people putting their money where their mouth is.

    Not fleeting opinion polling.
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  10. #20
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    Re: polls

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    seriously. If the pollster was 1% off, that very darned good and is very much to their credit. This is not a valid criticism of rasmussen.


    A 1% difference in a poll with a 3% margin of error is no difference.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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