View Poll Results: Long term demographics

Voters
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  • Democratic party becomes much stronger, current platforms remain largely unchanged

    8 27.59%
  • Republican party adopts platform changes to appeal to new demographics, balance is maintained

    8 27.59%
  • republican party changes platform to appeal to new groups, republicans become more dominant

    4 13.79%
  • republican party loses popularity and another party (libertarians?) begins to take hold

    3 10.34%
  • republican party loses popularity and splits conservative votes with another party

    1 3.45%
  • democrats become too diverse (big tent) and split into smaller parties

    2 6.90%
  • other

    8 27.59%
  • goshinabega

    2 6.90%
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Thread: Long term demographics

  1. #31
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkenAsparagus View Post
    Of course the GOP and the Democrats are going to change. You don't see too many segregationist Democrats or Stalwarts Republicans anymore. As the old guard in a party is voted out, dies, or retires, a new set of politicians come in with a new platform. On social issues we going to go left. I would be shocked if in 20 years we didn't have legal weed, gay marriage and some form of amnesty for illegals in all 50 states. As for foreign policy, I think that America will take a step back from its role as global hegemon as other countries grow wealthier and more capable of defending themselves. Economically, I have no idea. Depending on how we deal with our growing debt, we could either see the true end of "era of big government" or we could become more like Western Europe.
    Except as pointed out many times before. It is not the old people who voted for people like Rick Santorum. It was the middle age group who voted for him, and they are not going to die anytime soon.

    Take a look at what Democrats are criticizing Republicans for in public. It is mostly women issues, and being too close to rich people. I think it is likely that Republicans will move left on both economics and social values, but they are going to remain socially conservative. In fact they are likely to go more left economically than socially.
    Last edited by Camlon; 10-17-12 at 07:03 PM.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    If that is the electoral map, then republicans are ****ed.

    You said they will take the "rich" northeast, but even taking Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Jersey, Massachutes Deleware, Pensylvania, Maryland, and Virginia Republicans would still not win.

    I imagine Republicans will lose a lot of elections in the future like Democrats did after the Andrew Johnson before they find a way to appeal to voters again. You said they will to become less social conservative, but people like Rick Santorum were supported by the middle age groups, and not the old. I do not think they will become libertarian, that is a white liberal pipe dream. Minorities tend to be more socially conservative than they are fiscally conservative.

    I think it much more likely that Republicans start appealing to Hispanics. They will do that by toning down the their libertarian roots. While liberterianism is popular among some youth, it is not popular with the majority.
    I think there's more room to grow appealing to fiscal conservatism and toning down social conservativism. Most minorities are socially conservative, but as we see, they vote heavily democratic anyway. Ramping up social conservative values to try and appeal to them will likely not be able to peel off enough of them to offset the fiscally conservative, socially moderate voters they'll lose.
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  3. #33
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    Sigh.

    The GOP is not inherently racist. GOP policies are not inherently racist. Conservatism is not inherently racist.
    I agree with all of the above.

    The reason it may LOOK that way to some, is that support for social welfare policy is often seen as more of a minority issue than a white issue.
    Now this is what I disagree with. The social welfare policies of the GOP may contribute to this perception, but they are not the main driver. The main driver of the perception of the GOP as racist is the racially-tinged rhetoric that frequently emanates from the Republican Party. Newt Gingrich calling Obama the "food stamp president." Rick Santorum saying he doesn't want to give black people handouts. Mitt Romney choosing welfare of all dormant issues to launch a random attack on Obama. Republican politicians casually referring to human beings as "illegals." The Republican commentators and rank-and-file members who have popularized a video of an uneducated, rowdy black woman talking about her "Obama phone." Etc, etc.

    Now that's not to say that every Republican is racist. But it's the rhetoric, far more than the policies, that are hurting the Republicans among minority voters. Granted, the policies certainly don't help...but even here I think it has less to do with social welfare policies and more to do with things like immigration and criminal justice.

    Now, in the longer term, it is very hard to project what will happen. The GOP is currently struggling to redefine itself as a more moderate party than in times past (and it is, despite nonsense about Dubya being "Right wing"...ha!) but as minorities (especially Latinos) become more established and more often achieve prosperity, it is probable that they will trend more conservative.
    On some issues, you might be quite right that Latinos will become more conservative as they grow richer. But the problem for Republicans is that they are currently losing minority voters (both blacks and Latinos) at every rung of the economic ladder, vis a vis their position with white voters. At the very least, they're going to need to tone down the nasty anti-immigrant rhetoric, as Bush did.

    In brief, I think an upswing in minority population is not necessarily an automatic Democrat party win, long term.
    Agreed. I suspect things will continue essentially as they always have, in the face of changing demographics: The two parties will modify their ideas and essentially remain competitive with one another.
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  4. #34
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Why would the Republican party have to change? The party that opposes most racial equality measures is the big D. Most minorities agree with the socially conservative politicians. All the Republicans have to do is overcome the lies put out by the D's and it is all over.
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
    Except as pointed out many times before. It is not the old people who voted for people like Rick Santorum. It was the middle age group who voted for him, and they are not going to die anytime soon.

    In fact take a look at what Democrats are criticizing Republicans for in public. It is mostly women issues, and being too close to rich people. The GOP is not going to become libertarian as most Americans are not libertarian.
    I never said that this was a matter of old people dying or people becoming libertarian. That's just the way these particular issues have been trending in the last couple of years. Just 15 years ago only a quarter of Americans supported gay marriage and weed legalization. Today over half of Americans support both. While support could ebb in the future, there is nothing indicating that they will as their political support means that they will be more present in Americans' lives. Greater familiarity creates greater acceptance. While, I have no idea how things like an Equal Rights Amendment, abortion, or gun control will go in the future, the aforementioned issues have a lot of momentum behind them.
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  6. #36
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Dooble View Post
    Both parties continue to drift to the Left until the new (D) is really Communist, and the new (R) is Socialist.
    Socialism is a left wing ideology not right. I would think it would be reversed. The right heads for the Lenninist view of Communism and the left goes for Democratic Socialism.
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Most people have short memory and forget that it was conservatives in the USA who gave equal rights to blacks and gave women the right to vote.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Democrats will eventually have to figure out a way to pay for their welfare mess and they will fall apart.

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    Re: Long term demographics

    Remember that during the Civil War the Repbulicans were the party of change and of social justice. They were the enviromental party and stood for equality.
    The Democratic Party was Pro Slavery and for big business.

    This stayed that way until the Grant administration when the Republicans abandoned the negro vote and went to bed with big business. The dems filled the void and it has not changed much since.

    Politics change, just alot slower than other things seem to.
    "Those who do not learn from history and condemned to relive it".

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  10. #40
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    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Anagram View Post
    I think there's more room to grow appealing to fiscal conservatism and toning down social conservativism. Most minorities are socially conservative, but as we see, they vote heavily democratic anyway. Ramping up social conservative values to try and appeal to them will likely not be able to peel off enough of them to offset the fiscally conservative, socially moderate voters they'll lose.
    The point is, the fiscal conservative socially liberal group is quite small. The largest conservative group is the social conservative and fiscally conservative group. While gay marriage may not be an issue in the future, gun rights, climate change, abortion, death penalty will.

    Dropping social conservative issues means dropping a huge bunch of economically left wing, socially conservative voters. The GOP can't do that.

    Also, I never talked about ramping up social conservatism. I am not talking about not going socially liberal. I believe the GOP will remain socially conservative, but move very close to Democrats economically. Republicans who care about fiscal issues, and also are somewhat socially conservative do not have much choice.
    Last edited by Camlon; 10-17-12 at 07:27 PM.

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