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Long term demographics

Long term demographics

  • republican party loses popularity and splits conservative votes with another party

    Votes: 0 0.0%

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Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?
 
I would like to see the Republicans replaced by the Libertarians (because I agree with them on most non-economic matters) but my guess is the Republicans will adapt.
 
I'm guessing some (very sick, very demented) people will secretly cheer the fact that white people are dying out in the USA and that they are being replaced with other races.

The culture will mainly be the same american culture with the same way of life, at least for the next 20 years... or the foreseeable future. People will still eat supersized junk food and keep on beating obesity records. McDonalds and KFC will still open shops. Crappy TV shows will still be made. Holywood will still be the same rat-infested sh*thole it is now and drug crimes, race wars that claim about 10k people every year will continue. Because that is the mainstream culture and there is no attempt to change it.
 
I would like to see the Republicans replaced by the Libertarians (because I agree with them on most non-economic matters) but my guess is the Republicans will adapt.
I don't think so, as the nomination will make it hard to nominate candidates who will appeal to minorities. Also, many young voters today will never vote republican despite how much they change.

There are no reason why Republicans will adapt any time soon. For instance after Andrew Johnson, in 1869 to 1933. Democrats won 4 out of 16 elections. That was because Democrats were the party of slavery and racism. (for instance in 1924 democrats debated if they were going to condemn the KKK or not.) Democrats were deeply unpopular everywhere except the south. In the late 1800s many new states were formed and they all supported Republicans. In many ways it was quite similar to the demographics shift that is happening now.

Then in 1933 they toned down the racism, and started flirting with socialist ideas. Republican pro-business ideas were not very popular anymore due to the recession and people disliked Hoover. Hence, Democrats had the presidency for 20 consecutive years.

It took Democrats 64 years to adapt after the Andrew Johnson and the civil war. It is going to take some time for Republicans too.
 
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From your poll options, this is the most likely:
Republican party adopts platform changes to appeal to new demographics, balance is maintained

This is because the GOP's strategy of appealing exclusively to white people is a long-term political loser. At some point, the GOP is going to have to at least tone down the subtle and not-so-subtle racist crap and start appealing to a more diverse crowd. But I think that eventually they WILL do this, simply because they have to. We've had a competitive partisan landscape for over 150 years and that isn't likely to change, due to a political phenomenon similar to evolution: Candidates who are ideologically acceptable to the electorate tend to get elected more often than those who are ideologically unacceptable, and replicate their beliefs within their party over time. So I find it hard to believe that the GOP is going to go extinct just because the demographics are shifting against them; our nation's demographics have ALWAYS been shifting.
 
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Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?

I expect the democrat party to grow, as it is the one who typically supports dependence on government for one's needs being met. I expect the republican party to shrink, and the libertarian party to have some growth, but not nearly enough to win any elections of significance.
 
I expect the Republican Party to eventually adapt. As the number of social conservatives shrink, the less necessary it will be to appeal to them to turn out the base. I think this will eventually lead to whiter blue states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota to trend Republican. I also think its possible for there to be some Republican resurgence in the Northeast in the future as New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine get wealthier and the controversial social issues get downplayed. There will be more Republicans in the same vein as Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Judd Gregg, and Chris Shays.

At the same time I expect the Democrats will create a stranglehold in the Southwest. California, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and eventually Texas will become blue states in the coming decades. The other area becoming slowly more Democratic is the coastal South, where Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are becoming more diverse and sympathetic to Democrats.

By 2040-2050 I expect we could see an electoral map look something like this:

2040 Map.jpg
 
Very interestin poll but you forgot one. Republican party changes platform to appeal to new demographic and losses populatiry. Or they stay the same and lose popularity

At some point if the Republican Party continues on its journey to right wind land, they will either lose contact with mainstream america or main stream will reject them. then they have two options IMHO, attack to another party with similar ideas or give way to another party.

the other thing that COULD happen is that the Libertarians join with the Republicans that don't except the extreme right and replace what has become identified as the Republican party as a coalition party.
 
I expect minorities will change.
 
Both parties continue to drift to the Left until the new (D) is really Communist, and the new (R) is Socialist.
 
