View Poll Results: Long term demographics

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  • Democratic party becomes much stronger, current platforms remain largely unchanged

    8 27.59%
  • Republican party adopts platform changes to appeal to new demographics, balance is maintained

    8 27.59%
  • republican party changes platform to appeal to new groups, republicans become more dominant

    4 13.79%
  • republican party loses popularity and another party (libertarians?) begins to take hold

    3 10.34%
  • republican party loses popularity and splits conservative votes with another party

    1 3.45%
  • democrats become too diverse (big tent) and split into smaller parties

    2 6.90%
  • other

    8 27.59%
  • goshinabega

    2 6.90%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Thread: Long term demographics

  1. #1
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    Long term demographics

    Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

    One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

    In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?

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    Re: Long term demographics

    I would like to see the Republicans replaced by the Libertarians (because I agree with them on most non-economic matters) but my guess is the Republicans will adapt.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    I'm guessing some (very sick, very demented) people will secretly cheer the fact that white people are dying out in the USA and that they are being replaced with other races.

    The culture will mainly be the same american culture with the same way of life, at least for the next 20 years... or the foreseeable future. People will still eat supersized junk food and keep on beating obesity records. McDonalds and KFC will still open shops. Crappy TV shows will still be made. Holywood will still be the same rat-infested sh*thole it is now and drug crimes, race wars that claim about 10k people every year will continue. Because that is the mainstream culture and there is no attempt to change it.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Sarcogito View Post
    I would like to see the Republicans replaced by the Libertarians (because I agree with them on most non-economic matters) but my guess is the Republicans will adapt.
    I don't think so, as the nomination will make it hard to nominate candidates who will appeal to minorities. Also, many young voters today will never vote republican despite how much they change.

    There are no reason why Republicans will adapt any time soon. For instance after Andrew Johnson, in 1869 to 1933. Democrats won 4 out of 16 elections. That was because Democrats were the party of slavery and racism. (for instance in 1924 democrats debated if they were going to condemn the KKK or not.) Democrats were deeply unpopular everywhere except the south. In the late 1800s many new states were formed and they all supported Republicans. In many ways it was quite similar to the demographics shift that is happening now.

    Then in 1933 they toned down the racism, and started flirting with socialist ideas. Republican pro-business ideas were not very popular anymore due to the recession and people disliked Hoover. Hence, Democrats had the presidency for 20 consecutive years.

    It took Democrats 64 years to adapt after the Andrew Johnson and the civil war. It is going to take some time for Republicans too.
    Last edited by Camlon; 10-17-12 at 08:54 AM.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    From your poll options, this is the most likely:
    Republican party adopts platform changes to appeal to new demographics, balance is maintained
    This is because the GOP's strategy of appealing exclusively to white people is a long-term political loser. At some point, the GOP is going to have to at least tone down the subtle and not-so-subtle racist crap and start appealing to a more diverse crowd. But I think that eventually they WILL do this, simply because they have to. We've had a competitive partisan landscape for over 150 years and that isn't likely to change, due to a political phenomenon similar to evolution: Candidates who are ideologically acceptable to the electorate tend to get elected more often than those who are ideologically unacceptable, and replicate their beliefs within their party over time. So I find it hard to believe that the GOP is going to go extinct just because the demographics are shifting against them; our nation's demographics have ALWAYS been shifting.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 10-17-12 at 12:16 PM.
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

    One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

    In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?
    I expect the democrat party to grow, as it is the one who typically supports dependence on government for one's needs being met. I expect the republican party to shrink, and the libertarian party to have some growth, but not nearly enough to win any elections of significance.
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    Re: Long term demographics

    I expect the Republican Party to eventually adapt. As the number of social conservatives shrink, the less necessary it will be to appeal to them to turn out the base. I think this will eventually lead to whiter blue states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota to trend Republican. I also think its possible for there to be some Republican resurgence in the Northeast in the future as New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine get wealthier and the controversial social issues get downplayed. There will be more Republicans in the same vein as Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Judd Gregg, and Chris Shays.

    At the same time I expect the Democrats will create a stranglehold in the Southwest. California, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and eventually Texas will become blue states in the coming decades. The other area becoming slowly more Democratic is the coastal South, where Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are becoming more diverse and sympathetic to Democrats.

    By 2040-2050 I expect we could see an electoral map look something like this:

    Long term demographics-2040-map-jpg
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Very interestin poll but you forgot one. Republican party changes platform to appeal to new demographic and losses populatiry. Or they stay the same and lose popularity

    At some point if the Republican Party continues on its journey to right wind land, they will either lose contact with mainstream america or main stream will reject them. then they have two options IMHO, attack to another party with similar ideas or give way to another party.

    the other thing that COULD happen is that the Libertarians join with the Republicans that don't except the extreme right and replace what has become identified as the Republican party as a coalition party.
    "Those who do not learn from history and condemned to relive it".

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    Re: Long term demographics

    I expect minorities will change.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Both parties continue to drift to the Left until the new (D) is really Communist, and the new (R) is Socialist.

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