View Poll Results: Long term demographics

Voters
29. You may not vote on this poll
  • Democratic party becomes much stronger, current platforms remain largely unchanged

    8 27.59%
  • Republican party adopts platform changes to appeal to new demographics, balance is maintained

    8 27.59%
  • republican party changes platform to appeal to new groups, republicans become more dominant

    4 13.79%
  • republican party loses popularity and another party (libertarians?) begins to take hold

    3 10.34%
  • republican party loses popularity and splits conservative votes with another party

    1 3.45%
  • democrats become too diverse (big tent) and split into smaller parties

    2 6.90%
  • other

    8 27.59%
  • goshinabega

    2 6.90%
Multiple Choice Poll.
Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 52

Thread: Long term demographics

  1. #21
    Banned
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The anals of history
    Last Seen
    07-25-15 @ 02:05 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Progressive
    Posts
    10,348

    Re: Long term demographics

    Correct.

    --

    Quote Originally Posted by Donahue View Post
    The fallacy stems from the belief that Hispanics vote Democrat because Republicans are racist.

    The reality is Hispanics vote Democrat because they cater to the poor; which most first generation Hispanics are.

    Hispanics will become more financially secure as they become established and the idea of voting for their race will be seen as silly as an Irish-American voting one party because he is Irish-American.

  2. #22
    Banned
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The anals of history
    Last Seen
    07-25-15 @ 02:05 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Progressive
    Posts
    10,348

    Re: Long term demographics

    Don't believe it.

    Look at where most of them come from - Mexico. Over the last 50 years, Mexico has largely voted right wing, and largely been a conservative country.

    You want rich latinos living in the USA? OK, take a look at Miami. Take a look at the state of Florida. The hispanic vote is 50% Republican, 50% Democrat in Miami, and Romney will probably win in Florida.

    Latinos see themselves as white, they don't consider themselves a minority any more than Italians are a minority.

    Quote Originally Posted by Anagram View Post
    I remember reading something showing that even wealthy latinos support the Democratic party overwhelmingly, though not by as much as the poorer Latin Americans. I think it has to do with how the parties are perceived. Ignoring whether its true or not, the Democratic party is perceived as the party of minorities by a lot of the country.

  3. #23
    Global Moderator
    Moderator
    Anagram's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    St. Louis MO
    Last Seen
    Today @ 09:05 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    6,190

    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    Don't believe it.

    Look at where most of them come from - Mexico. Over the last 50 years, Mexico has largely voted right wing, and largely been a conservative country.

    You want rich latinos living in the USA? OK, take a look at Miami. Take a look at the state of Florida. The hispanic vote is 50% Republican, 50% Democrat in Miami, and Romney will probably win in Florida.

    Latinos see themselves as white, they don't consider themselves a minority any more than Italians are a minority.
    Miami's largest Hispanic group is Cuban though. Cubans tend to vote Republican. The Hispanic vote in the Southwest though, the one's voting 69% Democratic in New Mexico, 76% in Nevada, 75% in California, and 61% in Colorado, that's going to be hard to change. You don't see sudden shifts in the electorate by demographic very often. They will never be a monolithic voting block like African Americans, but I don't think you'll be seeing Republicans winning the Latio vote for a long time.
    There should be Instant Runoff Voting

  4. #24
    Educator Black_Zawisza's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    United States
    Last Seen
    12-20-13 @ 04:15 AM
    Lean
    Libertarian - Right
    Posts
    604

    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Anagram View Post
    Miami's largest Hispanic group is Cuban though. Cubans tend to vote Republican. The Hispanic vote in the Southwest though, the one's voting 69% Democratic in New Mexico, 76% in Nevada, 75% in California, and 61% in Colorado, that's going to be hard to change. You don't see sudden shifts in the electorate by demographic very often. They will never be a monolithic voting block like African Americans, but I don't think you'll be seeing Republicans winning the Latio vote for a long time.
    Precisely. People forget that most of them are here in the first place because they were fleeing a brutal regime in cahoots with the Soviets - resulting in a not-terribly fiscally liberal culture.
    Statist silliness of the day:
    Quote Originally Posted by sangha View Post
    All this talk about "dominion over a third person" is libertarianistic goobledy-gook. "dominion over a third person" means that the 3rd person is "controlled", and our govt does not control people.

  5. #25
    Guru
    celticwar17's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:34 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    4,889

    Re: Long term demographics

    In the future I think the Republicans will turn into the libertarians... not in name but in everything else. And I think Republicans will eventually try to appeal to minorities even more, especially Hispanics.