I expect the Republican Party to eventually adapt. As the number of social conservatives shrink, the less necessary it will be to appeal to them to turn out the base. I think this will eventually lead to whiter blue states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota to trend Republican. I also think its possible for there to be some Republican resurgence in the Northeast in the future as New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine get wealthier and the controversial social issues get downplayed. There will be more Republicans in the same vein as Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Judd Gregg, and Chris Shays.

At the same time I expect the Democrats will create a stranglehold in the Southwest. California, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, and eventually Texas will become blue states in the coming decades. The other area becoming slowly more Democratic is the coastal South, where Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida are becoming more diverse and sympathetic to Democrats.

By 2040-2050 I expect we could see an electoral map look something like this:

View attachment 67136211

Sorry your map is wrong Wiscsonin, Minnesota and Iowa are blue now and blue then. These states have progressive roots and midwestern common sense. I also think considering the strenght of unions in Ohio it will remain blue.
Georgia is never going to be blue. Its in thier blood. nor is south carolina it goes against their nature.

Beyond that it looks ok.
 
I think once Hispanic voters figure out that the Democratic party,
is the party of victims and economic slavery,
They will find another party closer to their values.
If the Republicans are not up to receiving them with open arms, some other party will.
 
Sorry your map is wrong Wiscsonin, Minnesota and Iowa are blue now and blue then. These states have progressive roots and midwestern common sense. I also think considering the strenght of unions in Ohio it will remain blue.
Georgia is never going to be blue. Its in thier blood. nor is south carolina it goes against their nature.

Beyond that it looks ok.

I disagree. Before 2008 and Obama's huge win Minnesota and Wisconsin were trending redder. Iowa even went red in 2004. Ohio is already slightly more Republican than the national average.

Georgia and South Carolina on the other hand, are reversing long term trends and becoming more diverse, experiencing the same population growth that made Virginia and North Carolina vote Democrat in 2008. It'll take longer for them, but if the trends continue, Democrats should be competitive there in a few cycles.
 
I think once Hispanic voters figure out that the Democratic party,
is the party of victims and economic slavery,
They will find another party closer to their values.
If the Republicans are not up to receiving them with open arms, some other party will.

I don't go for the partisan rhetoric but that's mostly accurate.

Hispanics, etc. will become wealthier as they become more established in this country and wonder why so much of their hard earned income is being redistributed to the poor.
 
One of the big fallacies you hear coming out of the left is that somehow long term demographics favor them.

As someone who has lived in South America for many years, I can tell you unequivocally that latinos are no more likely to vote for the left than they are for the right.

Actually, they're a lot more like the WASPS that vote Republican than you'd like to see.

The only reason more latinos vote democrat today is because many of them haven't made their way up the social ladder yet. As they integrate to American society and become wealthier and more established, I think the Democrats will be unpleasantly surprised to know that Latin Americans are going to abandon them in droves.

Latinos have right-wing DNA. They are generally religious, conservative, and believe in the value of hard work.

Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?
 
Latinos Part of Demographic Shift That Will Define Politics | Fox News Latino

One of the stories that people are finally beginning to notice is the implication of long term demographic shifts in the US. From my personal view point, the older culture of the US is dying out and is being replaced by a new culture that is more diverse and the recent political fights are largely a result of people realizing that the older ways of live and increasingly becoming less popular due to these shifts.

In terms of political parties, what do you think is likely to happen?

I think if you are a party that appeals to old white guys you will be in trouble.
 
One of the big fallacies you hear coming out of the left is that somehow long term demographics favor them.

As someone who has lived in South America for many years, I can tell you unequivocally that latinos are no more likely to vote for the left than they are for the right.

Actually, they're a lot more like the WASPS that vote Republican than you'd like to see.

The only reason more latinos vote democrat today is because many of them haven't made their way up the social ladder yet. As they integrate to American society and become wealthier and more established, I think the Democrats will be unpleasantly surprised to know that Latin Americans are going to abandon them in droves.

Latinos have right-wing DNA. They are generally religious, conservative, and believe in the value of hard work.

I remember reading something showing that even wealthy latinos support the Democratic party overwhelmingly, though not by as much as the poorer Latin Americans. I think it has to do with how the parties are perceived. Ignoring whether its true or not, the Democratic party is perceived as the party of minorities by a lot of the country.
 
One of the big fallacies you hear coming out of the left is that somehow long term demographics favor them.

As someone who has lived in South America for many years, I can tell you unequivocally that latinos are no more likely to vote for the left than they are for the right.

Actually, they're a lot more like the WASPS that vote Republican than you'd like to see.

The only reason more latinos vote democrat today is because many of them haven't made their way up the social ladder yet. As they integrate to American society and become wealthier and more established, I think the Democrats will be unpleasantly surprised to know that Latin Americans are going to abandon them in droves.

Latinos have right-wing DNA. They are generally religious, conservative, and believe in the value of hard work.

The fallacy stems from the belief that Hispanics vote Democrat because Republicans are racist.

The reality is Hispanics vote Democrat because they cater to the poor; which most first generation Hispanics are.

Hispanics will become more financially secure as they become established and the idea of voting for their race will be seen as silly as an Irish-American voting one party because he is Irish-American.
 
I remember reading something showing that even wealthy latinos support the Democratic party overwhelmingly, though not by as much as the poorer Latin Americans. I think it has to do with how the parties are perceived. Ignoring whether its true or not, the Democratic party is perceived as the party of minorities by a lot of the country.

There is a lot of that where I live and it is mostly because even wealthy Hispanics are relatively new to this country themselves.
 
I don't go for the partisan rhetoric but that's mostly accurate.

Hispanics, etc. will become wealthier as they become more established in this country and wonder why so much of their hard earned income is being redistributed to the poor.
Ok maybe the rhetoric was a bit harsh.
I just see the current Democratic party, as the party of less personal freedom.
I think most Hispanics tend towards conservative views of Family and values.
 
Correct.

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The fallacy stems from the belief that Hispanics vote Democrat because Republicans are racist.

The reality is Hispanics vote Democrat because they cater to the poor; which most first generation Hispanics are.

Hispanics will become more financially secure as they become established and the idea of voting for their race will be seen as silly as an Irish-American voting one party because he is Irish-American.
 
Don't believe it.

Look at where most of them come from - Mexico. Over the last 50 years, Mexico has largely voted right wing, and largely been a conservative country.

You want rich latinos living in the USA? OK, take a look at Miami. Take a look at the state of Florida. The hispanic vote is 50% Republican, 50% Democrat in Miami, and Romney will probably win in Florida.

Latinos see themselves as white, they don't consider themselves a minority any more than Italians are a minority.

I remember reading something showing that even wealthy latinos support the Democratic party overwhelmingly, though not by as much as the poorer Latin Americans. I think it has to do with how the parties are perceived. Ignoring whether its true or not, the Democratic party is perceived as the party of minorities by a lot of the country.
 
Don't believe it.

Look at where most of them come from - Mexico. Over the last 50 years, Mexico has largely voted right wing, and largely been a conservative country.

You want rich latinos living in the USA? OK, take a look at Miami. Take a look at the state of Florida. The hispanic vote is 50% Republican, 50% Democrat in Miami, and Romney will probably win in Florida.

Latinos see themselves as white, they don't consider themselves a minority any more than Italians are a minority.

Miami's largest Hispanic group is Cuban though. Cubans tend to vote Republican. The Hispanic vote in the Southwest though, the one's voting 69% Democratic in New Mexico, 76% in Nevada, 75% in California, and 61% in Colorado, that's going to be hard to change. You don't see sudden shifts in the electorate by demographic very often. They will never be a monolithic voting block like African Americans, but I don't think you'll be seeing Republicans winning the Latio vote for a long time.
 
Miami's largest Hispanic group is Cuban though. Cubans tend to vote Republican. The Hispanic vote in the Southwest though, the one's voting 69% Democratic in New Mexico, 76% in Nevada, 75% in California, and 61% in Colorado, that's going to be hard to change. You don't see sudden shifts in the electorate by demographic very often. They will never be a monolithic voting block like African Americans, but I don't think you'll be seeing Republicans winning the Latio vote for a long time.
Precisely. People forget that most of them are here in the first place because they were fleeing a brutal regime in cahoots with the Soviets - resulting in a not-terribly fiscally liberal culture.
 
In the future I think the Republicans will turn into the libertarians... not in name but in everything else. And I think Republicans will eventually try to appeal to minorities even more, especially Hispanics.
 
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