  6. #26
    Sit Nomine Digna
    Carjosse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Montreal, QC, Canada
    Last Seen
    Today @ 09:34 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    11,190

    Re: Long term demographics

    Here it's depends what minority group it is but it's slowly turning more liberal with minorities sometimes the Conservatives win other times the Liberals or NDP. The Chinese, South Asian, and Natives are our largest groups. The Chinese and Natives usually vote NDP but the South Asians vote Conservative but that's changing. In the U.S. do you have large groups of Chinese and South Asians, if so what do they vote?

  7. #27
    Banned
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Oslo, Norway
    Last Seen
    07-07-16 @ 08:11 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Conservative
    Posts
    2,854

    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Anagram View Post
    By 2040-2050 I expect we could see an electoral map look something like this:

    Attachment 67136211
    If that is the electoral map, then republicans are ****ed.

    You said they will take the "rich" northeast, but even taking Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont, New Jersey, Massachutes Deleware, Pensylvania, Maryland, and Virginia Republicans would still not win.

    I imagine Republicans will lose a lot of elections in the future like Democrats did after the Andrew Johnson before they find a way to appeal to voters again. You said they will to become less social conservative, but people like Rick Santorum were supported by the middle age groups, and not the old. I do not think they will become libertarian, that is a white liberal pipe dream. Minorities tend to be more socially conservative than they are fiscally conservative.

    I think it much more likely that Republicans start appealing to Hispanics. They will do that by toning down the their libertarian roots. While liberterianism is popular among some youth, it is not popular with the majority.
    Last edited by Camlon; 10-17-12 at 06:36 PM.

  8. #28
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    12-26-14 @ 02:05 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,032

    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Grimm View Post
    Don't believe it.

    Look at where most of them come from - Mexico. Over the last 50 years, Mexico has largely voted right wing, and largely been a conservative country.

    You want rich latinos living in the USA? OK, take a look at Miami. Take a look at the state of Florida. The hispanic vote is 50% Republican, 50% Democrat in Miami, and Romney will probably win in Florida.

    Latinos see themselves as white, they don't consider themselves a minority any more than Italians are a minority.
    I'm pretty sure La Raza disagrees.

  9. #29
    Devourer of Poor Children
    DrunkenAsparagus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    DC
    Last Seen
    01-20-16 @ 04:07 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    4,496

    Re: Long term demographics

    Of course the GOP and the Democrats are going to change. You don't see too many segregationist Democrats or Stalwarts Republicans anymore. As the old guard in a party is voted out, dies, or retires, a new set of politicians come in with a new platform. On social issues we going to go left. I would be shocked if in 20 years we didn't have legal weed, gay marriage and some form of amnesty for illegals in all 50 states. As for foreign policy, I think that America will take a step back from its role as global hegemon as other countries grow wealthier and more capable of defending themselves. Economically, I have no idea. Depending on how we deal with our growing debt, we could either see the true end of "era of big government" or we could become more like Western Europe.
    "Doubleplusungood"

    George Orwell

  10. #30
    Global Moderator
    The Hammer of Chaos
    Goshin's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Dixie
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:44 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    44,158

    Re: Long term demographics

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    From your poll options, this is the most likely:


    This is because the GOP's strategy of appealing exclusively to white people is a long-term political loser. At some point, the GOP is going to have to at least tone down the subtle and not-so-subtle racist crap and start appealing to a more diverse crowd. But I think that eventually they WILL do this, simply because they have to. We've had a competitive partisan landscape for over 150 years and that isn't likely to change, due to a political phenomenon similar to evolution: Candidates who are ideologically acceptable to the electorate tend to get elected more often than those who are ideologically unacceptable, and replicate their beliefs within their party over time. So I find it hard to believe that the GOP is going to go extinct just because the demographics are shifting against them; our nation's demographics have ALWAYS been shifting.

    Sigh.

    The GOP is not inherently racist. GOP policies are not inherently racist. Conservatism is not inherently racist.

    The reason it may LOOK that way to some, is that support for social welfare policy is often seen as more of a minority issue than a white issue.


    Now, in the longer term, it is very hard to project what will happen. The GOP is currently struggling to redefine itself as a more moderate party than in times past (and it is, despite nonsense about Dubya being "Right wing"...ha!) but as minorities (especially Latinos) become more established and more often achieve prosperity, it is probable that they will trend more conservative.

    In brief, I think an upswing in minority population is not necessarily an automatic Democrat party win, long term.

    Fiddling While Rome Burns
    ISIS: Carthago Delenda Est
    "I used to roll the dice; see the fear in my enemies' eyes... listen as the crowd would sing, 'now the old king is dead, Long Live the King.'.."

Page 3 of 6 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •